2023 NFL Draft: QBs C.J. Stroud and Hendon Hooker’s Draft Stocks Going in Opposite Directions
In the final days leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft, careful observers can observe two simultaneous phenomena: Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud is falling down draft boards and Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker’s draft stock is quickly rising.
These two developments are loosely tied to recent news items. In the case of Stroud, his pre-draft process appears to have caused some teams to question whether he has the capacity or leadership ability to be an NFL quarterback. He reportedly scored abysmally low on a cognitive test (the “S2” test) and apparently skipped out on attending the Manning Passing Academy after committing to go.
Both of these stories are somewhat disputed. The co-founder of S2 hinted that the score reported for Stroud was inaccurate and/or unrepresentative of Stroud’s cognitive capabilities given the context. And ESPN’s Ryan Clark pushed back on the reports about the Manning Passing Academy. Still, Stroud’s chances of going No. 1 overall are falling fast, and he might not go No. 2 either. Indeed, some think Stroud could fall to the Indianapolis Colts at No. 4. Might he go even lower than that?
Meanwhile, Hooker’s rise is at least partially attributable to a promising update from Hooker’s doctor on the status of the star quarterback’s torn ACL. Moreover, Hooker has reportedly impressed teams during the pre-draft process with his character and leadership.
It all amounts to the following: Stroud down, Hooker up.
Usually, reports of players’ draft stocks “rising” or “falling” usually just mean that the media has caught up to where NFL teams have been on certain players for a while. These stories reflect the lag between NFL teams developing actual perceptions of prospects and media types getting a sense of where the prospects will fall in the draft.
Is that what is happening here?
To begin, part of the reason that the quarterback class is still somewhat unsettled going into the draft is that the group does not have a clear-cut top prospect—all of the top guys have a perceived flaw. Stroud might have a cognitive deficit as compared to the other quarterbacks, Hooker is an older prospect (he is 25) coming off a torn ACL, Alabama’s Bryce Young checks in significantly smaller than the average quarterback, Florida’s Anthony Richardson needs a lot of development and coaching, and Kentucky’s Will Levis had a terrible 2022 season.
In one way or another, each quarterback in this year’s class has some aspect of their game that gives NFL teams pause. The class has no Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow, or other top-flight quarterback prospect slated to go first overall. These realities do not mean that all of the 2023 quarterbacks will fail; in fact, the possibility exists that all of these quarterbacks develop into effective starters. But history has shown that this result is unlikely. The more probable outcome is that most of these quarterbacks will turn out to be mediocre. The multi-million dollar question is: which ones?
Throughout this process, many have considered Stroud to be the best quarterback in the class. That perception was (rightly) the result of some stellar film that Stroud put together at Ohio State. He is strikingly accurate with the football at all levels of the field, and he undoubtedly has the tools to succeed at the next level. The cognition test result—if accurately reported—may be cause for concern, and the Manning Passing Academy story (again, if true) may be evidence of questionable character. But when the helmet and shoulder pads come on, Stroud has proven that he can match up against anyone in this year’s group. NFL teams should be wary about letting the pre-draft process obscure Stroud’s immense talent. As Stroud commented, “I'm a football player. ... I'm not an S2 taker.”
Meanwhile, Hooker’s recent meteoric rise is not a shock. For a period of time this season, Hooker was the best quarterback in college football. He out-dueled Young to beat Alabama, and he had his Tennessee Volunteers on the way to one of the most special seasons in program history before his injury. In a mock draft published at the end of October 2022, I projected Hooker would go No. 2 overall. Hooker’s tape shows rare arm talent and a knack for shredding defenses over the top. But Hooker sustained a torn ACL, knocking him out of the first-round conversation, and other quarterbacks filled the void. In addition, analysts questioned whether Hooker’s success in Tennessee’s unconventional offense would translate to the NFL. Others have pointed out Hooker’s advanced age—25 is a bit old for a rookie.
Still, with encouraging news from Hooker’s doctor, NFL teams have gone back and watched the tape on Hooker. They appear to like what they see. No surprise there: Hooker had a remarkable 2022 campaign and displayed all the traits that one would want to see in a pro quarterback. The fact that he would be 25 when drafted should not be a major concern, either. If a team drafts Hooker in the first round, it would have him for four years of team control plus the possibility of a fifth-year option. That period of time represents Hooker’s age 25-30 timeframe—perhaps that would include some of the post-prime years of, say, a linebacker or a running back, but ages 25-30 represent merely one stretch of a quarterback’s long timeline of golden years.
As teams have taken a second look at Hooker, the Tennessee signal caller appears to be back in the first-round conversation. He deserves to be there. Hooker boasts NFL size, racked up stellar collegiate numbers, and showcased the arm talent needed to be a superstar in the league. If his ACL is fine, he may be the most complete (flawless?) quarterback prospect in the class.
Stroud and Hooker both likely end up as first-rounders this evening. Where they go is the big question. If Stroud falls out of the Top Five, it would constitute a “slide” down the draft board. If Hooker makes it into the first round, it would be a big victory for the Tennessee alum. When the dust settles, several teams will have their new franchise quarterbacks after tonight.
