Fantasy Baseball: Breakout Player of the Year and Sleeper First Basemen
Many fantasy teams look for foundation impact power at the first base position. The change in the player pool in 2025 suggests a downgrade in premium home run hitters. Here's a look at my top choices for the breakout, sleeper, and deep player categories in 2025:
Deep Sleeper: Tyler Black, Milwaukee Brewers
Heading to the high-stakes drafts in Las Vegas, I'm on an island with my outlook on Black. Milwaukee lists Rhys Hoskins at first base while having four viable options in the outfield, inviting one to see time at DH. The Brewers gave Black's potential at-bats in 2024 to the swing-and-miss bat of Jake Bauers. Over the past two seasons at AAA, he hit .272 over 534 at-bats with 96 runs, 19 home runs, 92 RBIs, and 28 steals. He took 87 walks with a favorable strikeout rate (17.5).
Black has also seen time at time at third base in the minors. I expect the Brewers to give Sal Frelick some time in the infield (2B or 3B), opening up more playing for their future star. His speed will be an excellent edge for a corner infield bat. I expect him to be a winning out for fantasy teams with weakness on draft day at 1B, CO, or DH. I hope Black has a quiet spring to keep my other fellow drafters off his scent.
Deep Sleeper: Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels
I was a fan of Schanuel in his rookie season, but the weakness in the Angels' starting lineup and a slow-developing bat led to him delivering below-replacement-value stats. With a year's worth of experience under his bat, I expect Schanuel to be a viable fantasy DH option with corner upside if his power comes quicker than expected. He also offers a speed edge for a first baseman.
Sleeper: Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
Pasquantino falls into the sleeper/value category at first base. Most drafters see a steady bat with a 20/80 profile and a potential neutral batting average. Hitting behind Bobby Witt Jr. is a big win for him in RBI chances, and the Royals will score more runs if both players hit well. The sleeper side comes for a much higher ceiling power, requiring a jump in his HR/FB rate, which was more prevalent in the minors. In addition, Pasquantino has an excellent approach.
Value: Pete Alonso, New York Mets
As a late third/early fourth-round draft selection in 15-team formats, Alonso projects as an excellent value at first base. I love his opportunity to hit behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, creating massive RBI chances. Last year, he pressed with runners on base, leading to a sharp decline in his RBI rate (13 - 18% in 2022 and 17% in 2023). Alonso averaged 39 home runs over the past four seasons with two elite years in RBIs (131 and 118).
I expect Alonso to lead the first base position in home runs in 2025, and he is mispriced in drafts. In 2022, he was the sixth-best fantasy batter. I will fight for him in drafts, as the wise guys will know the value of his power bat.
Breakout Hitter of the Year: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cincinnati Reds
For the drafters reading the tea leaves in spring training, they should know the playing time opportunity for Encarnacion-Strand is on the rise. Spencer Steer may start the year on the injured list with a bum right shoulder that was an issue late in 2024. Over his first 17 at-bats this spring, he has four hits with three runs, two home runs, and three RBIs. His spring training stats will drive his fantasy value in March, and any coach-speak out of Reds' camp will create more interest in his bat.
CES has massive power upside, and his bat screams cleanup hitter for the Reds. Other than last year, he had a significant edge in contact batting average with stellar stats over his half-season at AAA (.331/65/20/62/2 over 278 at-bats). Strikeouts will sometimes be an issue, but Encarnacion-Strand will have some massive hot streaks. My breakout player of the year tag is tied to his favorable price point in drafts and ceiling in power production.
Recommended Articles
2025 Fantasy Baseball: Breakout, Sleeper, and Deep Sleeper Catchers
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.