Final 7-Round Mock: What the Cowboys 'Will' Do in this NFL Draft
It’s my final Dallas Cowboys 7-round mock NFL Draft, and for this edition it’s all about what the Cowboys ‘will’ do.
Now, what they ‘will’ do is within reason, of course. We don’t know what the 16 picks will be in front of the Cowboys in the first round, nor do we know how the rest of the draft will transpire. As we get deeper into this mock draft, there’s plenty of guesswork. Plus, we don’t know how the Cowboys have their big board set up. But some of it is educated, thanks to the reporting of our Mike Fisher and the rest of the CowboysSI.com team. Plus, there’s 10 different mock drafts over the past three months to help out, too.
So, what will the Cowboys do? To start the first round, I ran TheDraftNetwork.com simulation 10 times, taking the Cowboys’ first-round pick, but also watching closely what players were taken BEFORE the Cowboys came on the clock. The idea is to get an idea of which players we think the Cowboys have their eye on in the first round and if they were falling off the board before No. 17. From there, we kept running the simulation, with an emphasis on taking players we believe are on the Cowboys’ radar entering the draft.
So, let’s take the first round ...
FIRST ROUND: CB A.J. Terrell, Clemson
We think the Cowboys have several players in their wheelhouse for the first round, including Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson and LSU pass rusher K’Lavon Chaisson. Unfortunately, in the vast majority of the simulations I ran, neither player darkened the door at No. 17.
Henderson never fell to that spot once. Chaisson fell twice (and the Cowboys, we think, are secretly hoping he falls). Two particular safety favorites of mine, Alabama’s Xavier McKinney and LSU’s Grant Delpit, were both there at No. 17, but I don’t think the Cowboys are gravitating toward that position in the first round, unless all of the corners they’re targeting are off the board, which isn’t likely to happen in 16 selections. I’m betting the Cowboys feel as if they have enough at safety with the signing of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, even though he’s only on the roster for a year right now.
All along, I’ve felt the Cowboys were going to address defense in some way, and Terrell would accomplish that. The lanky corner from Clemson came out as a junior and progressed nicely during his career with the Tigers, winning a national title in the process. TDN only has Terrell as the No. 44 overall player, but I’m betting the Cowboys have Terrell higher on their board because of Terrell’s height, coverage ability and the need after losing Byron Jones.
And corners tend to end up rated higher on most teams’ boards based on the inherent difficulty of finding a quality player at the position.
Plus, our Mike Fisher reported on Tuesday that Terrell could be a ‘fall-back’ if a player like Henderson isn’t there at No. 17. If it’s not Terrell, it could be Alabama’s Trevon Diggs, another corner the Cowboys have interest in. But I think the Cowboys will take Terrell, assuming he’s on the board at No. 17. But as some analysts have pointed out recently, the Cowboys could face a ‘hard’ decision with this pick, depending upon who is there.
So, with Terrell on the roster, we move to the second round. I ran the simulator five times in this case, taking Terrell in the first round to get a feel for what might be there in the second round. Additionally, I was armed with what we believe are some potential Cowboys targets.
SECOND ROUND: DL Marlon Davidson, Auburn
Here’s where the spread of potential options expands. Our reporting tells me the Cowboys have an eye on Baylor’s Denzel Mims or TCU’s Jalen Reagor at wide receiver. But the simulator tells that it’s quite likely the pair will be off the board by the end of the first round. Now, if they fall, keep an eye on that.
Same goes for LSU’s Grant Delpit. The safety kept taking a tumble in the simulations I ran, with Delpit, at times, being available when the Cowboys hit the clock in Round 2.
Other players we think the Cowboys have significant interest in include Southern Illinois safety Jeremy Chinn and Davidson, who popped up a couple of times in my second-round simulations, which leads me to believe the tackle could be there. Tackle doesn’t feel like a primary need this year with the signings of Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe.
Meanwhile, maybe Davidson has the talent to step into a rotation right away and be a starter in Year 2.
So why Davidson over Chinn? Pedigree may be a part of it. Davidson played for one of the top programs in the country, while Chinn played for the FCS SIU Salukis. Under personnel boss Will McClay, Dallas likes those big-school guys. This may play a factor.
One final note. I haven’t heard much about the Cowboys having interest in Alabama defensive end Terrell Lewis. But, Lewis kept popping up in the second round and, given the Cowboys’ need on the edge, he could be an option.
So the Cowboys have address the secondary and the defensive line. What does Round 3 have in store? More simulations, more potential names to consider.
THIRD ROUND: TE Devin Asiasi, UCLA
Yes, the Cowboys’ quest for a tight end continues. You can basically set your watch to it. The Cowboys usually carry three tight ends into the season. With Jason Witten now gone for good, it’s Blake Jarwin as the penciled-in starter.
Yes, Jarwin would appear to be the entrenched starter on paper, having signed a four-year, $22 million deal this offseason. But the Cowboys have an out after the 2021 season that will only cost them a $2 million dead money hit. The Cowboys just signed blocking tight end Blake Bell, and Dalton Schultz is still here in the post-Witten era.
Taking Asiasi now allows the Cowboys to lock in a lower-cost option beyond 2021 who has a combo skill set. He can block and he can catch passes. His height, 6-foot-3 and 257 pounds, is desirable. Scouts feel he has upside and the potential to develop. ... and we think Dallas likes Asiasi, as we write here.
If the Cowboys address the defense in the first and second rounds, offense makes sense in the third. It could be wide receiver, but the targets we’re certain the Cowboys have on their minds entering this draft were off the board well before the third round.
So now we move into Day 3, the final four rounds. Now the draft is like a scatterplot — anything can happen. And beyond the third round, we have less intel on who the Cowboys are interested in. So, from here, the guesses are less educated, but they’re seeking players and fits that make sense.
FOURTH ROUND: WR Devin Duvernay, Texas
The Cowboys will come away with a wide receiver in this draft. I feel very certain about that. The wide receiver position group is so deep in this draft that the Cowboys could come away with a rotation-ready player as late as the fourth or the fifth round, and as this draft transpires I think a player like K.J. Hill of Ohio State can be there at the start of Day 3. I’ve seen Hill in person. He has a real understanding of the game, knows how to play the slot, has solid hands and runs quality routes.
In my mind, with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup on the roster, all Hill would have to do is come in, win a job and be the No. 3 receiver.
But there's a problem. I fear I like Hill way more than the Cowboys do.
So ... let's go to the University of Texas and give them receiver Devin Duvernay.
ROUND 5: S Brandon Jones, Texas
No, it's not quite the same as trading for Jamal Adams. But ... The Cowboys could use some depth at safety with the departure of Jeff Heath and the uncertain fate of the unsigned Kavon Frazier, so the Cowboys pull the trigger on a quality college starter (UT again!) who gets time to develop behind Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Xavier Woods.
ROUND 5 (COMPENSATORY): LB David Woodward, Utah State
I’ve seen Woodward twice in the past two seasons and he’s a quality backer who can provide depth behind a starting lineup of Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee. Woodward is afforded time to develop and can be a special teams contributor right away.
ROUND 7: QB James Morgan, Florida International
Running back Darius Anderson of TCU is a nice dart throw as the Cowboys seek some depth at a position where they’re set with starter Ezekiel Elliott and backup Tony Pollard. Anderson is a good local player the Cowboys have seen plenty of times and they know he can be a third back and special-teams contributor in Year 1.
Am I right? I’m quite humble enough to say, probably not. But let’s find out starting Thursday night.
