Setting the Stage for the Dolphins-Chiefs Wild-Card Playoff Matchup
The Miami Dolphins will look for their upset victory when they face the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday night.
Here's all the pertinent info for this Dolphins-Chiefs wild-card playoff matchup:
MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-6) vs. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-6)
DATE: Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024
TIME: 8 p.m. ET
SITE: Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, Mo.
WEATHER FORECAST: The temperature between 8 and 11 p.m. ET around Kansas City is projected to range from minus-4 to minus-6 degrees, according to AccuWeather, with partly cloudy skies and no expected precipitation. The wind is expected to be 14-15 mph with gusts up to 32 mph. There is a wind chill warning in effect until Tuesday at noon.
TV: Peacock; NBC-6 in Miami-Dade and Broward; KSHB-41 in the Kansas City area
Announcers: Mike Tirico (play-by-play), Jason Garrett (color analyst), Kaylee Hartung (color analyst)
SI Sportsbook betting line: Chiefs by 4.5 (over/under 43.5)
Dolphins — CB Xavien Howard (foot) is out; S DeShon Elliott (calf), S Jevon Holland (knees), RB Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle) and WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) are questionable.
Chiefs — T Wanya Morris (concussion) is out; WR Justyn Ross (hamstring) and Kadarius Toney (hip/ankle) are questionable.
DOLPHINS-CHIEFS PLAYOFF HISTORY AND CONNECTIONS
Playoff history: The Dolphins lead 3-0
Playoff meetings:
Dec. 25, 1971 at Kansas City — Dolphins 27, Chiefs 24 (OT)
Jan. 5, 1991 at Miami — Dolphins 17, Chiefs 16
Dec. 31, 1994 at Miami — Dolphins 27, Chiefs 17
Former Chiefs players with the Dolphins:
WR Tyreek Hill (2016-21), DE Emmanuel Ogbah (2019), LB Melvin Ingram (2021), LB Justin Houston (2011-18), offensive assistant Kolby Smith (RB from 2007-09)
Former Chiefs coaches with the Dolphins:
Assistant head coach/tight ends coach Jon Embree, CB coach/pass game specialist Sam Madison
Former Dolphins players with the Chiefs:
DB coach Dave Merritt, RB La'Mical Perine (on Miami practice squad)
Former Dolphins coaches with the Chiefs:
None
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CHIEFS SCOUTING REPORT
The Chiefs enter the playoffs after winning the AFC West title for an astounding eighth consecutive time, with QB Patrick Mahomes still yet to play a postseason game on the road. This was not a typical dominant regular season performance by the Chiefs, though, who failed to land one of the top two seeds in the AFC for the first time since Mahomes became the starting QB in 2018. The problems with the Chiefs wide receivers, including an inability to get open and a litany of dropped passes, have been well documented and for a change it was the defense (ranked second in the NFL) that led the way for Andy Reid's team.
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THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL WIN ...
As we've mentioned before, this isn't a typical (see dominant) Kansas City team and the Chiefs just seem ripe for the taking. In part because of the wide receiver problems, Mahomes didn't put up Mahomes-like numbers and tight end Travis Kelce failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015. Even with all their injuries on defense, the Dolphins certainly have a shot to contain the K.C. offense and taking the ball away like Miami did against Buffalo last week would be huge. On the flip side, the Dolphins had success running the ball against the Bills in the first half to the tune of 101 yards and that kind of production over the full game against a Chiefs defense that's much better against the pass could get the job done.
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THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL LOSE ...
Just because the Dolphins haven't won a playoff game since 2000 and are 1-10 in their past 11 road postseason games, we're not going to use history against this particularly Dolphins team because it doesn't have any bearing. The bigger concerns here are all the injuries on defense with the team's outside linebackers out, Xavien Howard out, Jerome Baker out, and possibly both starting safeties as well. So if the Chiefs offense can stop from self-destructing as it did often in the regular season, the Dolphins could have a hard time on defense if Zach Sieler and Christian Wilkins can't dominate up front. Offensively, the Dolphins have yet to have a good 60-minute performance against a playoff-caliber opponent. The first game against the Chiefs was a perfect example, as the Dolphins did nothing in the first half before scoring twice after halftime. The Dolphins will need more consistency. QB Tua Tagovailoa threw two interceptions in each of the final two games and that's a recipe for disaster in this game if it were to happen again.
FINAL DOLPHINS-CHIEFS PREDICTION
The weather likely will have some kind of impact on this game, but it's too simplistic to suggest that plays into the Chiefs' favor because they're at home and more familiar with colder temperatures. It's still going to come down to execution and very possibly to which team commits the fewest mistakes. The Dolphins really don't have a very good track record against playoff-caliber opposition and that goes back to last season, so there's reason to be skeptical about the ability to raise their game here. The bottom line is we'd expect a close game throughout with the outcome likely not decided until the end. Chiefs 23, Dolphins 20
