John Tavares is Maple Leafs X-Factor in Elimination Game

John Tavares is the Toronto Maple Leafs' x-factor with a chance to eliminate the Ottawa Senators.

Apr 26, 2025; Ottawa, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center John Tavares (91) evades a check from Ottawa Senators center Nick Cousins (21) in game four of the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Canadian Tire Centre. Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images / Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images

The Ottawa Senators will throw everything at the Toronto Maple Leafs in their Game 5 meeting. The Sens are trailing 3-1 in the series and face elimination in Toronto.

With a shot at the second round, the Maple Leafs will turn to John Tavares to guide the way. The 34-year-old former captain has been excellent in the first-round matchup against the Senators. He has the chance to continue his hot start in the postseason with another strong showing in Game 5.

Tavares is even more important with the chance to eliminate the Senators for another crucial reason. When the Leafs have their opportunity to end a series, their star players struggle to score. NHL.com writer Dave McCarthy cleverly pointed out that in Toronto's last 13 opportunities to eliminate their postseason opponent, they are 1-12. A reason being Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander have gone dry offensively. The trio has combined for just six goals in those 13 contests. As a result, the Leafs can't put teams away and often let series go longer than they should.

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander have combined for six goals in 13 games since 2017 where a win would have eliminated an opponent.#LeafsForever are 1-12 in those games.

— Dave McCarthy (@DaveAMcCarthy) April 29, 2025

That's where Tavares comes in. He has three goals and two assists in five games. He's found success at even strength and on the power play, with his first two goals of the series coming with the man advantage.

According to MoneyPuck's game data, he's excelling in two key areas in this series: getting shots on net and rebound generation. Of his 22 shot attempts in the series, 13 have registered as shots on goal. Four have missed the net, and five were blocked. Tavares is embodying the mantra of "no bad shot in the playoffs," and getting everything he can towards the goalie.

The shots on net from Tavares are also giving the goalie trouble. He's created four rebounds with his shots on goal, which far exceed MoneyPuck's expected model. His expected rebounds created is 1.1. It's a small piece of the offensive puzzle, but it demonstrates that Tavares is putting shots on net that the goalie is having a bit more difficulty corralling.

The Senators are focusing their defensive efforts on stopping Toronto's superstar trio in a must-win game. That leaves Tavares, one of the most dangerous scorers in the league, a prime opportunity to steal the show. With the Leafs' hoping to advance, the veteran forward is their x-factor.

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