What's Next for Diontae Johnson and the Pittsburgh Steelers?
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson was selected as a Pro Bowl alternate replacing Cincinnati Bengals Ja'Marr Chase following a breakout season in which he set career highs in catches, yards and touchdowns.
Accompanied by three of his Steelers teammates, Johnson did participate in the all star game, catching one pass for 33 yards. He also chipped in a two point conversion, beating Darius Slay on a slant route.
Despite the all star game not resembling actual football whatsoever, it was a celebratory end to a strong campaign.
This is a critical offseason for Johnson who is entering the final year of his rookie contract after being selected with the 66th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. His numbers have improved every year that he's been in the league. He's established himself as one of the elite separators at his position with his absurd ability to get in and out of his breaks without losing a beat.
The Steelers must now decide if they think Johnson is worth ponying up the money for to lock in for their future.
After finishing 27th in the NFL in receiving yards in 2020, Johnson jumped up the leaderboards all the way to 10th in 2021. With back to back productive WR1 seasons in Pittsburgh, he's positioned himself to get paid quite handsomely. The question then becomes what could Johnson be looking for and does Pittsburgh value him the same?
Overthecap valued his 2021 season at $12.52 million while he accounted for just $884k of the Steelers salary cap which was quite the bargain. Spotrac views his market value at 5 years, $77.89 million, just right under $16 million per year moving forward. They compare his numbers against similar aged players that have signed contracts in the last couple of years.
While paying a receiver 15 million per year might seem steep, that would put Johnson inside the current top 20 of the position. Courtland Sutton (26) signed a 4-year, $60 million dollar extension with $18M of that guaranteed.
Johnson, 25, has been healthier and more productive than Sutton over the past two seasons which makes that deal seem like the potential floor when it comes to his asking price. With continued yearly improvement, this would be the type of deal that could potentially look like a bargain two or three years down the line.
Pittsburgh could elect to let Johnson suit up on the final year of his contract, which would be a gamble for both sides. Johnson could see his value fall due to injury or poor quarterback play depending on who it is behind center. The Steelers could also risk waiting too long and Johnson increasing his value even more, costing them more in the long run. The illustrious franchise tag is always a potential, non player-friendly option.
One thing that is for sure is that the Pittsburgh Steelers are not equipped right now to lose him for any particular reason, in the present or future. That could change if the Steelers were to acquire a tantalizing talent at the position come April but as of right now, Johnson is the clear WR1 for this squad.
JuJu Smith-Schuster will become a free agent in the next couple of weeks and it's currently a pretty murky outlook in regards to him returning. Aside from Chase Claypool, who's currently the teams Z receiver and might be even better suited for the slot, they have virtually nothing behind him at the position.
The things that Pittsburgh asks their X receiver to do is pretty unique in comparison to other players at his position around the league. Per Sports Info Solutions, Johnson led the NFL in catches in isolation with 53, eight more than the next best receiver, Stefon Diggs from Buffalo.
What this means is that he doesn't often benefit from stacked alignments or rub routes, he gets a good amount of his production matched up one on one, often times with the opponents best cover corner. To borrow an NBA term, Johnson is the Steelers bucket getter, they trust him to win on his own versus press and he can run any route imaginable.
What the Steelers need from Johnson moving forward is more consistency. The highs are exhilarating but the lows are every bit as demoralizing. While he was able to cut his drop rate in half this past season, the issues popped up too frequently down the stretch.
In the final five games of the season, Johnson dropped five passes while committing three false start penalties to go along with a lost fumble. Johnson led NFL receivers in penalties with nine, seven of those were false starts. Those types of unforced errors are enough to drive coaches insane.
While previous production does play a heavy factor when discussing future outlooks, contract extensions are handed out based on what a player will be moving forward. There is little doubt that Johnson is capable of being a productive starting receiver at this level. Figuring out where his potential ceiling while also solving the mystery of his inconsistencies is a little bit more of a projection.
The Steelers have plenty of time to figure out this answer but with draft season ahead, a deal may not be discussed in depth until later in the offseason. Pittsburgh has made a habit of taking notable contract extension talks down to the wire in recent years, such was the case with T.J. Watt and even Cam Heyward and Joe Haden before him.
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