Buffalo Bills 2026 Fantasy Breakdown: Winners, Losers, Sleepers and Bust Candidates

The Buffalo Bills have double-digit wins in seven consecutive seasons (72-30) under the direction of Sean McDermott, but they failed to make a Super Bowl appearance (8-7 in the postseason). Buffalo finished fourth in scoring (481 points) and third in offensive yards (6,695). Their five-year hold on the AFC East Championship ended with the New England Patriots (14-3) regaining their elite team status. Buffalo’s defense allowed 365 points (11th) while giving up the seventh-lowest total in combined yards (5,209). The Bills’ defense was on the field for the fewest number of plays (950) and the lowest time of possession (7:36:35).

Despite their great career record (98-50), Buffalo fired McDermott after the season. Joe Brady was promoted from offensive coordinator to head coach. He’s been the Bills’ coaching system since 2022, with three different jobs (quarterbacks coach, Interim Offensive coordinator, and offensive coordinator). His best coaching success came in 2019 at LSU (National Champions), with Joe Burrow behind center. He was in charge of their passing game and wide receivers. Brady underperformed expectations as the Carolina Panthers’ offensive coordinator in 2020 and 2021.

Pete Carmichael takes over the offensive coordinator job. He’s been coaching in the NFL since 2000, with 15 years of experience at the position with the Saints. His offense won the Super Bowl in 2010. Jim Leonhard will handle the defensive duties. Over the past two seasons, he worked for the Denver Broncos as a defensive backs coach, pass game coordinator, and assistant head coach.

Offense

Buffalo Bills Offensive Run/Pass Splits — Shawn Childs

Last season, Buffalo ran the ball 52.5% of the time (547/2,714) with a league high 30 rushing touchdowns. Their offensive line allowed only 40 sacks (14 in 2024). The Bills ranked 17th in completions (344), 25th in pass attempts (495), 13th in passing yards (3,981), and ninth in passing touchdowns (29).

Quarterback

Fantasy Football Superstar Josh Allen — Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) rolls out during the second quarter of an AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Over the past three seasons, Allen has been an edge player scoring touchdowns in the run game (111/524/15, 102/531/12, and 112/579/14). He comes off a career high in yards per pass attempt (8.0) despite having below-par production from his wide receivers (180/2,107/11 on 270 targets). A shorter passing window was a factor (40 sacks – 14 in 2024), but the real story was underperformance at wideout behind Khalil Shakir (72/719/4 on 95 targets).

Keon Coleman (38/404/4 on 59 targets) was a bust, partly due to being featured closer to the line of scrimmage (10.4 YPC) than his rookie season (19.2 yards per catch). Josh Palmer (22/303/0 on 37 targets) was a poor investment, along with Elijah Moore (9/112/0 on 17 targets).

The Bills relied more on their tight ends (97/1,210/12 on 121 targets) last season while being a run-first offense.

Over the past six seasons, Allen has been a top-tier NFL and fantasy quarterback, highlighted by his ability to deliver combined touchdowns (45, 42, 42, 43, 40, and 39). He comes off a career low in passing yards (3,668) and pass attempts (460 – 646 in 2021) while seeing his passing touchdowns regress for five consecutive seasons (37, 36, 35, 29, 28, and 25). Allen finished last season with his highest completion rate (69.3%).

Buffalo made a wide receiver splash by acquiring DJ Moore in early March, giving Allen a player who can work the short areas of the field and test a defense over the long field. Their front office decided to bring back Keon Coleman while drafting Skylar Ball in the fourth round.

Fantasy Outlook: Allen was the top fantasy quarterback (414.30) again last season in four-point passing touchdowns leagues despite scoring fewer fantasy points than in 2024 (424.35) and 2023 (457.70). Buffalo wants to run the ball, and their star quarterback will continue to snipe touchdowns on the ground in the red zone. Dalton Kincaid showed growth last season when on the field and healthy, making him a key part of Allen’s passing success in 2026, along with a rebound year out of DJ Moore.

With 4,500 combined yards and 40 touchdowns, the Bills' signal caller will be the first quarterback drafted in most fantasy leagues this summer. Allen had three impact games (42.70, 47.85, and 40.35 fantasy points) last season at home while scoring at least 25.00 fantasy points in 10 of his 18 starts. He scored 27 of his 45 touchdowns (including the playoffs) at home, with only four interceptions.

Other Options: Kyle Allen, Shane Buechele

Running Backs

Last season, the Bills’ running backs ranked fifth in the NFL in fantasy points (479.30) in PPR formats. They gained 2,793 combined yards with 22 touchdowns and 68 catches on 494 touches. Their backs come off a three-year high in yards per rush (5.0). Buffalo has used their running backs about the same in the passing game over the past three years (68/664/8, 67/731/8, and 71/645/5). I don’t expect much to change in their running back usage in 2026.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

The Bills gave Cook a workhorse opportunity last season (342 touches – 265 in 2024 and 281 in 2023). He responded by upping his yards per rush (5.2 – career high), highlighted by gaining 20 yards or more on 13 plays, with five reaching the 40-yard mark. Cook ended the year ranked sixth in fantasy points (305.20) in PPR formats, while coming into the season as about the 14th running back drafted. Over his previous two years, he finished 11th (235.50 – 2023) and 8th (266.70 – 2024) in fantasy scoring.

Cook began last year with four consecutive games with touchdowns (5), with the latter three resulting in over 100 yards rushing (21/132/2, 19/108/1, and 22/117/1). After two dull games (15/49 and 17/87) with no catches, he posted a career-high in rushing yards (216) against the Panthers with two touchdowns. He gained over 100 combined yards in seven of his final nine starts (only two snaps in Week 18), giving him a high consistency rating, but scored five of seven touchdowns over this span in two late road games (@NE and @CLE). Cook ended his season with 141 combined yards and two catches on 26 touches in his playoff loss to the Broncos.

Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season, Cook draws the fifth ranking at the running back position in the high-stakes market (PPR). He projects to be a back-end first-round fantasy selection in 2026. When at his best last season, Cook scored over 20.00 fantasy points in nine of his 18 full games, with two impact showings (33.60 and 31.10).

Buffalo had him on the field for 57.1% of their snaps, up from 46.7% in 2024. There’s something to be said for rostering a lead running back for a high-scoring team. His catch rate (82.6%) and yards per catch (9.1) over the past three seasons suggest that the Bills should get him more involved in the passing game, but that may require Buffalo chasing in more games on the scoreboard.

Cook is a special player with big play and scoring ability who is coming off three consecutive career seasons. With 1,500 combined yards, 12 touchdowns, and 30 catches, he could only be a backend top 12 running back, suggesting that Buffalo must continue to give him 300+ touches to earn his higher price point in 2026.

Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills running back Ray Davis (22) returns a kickoff return during the second quarter in an NFL football AFC Wild Card playoff matchup, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. Bills lead 10-7 at the half over the Jaguars. | Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In his second season with the Bills, Davis slipped to third fiddle in their running back rotation, highlighted by his low snap count (215 plays – 16.9%) and step back in production (58/275/0 with 10 catches for 86 yards and two scores on 13 targets). Buffalo gave him the keys to the running back opportunity in Week 18, leading to an impact game (174 combined yards with a touchdown and two catches on 29 touches).

Davis was active in the Bills’ offense in six games (18.20, 11.70, 13.70, 10.90, and 14.50 fantasy points) in 2024 while being a non-factor in 12 matchups (fewer than 4.00 fantasy points in each contest). He brought scoring value at the goal line (3 TDs), and Buffalo will give him some pass-catching chances (17/189/2).

Fantasy Outlook: This season, Davis must jump ahead of Ty Johnson in the Bills’ running back rotation to help fantasy teams as a handcuff option to James Cook.

Ty Johnson, Buffalo Bills

Buffalo used Johnson as a scheme player in some matchups in 2024, leading to some big plays and touchdowns. He beat the Lions with five catches for 114 yards in Week 5 while also surprising in two other matchups (46 combined yards with a touchdown and three catches and 70 combined yards with a score and two catches). In his other 17 games, Johnson had 283 yards with two touchdowns and 12 catches.

Last year, the Bills gave him a slight bump in touches (74), leading to a career high in touchdowns (5), plus impressive success in his yards per rush (5.2) and yards per catch (15.8). He gained 20 yards or more on five of his 18 catches. Buffalo had him on the field for 29.6% of their games over 17 matchups. Over his final eight games, Johnson gained 227 combined yards with four scores and 18 catches. His best fantasy value also came in Week 18 (13/36/1 with two catches for 20 yards and one touchdown).

Fantasy Outlook: Johnson’s ability to catch the ball in space gives him an advantage on passing downs in chaser games. If James Cook had an injury, Buffalo would most likely feature him as a rotational player in their run game. He’ll be found in the free agent pool in most fantasy leagues.

Other Options: Frank Gore

Wide Receivers

For Josh Allen to reach his lost ceiling in passing touchdowns, his wide receiver must be more productive. They set three-year lows in all categories last year, leaving them 36 catches for 669 yards and eight touchdowns on 59 targets from their peak success in 2023, when Stefon Diggs (107/1,183/8 on 160 targets) represented a WR1 presence in this offense.

DJ Moore, Buffalo Bills

After an explosive season in 2023 (96/1,385/9 on 136 targets), Moore faded down the wide receivers rankings over the past two years with Caleb Williams behind center for the Bears. He comes off his worst year in catches (50) and receiving yards (682) in his eighth season in the NFL. Moore scored seven times, but Chicago only looked his way 85 times. They did give him repeated chances in the run game (15/79/1). The Bears had him on the field for 1,104 plays (83.9%).

Over the first 10 games in 2025, Moore averaged only 9.49 fantasy points per game in PPR formats, with his only winning day coming in Week 9 (4/89/1) on the road against the Bengals. He was fantasy-relevant in five (5/64/2, 4/69/2, 5/97/1, 6/59/1, and 5/60/1) of his final nine matchups, but poor showings (2/27, 1/-4, 1/7, and 1/11) made him a challenging player to manage and trust. Moore only had one game (Week 20 – eight targets) with over seven targets.

Fantasy Outlook: When at his best, Moore has the tools to move the chains or challenge a defense in the deep passing game. He’s gained over 1,000 yards in four seasons while developing into a better scoring player over the past four years (7, 9, 6, and 7 touchdowns). I expect him to be an excellent fit for the Bills’ offense.

His early ADP (54) in the high-stakes market paints Moore as borderline WR2/WR3 in PPR formats. I see 80+ catches with over 1,000 receiving yards and about seven scores, which should make him a slight fantasy value based on his early price point.

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10) before an AFC Wild Card Round game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

In his third season with the Bills, Shakir emerged as their top receiving option (76/821/4 on 100 targets). Despite his success, he finished 37th in wide receiver scoring (182.50) in PPR formats. His top games (9/107 and 5/106/1) lacked explosiveness, but Shakir scored over 10.00 fantasy points in 14 of his 18 starts, giving him a consistency factor as a flex option in leagues with three wide slots in their starting lineup.

Last year, Shakir scored fewer fantasy points (167.70), but he moved up one notch to WR36. Over his 18 games (including the postseason), he caught 91 passes for 876 yards and four touchdowns on 116 targets. His catch rate (78.4%) was a plus, but Buffalo gave him most of his chances close to the line of scrimmage (9.6 yards per catch). Shakir gained 40 yards or more on three plays in the regular season, with two of those being catches that ended with long scores via short receptions.

His best two games (6/88/1 and 12/82) led to 20+ fantasy points in PPR formats. Shakir scored more than 10.00 fantasy points in eight other matchups. His opportunity increased when Dalton Kincaid was injured. Despite the appearance of growth, Buffalo only had him on the field for 57.3% of their plays. He had seven or more targets in half of his games.

In 2025, Buffalo gave Shakir a four-year extension for $60.2 million in February, showing their confidence in him.

Fantasy Outlook: Despite his success over the past two seasons, Shakir draws a WR4/WR5 tag this year in early drafts in the high-stakes market. He brings a grinder/fill-in feel to a fantasy team due to low scoring and potential lower opportunity in 2026. Injuries helped his stats last year, but Shakir is only a 70/700/5 player if he continues to see WR2 targets in the Bills’ offense.

Skyler Bell, Buffalo Bills

After a rather pedestrian first three years at Wisconsin (69/915/6) over 26 games, Bell found his stride in his two seasons at Connecticut. He worked as a big plays wideout in 2024 (50/860/5 – 17.2 yards per catch), followed by an explosive year (101 catches for 1,278 yards and 13 touchdowns). He gained over 100 yards in seven matchups in 2025 (4/135/2, 11/107, 14/113/1, 10/125/1, 8/158/1, 8/149/3, and 8/125), with three other games with at least seven catches (7/92, 11/87/2, and 8/70).

Speed at the wide receiver position continued to be the theme in 2026. Bell ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. His release needs work; Bell’s hands could be suspect in tight battles over the middle of the field. He has the tools to pile up catches close to the line of scrimmage, while also threatening them over the long field with or without the ball.

Fantasy Outlook: Bell upgrades the Bills’ wide receiver speed, with a high enough college resume to compete for chain-moving catches. His new kid on the block feel should rank him ahead of Keon Coleman heading to training camp. Interesting player to follow this summer, with a deep flier price tag.

Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills

Coleman had the look of a much better player in his rookie season, but his results on the field suggest pumping the brakes on his 2025 outlook. He missed four midseason games with a wrist injury. His catch rate (50.9) was extremely low, but the Bills used him as a deep threat (19.2 yards per catch, 12 catches of 20 yards or more, and four long bombs).

He finished one catch or fewer in nine of his 16 games, showcasing his downside risk. His two tease showings (4/125 and 5/70/1) came in back-to-back starts before his injury.

Last year, the summer reports seemed positive about the direction of Coleman, and an expected WR2 role suggested a potential significant step forward in stats. Unfortunately, his only starting flicker came in Week 1 (8/112/1 on 11 targets). Coleman scored over 10.00 fantasy points only twice (4/23/1 and 3/46/1) over his next eight matchups (24/218/2 on 38 targets), followed by four missed games over the next nine weeks and emptiness when on the field (2/9/1, 2/16, 0/0, 2/49, 1/36, and 1/10/1). He finished the year with WR2 snaps (638 – only 50.1%) while gaining only 10.6 yards per catch.

In the offseason, I thought the Bills were going to move on from Coleman, but he remains on the roster.

Fantasy Outlook: The addition of DJ Moore pushed him down a notch, and incoming rookie, Skyler Bell, looks poised to get in Coleman’s way in 2026. I don’t see him getting drafted in 12-team formats this year.

Other Options: Tyrell Shavers, Joshua Palmer, Mecole Hardman

Tight Ends

For the second time in three seasons, the Bills’ tight ends caught 97 balls, but their targets have fallen in a tight range over the past three years (129, 118, and 121). They finished with a jump in receiving yards (1,210) and touchdowns (12) in 2025, highlighted by gaining 12.5 yards per catch and accounting for 30% of Buffalo’s receiving yards.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

2026 Fantasy Football Sleeper: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bill — Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) during AFC practice at the NFL Flag Fieldhouse at Moscone Center South Building. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Kincaid missed one of his possible 19 starts in his rookie season, leading to 81 catches for 777 yards and three touchdowns on 102 targets. He had a productive six-game stretch (8/75, 5/65/1, 10/81, 5/51/1, 6/46, and 5/38) midseason, followed by three dull showings (5/21, 0/0, and 1/7). Buffalo got him more involved over his final four starts (4/87, 7/84, 3/59/1, and 5/45). His catch rate (80.2%) graded well, despite having five drops. Kincaid gained only 9.2 yards per catch.

Kincaid (44/448/2 on 75 targets) went down as a fantasy bust in 2024. He finished 30th in tight end scoring (100.80) in PPR formats while sitting out four games (knee and collarbone issues). Over the first 10 weeks, Kincaid posted three double-digit games (13.10, 11.10, and 13.10) in fantasy points while being unplayable after Week 10.

In 2025, Josh Allen appeared to be in rhythm with Kincaid over the first five weeks (4/48/1, 4/37, 5/66/1, 1/28/1, and 6/108), despite only seeing 24 targets. Injuries knocked him out of five games while seeing only rotational snaps in eight other matchups. He flashed in Week 9 (6/101/1) while scoring in three other contests (4/41/1, 3/28/1, and 6/83/1). Kincaid never had more than six targets in a game. He caught 80.0% of his 60 targets over 14 weeks (including the playoffs). Buffalo only had him on the field for 28.9% of their plays (59.9% in his rookie season).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his injuries over the past two seasons, many fantasy game managers will fade Kincaid. He sits 12th in the early tight end rankings in the high-stakes market, making him an upside TE2 in some team structures. His stats last year, projected over a full season, paint a winning picture. When on the field, he should be the number two receiving option behind DJ Moore.

When adding his increase in scoring (seven TDs) and bigger plays (14.6 yards per catch), Kincaid brings a sleeper feel to the tight end position this draft season. Possible 80 catches for 1,000 yards and 10 scores if only the field for 17 games and receiving 65% of the Bills’ snaps.

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

In 2023, Knox barely had a role over his first seven games (15/102/1 over 28 targets), followed by five missed weeks due to a wrist injury that required surgery. Josh Allen only looked his way 11 times over his final seven games (9/97/2).

Even with Dalton Kincaid missing some time and underperforming expectations in 2024, Knox had a career low in targets (33). He finished with 22 catches for 311 yards and one score while working more downfield (14.1 yards per catch – seven catches of 20 yards or more).

Knox finished last season with a three-year high in catches (36), receiving yards (417), touchdowns (4), and targets (49), thanks to another banged-up season by Dalton Kincaid. He only had two games (6/93 and 5/30) with more than three catches while playing his best in Week 15 (3/37/2).

Fantasy Outlook: Knox remains only a handcuff to Dalton Kincaid with a chance to average between two and three targets per game. He’ll get some scores in close on play-action passes, with an opportunity to surprise in a game or two. Knox should be found in the free-agent pool in all 12-team leagues.

Other Options: Jackson Hawes, Keleki Latu

Kicker

Tyler Bass, Buffalo

Over his five seasons with the Bills, Bass made 131 of his 155 field goals (84.4%) while delivering on 264 of his 274 extra-point tries. He’s made 16 of his 23 kicks from 50 yards or more. A pelvic injury in 2025 led to Bass missing the whole season. Last year, Buffalo scored 62 touchdowns (2nd) but created only 21 field goal attempts.

Fantasy Outlook: Bass finished 4th (165.90), 13th (148.30), 7th (156.70), 18th (140.30), and 10th (154.20) in fantasy points in his career. Other than the potential for bad-weather games late in the year, Bass remains a top-12 fantasy kicking option. Buffalo’s increased success in close scoring touchdowns has hurt the team’s field goal chances over the past three years.

Defense

The Bills fall to 28th in defending the run (2,315 yards), with offenses averaging 26.5 carries. They gave up 5.1 yards per rush, with 24 rushing touchdowns (13 in 2024 and 14 in 2023). Ball carriers had 13 runs of 20 yards or more. Buffalo vaulted to first in pass defense (2,894 yards) with 19 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and 36 sacks.

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