Perfect Week 10 FanDuel DFS Showdown Lineup: Value Courtland Sutton, Tyler Lockett
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We have arrived back to Thursday and that means football. The Raiders will travel to the Broncos tonight and they will be up against it. Denver is without Patrick Surtain II, but they will still project to win this game by a wide margin. As for the Raiders, they will look to find new success in a new look offense. They lose Jakobi Meyers to a trade but get back Brock Bowers for the second straight game. Let's dive into the analytics of it all.
MVP/CAPTAIN PICKS
As per usual, quarterbacks and kickers appear to be the highest owned commodities in this game. For that reason, they will not be in our MVP slot.
The Broncos enter this game as 8.5-Point favorites. They imply to score 25 Points while the Raiders project to score about 17. This all adds up logically. The Raiders add Lockett as Meyers leaves. They do have Bowers to lean on, but in a tough matchup. Las Vegas faces the NFL's best defense on a short week, at elevation. It spells a strugglesome day of scoring.
Our highest upside enlies with the Broncos. JK Dobbins is our best value asset on paper and he also projects to score more fantasy points than any other Broncos non-quarterback.
Denver runs the ball heavily to Dobbins as he has 57% of team rushing yards, 40% more than anyone else. Denver runs the ball at a 57% rate, on par with their Red Zone offense. In a projected blowout, they could run the ball over 50%. Dobbins also projects very likely to score a touchdown, being the only player confidently over 50% to find the endzone.
If we did take any other player, we have to look for supreme upside. The Raiders play zone defense at a very high rate. The Broncos run a west coast, spread offense, especially against the zone. That makes it very difficult to predict a breakout game.
Courtland Sutton is the name to look to. He has 14.9 Yards per Reception and would be the deep ball threat. The Raiders, for that matter, are bottom ten in coverage versus wide receivers.
Best MVP/Captain Picks
- JK Dobbins $15,900
- Courtland Sutton $14,700
Quarterback: Bo Nix or Geno Smith?
If we play quarterback in our lineup, it must be a safe play of confident output. We first look at Nix.
The Broncos could get up in this game and force the run in the second half, especially to preserve energy on a short week. That being said, the Raiders are very bad in coverage. Nix should be able to do as he pleases.
When a defense plays a high rate of zone coverage, they tend to allow less yards, but more touchdowns. The Raiders fail to do that with 224 Passing Yards per Game (21st in NFL) and the 30th worst 3rd down stop percentage in the NFL. They are a bad unit, plain and simple.
Geno Smith will be forced to pass more than usual given the expected game script. He also benefits with Surtain out. The Broncos play a high rate of man coverage. It may not matter. Tre Tucker and Brock Bowers fare just fine against the man look.
Smith has moderate upside, but will face a tough 3rd down defense where the Broncos are 1st in the NFL. This could limit any touchdowns by the Raiders.
Play Bo Nix ($13,800) if any quarterback
Best Running Back Picks
If you do not play Dobbins in your MVP slot, do play in your lineup. He has tremendous upside in tis matchup.
RJ Harvey has broken out with four touchdowns over his past two games. He does, however, lack volume in the run game. We will look to his involvement in the pass game. The Broncos matchup great in this aspect so they could play rather simply to Sutton and Franklin. Nonetheless, Harvey is an elite playmaker and his recent success could elevate his snap-share, especially on a short week.
Per the great @AdamAizer, RJ Harvey had a 52% route rate on first and second downs in Week 9.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 5, 2025
First game with a rate above 40%. pic.twitter.com/RqWHbYRIzz
Harvey is a touchdown reliant play for maximum upside. Despite his successes, he still has has a 1-in-5 shot to score.
The Raiders trot our Ashton Jeanty and he has another tough matchup. The Broncos are 8th in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game (93.1). The Raiders are 29th in Rushing Yards per Game (89.1). Given their scoring projection, the Raiders would be lucky to score more than one touchdown. Jeanty has six touchdowns on the season. His upside is limited in this matchup.
JK Dobbins ($10,600) is the only good upside Running Back.
Best Wide Receiver Picks
As we have stated, the Broncos are much more reliable than the Raiders today. We look to Sutton and Franklin.
Sutton has big play upside as he has also 29% of team receiving yards on the season. His explosive play upside is tremendous and could slot him in one of his better games of the season.
Franklin has twice as many Red Zone Targets than any other player, including Sutton (12-of-40). For that reason, he maintains to have a high probability of scoring — likely around 30-35%.
Troy Franklin (64) has more targets than Courtland Sutton (62) this season pic.twitter.com/XQuuT8NQPs
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 3, 2025
If we go to any Raiders, we first look to Tre Tucker. He commands a 19% Target Share but 26% of Team Receiving Yards. Despite being a smaller, shifty player, he does have 13.3 Yards per Reception.
The Raiders spread the ball around a lot, so Tucker has very limited touchdown upside. If any Raiders catches a touchdown, it is very likely to be Bowers.
Tyler Lockett returns to play for Pete Carroll. He is familiar, but he is also aging. Lockett is not as good as he used to be. We can expect a 15-20% target share quickly here, but upside remains very limited.
Best Wide Receiver Picks
- Courtland Sutton $9,800
- Tre Tucker $8,200
- Troy Franklin $7,800
- Tyler Lockett $4,200 - Better value than upside
Best Tight Ends Picks
Bowers is the obvious name to play. It is a matter of this matchup being good, or bad.
Brock Bowers in his return:
— RotoBot AI (@rotobot_ai) November 6, 2025
• 13 targets (33.3% target share)
• 12 receptions
• 127 receiving yards
• 3 touchdowns
Bowers’s 43.3 PPR points in Week 9 were the most by any player this season
pic.twitter.com/Ad39FmIoTt
The Broncos are 9th in Fantasy Points Allowed to Tight Ends. I would consider that a moderate matchup for a guy like Bowers. Las Vegas will go pass heavy and Bowers will be their target. He is the only Raiders with good upside. He also may be owned at a high rate, so consider that. I will play him if I have the money leftover. He is not going to be a priority.
With Bowers back, Michael Mayer becomes a risky option. He could see a couple targets and you hope that he catches them both. This adds volatility not worth playing.
Evan Engram commands about a 13% Target Share. However, he has an Average Depth of Reception of 8.9 Yards. Engram is only seen about 10% of the time in the Red Zone. The Raiders happen to be the 5th best unit versus Tight Ends.
You can play Brock Bowers ($12,000) at Tight End, no one else.
Best Sleeper Picks
Given that both teams run a spread out offensive style, many sleeper are viable.
Pat Bryant ($3,800)
The loss of Marvin Mims Jr. (Concussion) really helps Bryant rise. He has seven targets over his last two games and a touchdown. Bryant played 57% of snap in Week 9. The next receiver (Trent Sherfield Jr.) played 13%. It is a three-man core and Bryant could very well provide on a big play or two.
Tyler Badie ($2,000)
He is a bit riskier, especially with the emergence of Harvey. However, Badie is consistently a gadget options, snapping 15-30% of plays every week. He is averaging 2.0 Targets per Game. Catch both, or see a third and he could hit 2x.
Tyler Lockett ($4,200)
Locket will play his second game here with the Raiders. Remember, he played years under Pete Carroll and was added for his familiarity. Added, the Raiders just sent Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars. Lockett finds himself as the WR2 in this offense. As the Raiders could be chasing, Lockett may have a 6-8 Target upside.
Kickers
Will Lutz is 13/15 on the season. We do have the added help of elevation. The weather is relatively clear with moderate winds.
Daniel Carlson is 12/15 this year, but with all three misses being beyond 50 yards. We could have some concern that the Raiders go for it on 4th down if they are indeed trailing in this game.
Defense/Special Teams
The Broncos are viable today in our showdown lineup. They lead the NFL in Sacks per Game (4.4). The Raiders are 21st in Sacks Allowed. They are just 29th in Takeaways per Game, but the pressure could be enough to hit 1.5-2x salary.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.