Second-Rate Performances in Second Half Prove Costly

The Green Bay Packers have been destroyed in the second half this season. They’ve got to get that fixed before Sunday’s game at the powerful Buffalo Bills.

Author:
Bill Huber
Updated:
Oct 25, 2022 3:55 PM EDT
Original:
Oct 25, 2022

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – About 40 years ago, the old Continental Basketball Association devised a new way to keep standings. The team that won the game got three points. Plus, an additional point was available for each of the four quarters.

The Packers would be getting skunked during the third and fourth quarters.

With the first seven weeks of the NFL season complete and a Sunday night showdown looming against the powerhouse Buffalo Bills on Sunday night, the Packers have been outscored by 43 points in the second half. Only one team is worse.

By being half-good, the Packers have been mostly bad, their three-game losing streak putting them in an early hole in the NFC standings.

If football were a 30-minute game, the Packers would be a powerhouse. Thanks to a 21-point advantage in the second quarter, the Packers have outscored their opponents 82-60 in the first half. The second half, though, has been a disaster. The offense has ground to a halt and the defense barely has been competitive.

During their three-game losing streak, the Packers’ defense has played 11 possessions in which the opponent tried to move the ball. It’s given up nine scores – five touchdowns and four field goals. One of the two defensive wins wasn’t even a win. On Sunday at Washington, the Commanders’ first three possessions resulted in a touchdown, field goal and field goal. On the fourth, the Commanders punted but not before getting two first downs and draining most of the clock.

“Our job is to go out and slam the door when we have to slam the door,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said last week. Nonetheless, speaking a few days before the Washington game, he disputed the premise that his group had a second-half problem.

“I don’t think there’s anything really to read into or a trend that’s happening,” he said. “We talk about all the time defensively, make them earn every blade of grass they get. We have to do that for 60 minutes.”

Coach Matt LaFleur did see a problem on Monday.

“That's something that we looked at and it's definitely the consistency at which we play,” he said. “We gave up a lot of third-down conversions in the second half. I think the penalties, we had some situations where it was second-and-6, we get a TFL, it’s about to be third-and-7, we get called for a defensive holding, first down. We’ve got to do a better job of making sure we get all 11 guys on the same page doing their responsibility, because there were some times we had some miscommunication. That stuff leads to drive-extending plays and explosive plays, and you can’t have it.”

They certainly can’t for Sunday night’s game against Josh Allen and the Bills. Allen is the favorite to win this year’s MVP. He is second in the NFL in passer rating, touchdown passes and yards per attempt. Combined with rushing – he leads the team in rushing yards, rushing average and rushing touchdowns – he’s accounted for 19 of the team’s 20 offensive touchdowns.

There’s no letdown with Allen and Co. The Bills are No. 1 in the NFL with a second-half scoring differential of plus-67 points.

Green Bay’s problem isn’t limited to the defense, though that’s the most glaring considering the talent and expectations on that side of the ball. The problem with LaFleur’s offense can be summed up in two words.

Third down.

According to Stathead, the Packers’ beleaguered offense actually has been better on a yards-per-play basis in the second half but it’s been an absolute catastrophe on third down. The average third-down play has required 5.8 yards to convert. That’s the second-shortest distance. Yet its 33.3 percent conversion rate ranks 25th.

Games are won and lost on third down, especially in the second half. On third down during the third and fourth periods, Aaron Rodgers is 15-of-24 with just eight conversions and a passer rating of 78.0. Allen is 14-of-19 with 13 conversions and a passer rating of 132.3. Including rushing, Allen has moved the chains 18 times on third down in the second half compared to only nine for Rodgers.

Put simply, when it’s time to make the big plays to win games, Allen – with two big-time weapons in the passing game – has made them and Rodgers has not.

Overall on third down in the second half, Buffalo ranks second on offense (52.8 percent) and eighth on defense (35.1 percent). During the losing streak, Green Bay ranks 28th on third down on offense (28.6 percent, even while needing only 5.6 yards) and 27th on defense (52.9 percent).

“The negative is we’re sitting here at 3-4. The positive is I think a lot of this stuff is correctible,” LaFleur said. “I think our players are urgent with it, but it’s got to be better, and it’s got to get better like yesterday.”