Five Expert Prop Bet Picks for Cardinals-Vikings
It's nearly time for action between the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings, which means another opportunity for money to be made.
Here's five prop bets from across the web to consider for Cardinals-Vikings:
Pro Football Focus
Irv Smith: OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards
Playable to 33.5
• "Tight end receiving yards vs the Cardinals have been an auto bet all season, and there’s no reason to stop now. Every single opposing TE1 has gone over 30.5 receiving yards this season vs Arizona, which has allowed 539 total receiving yards to tight ends this year (most in the NFL)."
• "While it has improved since the start of the season, the performance of the top two Cardinals' LBs is still under expectation in coverage. They allow a pretty high EPA/target, which should help Smith Jr."
• "Smith Jr. has gone over this total in 3/6 games this year, and the Vikings offense should improve coming off the bye."
Covers.com
Irv Smith Anytime TD Scorer
"Smith missed last year with an injury but has been great in six games so far this season. He’s found the end zone twice, hauling in 18 catches for 140 yards. He’s on track to exceed his best season in 2020, in which he caught 30 passes for 365 yards and five touchdowns.
"If you look at the Cardinals' defense, they’ve been poor against TEs this season. Only the Seahawks have allowed more yardage per game to the position that the Cardinals, who have given up 77 receiving yards to TEs per game. They also have the second-worst record in terms of touchdowns scored by opposition TEs, allowing 0.86 touchdowns per game to the position.
"With Smith being targeted in 20% of routes run, it makes sense to back the 24-year-old to score here.
"My best bet: Irv Smith Jr. anytime touchdown (+200)"
Props.com
Kyler Murray Over 240.5 Passing Yards
"This total is the exact reason you need to be line shopping. Murray is set at 240.5 passing yards on FanDuel, but he’s set at roughly 250.5 passing yards everywhere else. It varies slightly, but this is by far the lowest total available.
"Murray’s been disappointing this season, but he gets a great matchup this week. He’ll face off against the Minnesota Vikings, who are allowing 272.0 passing yards per game this season. They’re also giving up a league-high 8.4 yards per attempt in 2022.
"We’ve seen some bad quarterbacks find success against Minnesota. Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, and Justin Fields all found success against them. Their Week 1 performance against Aaron Rodgers is also looking less impressive by the week.
"Murray got DeAndre Hopkins back last week, although he also lost Hollywood Brown. Hopkins is a comfort player for the quarterback, though, and he should be airing the ball out this week.
"This total is set slightly low for if Murray is needed to throw the ball 35+ times in this game."
Justin Jefferson Over 87.5 Receiving Yards
"Jefferson burst onto the scene with 184 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 1, and he was labeled as the best receiver in the NFL. He then struggled with 62 yards over his next two games, and everyone forgot about him. Since then, he’s recorded 147, 154, and 107 receiving yards.
"Jefferson gets an elite matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. He’s a player that moves around the formation, but they don’t have any cornerback that will be able to stick with him. He’ll have his biggest edges on the outside, though.
"Arizona is giving up 258.6 passing yards per game this season. More importantly, they’ve given up a league-high 1,112 yards after the catch (YAC) in 2022. Jefferson is elite with the ball in his hands, and he’s averaging 6.5 YAC per reception this season.
"The other aspect of this play is that Arizona’s performed well against the run this season. It’s easier to beat them through the air than on the ground, and Jefferson should see double-digit targets in this game. He’s a great bet for 100+ yards once again."
Sharp Football Analysis
Kyler Murray Over 26.5 Completions
"The Vikings have allowed more completions than their opponents average versus other teams in six of seven games this season. Only the Saints fell short, though that was likely influenced by a quarterback change 一 it was Andy Dalton’s first start.
"Murray is averaging 26.3 completions per game, so it would stand to reason we should expect 27 or more in this game.
"The reason for the increased completions against the Vikings is their use of the combination of zone coverage without a blitz. No team uses that combination more than Minnesota at 73% 一 the league average is 55.6%, per TruMedia.
"It’s also worth noting Minnesota’s use of this defensive approach has not dipped below 59% in any game 一 so there’s little risk of an altered approach against Arizona throwing this trend off.
"The combination of zone coverage with no blitz makes big plays down the field less likely, but it does increase the availability of short, easy throws.
"Take a look at Murray’s completion rate based on different defenses:
- vs zone/no blitz: 72.5%
- vs all other schemes: 55.3%
"Expect Arizona’s short passing game to have success in this matchup, and take the over on Murray’s completions prop."
Thank you for making All Cardinals your number one choice for Arizona Cardinals news, updates, analysis, and more. Be sure to give us a like on Facebook and subscribe to our YouTube channel for more Cards content.
Top Arizona Cardinals Stories
Steve Keim Addresses Trade Deadline Rumors
Vikings Provide Tall Task for Cardinals Defense
Cardinals Elevate Two Linemen Ahead of Sunday
How to Watch, Stream, Listen: Cardinals-Vikings
PFF: DeAndre Hopkins Should Dominate Vikings
Cardinals WR Robbie Anderson Listed as Fantasy Football Sleeper
Cardinals Have One of League's Thinnest Rosters According to ESPN
