Bengal Bets: Top Picks As Cincinnati Hosts Deshaun Watson And Cleveland

The Bengals are trying to break a five-game losing streak to the Browns.

CINCINNATI — The Bengals are rolling right now as Cleveland comes to town. 

Yet, Bengal Bets unfortunately are not as hot after a hair-pulling losing week. Cincinnati covered as underdogs in the 27-24 win over Kansas City, but the Bengals bottled up Travis Kelce to push him under his receiving yards total.

The game concluded with just 51 points, missing the over by ONE-POINT. Alas, we are back for more this week and ready to get back on track.

Season Record: 16-17 (-3.69 units)

Bengals -5.5 (-110 SI Sportsbook)

© Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The dam has to break at some point right?

Cincinnati has lost five straight to the Browns and eight of the past nine overall. Joe Burrow is 0-4 against this team as they keep relying on a strong rushing attack and pass rush to beat the MVP candidate. I think it all ends Sunday in a nice spot for the Bengals.

Cincinnati is the best cover team in the NFL this season (9-3 ATS, 4-1 at home). They are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games (CLE only loss), and current trends favor them.

• Browns are 1-6 SU/ATS in last seven games after rushing for over 150 yards in consecutive games dating back to last season.
• Cleveland is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS under Stefanski in their last 9 games after a SU win.
• Joe Burrow has faced a team off an ATS cover in their previous game 17 times in his career, he is 16-2 ATS, covering by 8 PPG.
• Burrow in 50-degree or below weather: 9-2 SU, 10-1 ATS, 40 degrees or less: 5-0 SU/ATS

Home splits tell a similar story. Cincinnati’s defense is only 17th in DVOA on the road but fourth at home, while Cleveland’s home offense is best in the league at home but just 16th on the road.

The entire Browns offense doesn't play as soundly in these environments, and that was with Jacoby Brissett. The backup QB has been good this season (ninth in CPOE + EPA in 2022), while Deshaun Watson was an (expected) disaster last week. Watson went 12 of 22 passing for 131 yards and 1 interception in his first regular-season game in 700 days.

That was against the 23rd-ranked dropback EPA defense this season in Houston—Cincinnati ranks ninth in that category. Burrow and the Bengals also will not turn the ball over four times like Houston. Time to end the streak comfortably.

Joe Burrow O15.5 Rushing Yards (-120 SI Sportsbook)

© Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Bengals have added another wrinkle to the offense over the last couple of weeks: 78 combined rushing yards from their quarterback.

The Athletic's Nate Tice pointed out after the Chiefs win that Cincinnati has run Burrow on 21 designed carries this season, one away from doubling his entire 2021 total. That knee is fully healthy and comfortable now. opening up Burrow's hidden attribute.

I'd be surprised if he goes over 30 yards again like he has the past two weeks, but there's no reason not to keep using him. Cleveland has been great against rushing QBs this season (allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to the positionc). 

I'm going against that trend this week. Cleveland is one of the worst tackling teams in the league and will let Burrow slip through enough to hit 16 yards (31st PFF tackling grade). 

Nick Chubb O74.5 Rushing Yards (-120 SI Sportsbook)

Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

We hit on his over back on Halloween, and he just keeps chugging on the ground. Chubb's gone over this total in 9-of-12 games this season and has been held under 56 yards rushing once, against Buffalo in Week 11 (Bills: seventh rush EPA/allowed).

DJ Reader is back for the Bengals this time around, but they aren't world-beaters against the run lately. They rank 24th in rushing EPA and 29th in rushing success rate over the last two weeks.

With Watson still trying to get back to his 2020 level of play, Cleveland running backs carried the ball 31 times last week, with Chubb getting 17 for 80 yards. I see a similar outing this week—Chubb stays productive but doesn't crush one of the best tackling teams in the NFL (sixth in PFF tackling grade).

Cincinnati's clash against Cleveland kicks off at 1 p.m ET this Sunday on CBS. Fans can watch on fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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