Fantasy Football ADP Risers & Fallers: Receivers Free-Falling Like Tom Petty
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Fantasy football managers never sleep, and neither does the draft market. With NFL training camps opening later this month and best ball tournaments filling around the clock, average draft position is shifting daily as drafters react to injury updates, coaching comments and depth chart rumors.
Some of those moves are earned because of injury updates or how a team's depth chart settles. However, some of these changes might look silly by September. We can only react to the information we have at hand
Below are three players climbing and four players falling on draft boards faster than anyone else right now, along with the reasons behind each surge and whether the new price still makes sense.
Fantasy Football ADP risers
Adonai Mitchell, WR, New York Jets
No player has jumped more on Underdog over the past month than Adonai Mitchell, who has climbed roughly three rounds from pick 18.02 to 15.05 while also gaining 30 spots on DraftKings since May.
The former Texas standout arrived in New York as part of the midseason Sauce Gardner trade and caught 24 passes for 301 yards and two touchdowns over eight games, including a 102-yard breakout against Atlanta.
Head coach Aaron Glenn has fueled the buzz, saying, "We want to squeeze every ounce of his athleticism."
Here's the catch. Most of that production came with Garrett Wilson sidelined, and the Jets spent first-round picks on Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq. Mitchell remains a worthwhile dart in the 15th round, but volume is far from guaranteed.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Johnston was the biggest draft capital riser in all of fantasy football as of July 8, gaining more than 36 spots on DraftKings since May and settling in around WR37.
The reason is Mike McDaniel. The new Chargers offensive coordinator built his reputation on manufacturing yards after the catch, and Johnston averaged 8.3 YAC per reception in college before NFL play callers turned him into a downfield specialist.
McDaniel compared his traits to Julio Jones and Andre Johnson, while Johnston said the scheme change "lit me up a little bit."
The 6-foot-4 wideout has scored eight touchdowns in consecutive seasons and posted 735 yards last year. The climb is defensible, though at his rising cost he now needs weekly consistency he has never shown.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
Brooks is the biggest running back riser of the entire best-ball season, up nearly 43 spots on Underdog to RB36 and another 35 on DraftKings.
The 2024 second-round pick has played three career NFL games thanks to two ACL tears in the same right knee, but the news finally flipped this spring. "I've been cleared by my surgeon," Brooks said in late April, adding that he feels "close to 100%."
Carolina let leading rusher Rico Dowdle walk in free agency and replaced him with only AJ Dillon and special-teamer Trevor Etienne, leaving a real path to work behind Chuba Hubbard.
The talent that made Brooks the 46th overall pick is worth chasing at this price, though a third-round best-ball cost is approaching his ceiling until he proves the knee holds up in camp.
Fantasy Football ADP fallers
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
No player has lost more draft capital this summer than Aiyuk, who has plummeted 54 spots on DraftKings since May and fell another 14 last week alone.
Every layer of this situation got worse in July. The 28-year-old is still on the 49ers' reserve/left squad list, still recovering from the 2024 tear of his ACL, MCL and meniscus, and still refusing to file for reinstatement.
Then he torched his most likely landing spot, posting Instagram attacks on Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels, his old Arizona State teammate. "I gotta get paid somehow," Aiyuk said of the videos.
The 1,342-yard receiver from 2023 is buried somewhere in there, but drafters are right to run. There is a genuine chance he never suits up in 2026.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Nabers has slipped from the third round toward the fourth, and the arrow still points down.
ESPN's Jordan Raanan reported the Giants star could miss the first four or five games after a second procedure removed scar tissue from the knee that sidelined him for most of 2025.
The original injury was no small thing either, a torn ACL and lateral meniscus damage suffered in Week 4. Nabers is expected to open camp on the physically unable to perform list when veterans report July 28.
General manager Joe Schoen insists, "I still think he'll be fine Week 1." Everyone would also agree the talent mitigates some, but not all of the risk. Nabers piled up 127 catches for 1,475 yards in just 19 career games. Unlike Aiyuk, this is a faller worth buying once the price bottoms out in August.
Tyreek Hill, WR, free agent
Hill has shed more than 43 spots on DraftKings, and honestly, the market may still be too optimistic.
The 32-year-old remains unsigned five months after Miami released him, with a $51 million cap hit, and the reason is medical. His Week 4 injury involved a dislocated knee, a torn ACL and additional ligament damage, and it required a second surgery.
Agent Drew Rosenhaus recently admitted, "There really isn't a set timetable on when he's going to be ready to go."
Hill was on pace for another 1,100-yard season before the injury, and his 11,363 career receiving yards speak for themselves. But a speed receiver with no team, no clearance and no timeline is nearly undraftable outside the final rounds.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Conner's fall is less dramatic than that of his listed peers, but perhaps more final. He dropped 10 spots to 177th on FantasyPros' board earlier this month and sits at pick 250 on DraftKings, down 13 in the past week.
The two-time Pro Bowler produced 1,508 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns as recently as 2024, but he turns 31 in May terms of football age, played just three games last season before foot surgery and accepted a restructured deal with only $2.1 million guaranteed.
Arizona then buried him on the depth chart. The Cardinals signed Tyler Allgeier, kept Trey Benson and spent the third overall pick on Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love.
Four backs cannot eat in a good offense, let alone in one projected to struggle like Arizona's. This makes Conner something like a name-recognition trap at any price above the last two rounds.
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Matt De Lima has been covering fantasy sports for more than 15 years, contributing to top outlets such as Sports Illustrated, DraftKings, GiveMeSport and The Game Day. Known for his straightforward, actionable analysis, Matt specializes in start/sit calls, waiver wire pickups, IDP, and season-long strategies. His work has reached millions of readers and listeners through articles, podcasts, SiriusXM radio appearances and social media. Respected across the fantasy sports community, Matt combines deep football knowledge with a sharp editorial eye, delivering insights that help players win their leagues.
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