NFL Week 7 Survivor Pool Strategy: Chiefs, Bears and 3 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate mix of playing it safe while planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can set the tone for the entire season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 7:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Kansas City Chiefs Over Las Vegas Raiders (Pick %: 44% Spread: -12.5)
The Chiefs are the biggest favorites in Week 7, and justifiably so. They’re much better than their 3-3 record indicates. Kansas City has scored 28+ points in each of its last three contests, and it returns Rashee Rice this week. The Chiefs’ defense is also playing well, as they held the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense entering Week 6 — the Detroit Lions — to just 17 points in their last outing. The Raiders have the fourth-worst turnover margin and are tied for the third-lowest scoring team in the NFL. There’s often a risk when picking a team in survivor that’s playing against a divisional opponent, but the Chiefs shouldn’t have much trouble in this contest at home.
New England Patriots Over Tennessee Titans (Pick %: 23% Spread: -7)
The Titans are 4-19 since the start of the 2024 season, and are playing their first game since firing head coach Brian Callahan. According to ESPN, teams are 13-12 outright after replacing their coach midseason despite being underdogs in 19 of those 25 games since 2015. However, the Titans enter this game as one of, if not the worst, teams in the NFL, while the Patriots are one of, if not the hottest, teams in the league. The Patriots are favored by the most points on the road this week in the last four years. However, New England looks like a prime team to save for later this season. It had two games left against the New York Jets, and games against the Browns, Bengals, Dolphins and Giants.
Under The Radar Picks
Chicago Bears Over New Orleans Saints (Pick %: 16% Spread: -4.5)
The Bears have hit their stride, winning their last three contests. Their defense is playing much better as of late, and their run game finally got going on Monday night vs. the Commanders. Chicago has a top-10 scoring offense on a per-game basis, while New Orleans is the fourth-worst. The Bears make for a very solid under-the-radar pick in Week 7. Outside of their Week 10 and 15 games against the Giants and Browns at home, respectively, there’s a chance they won’t be overwhelming favorites again this season.
Carolina Panthers Over New York Jets (Pick %: 2% Spread: -1.5)
The Panthers have won three of their last four games and have scored 27 or more points in all three wins. On the other hand, the Jets are 0-6, and Justin Fields is 0-27 as a starter when his opponent scores 21+ points. Fields will also be without his top target this week in Garrett Wilson, who’s expected to miss a couple of weeks with a hyperextended knee. The Panthers’ rushing attack, which has been unstoppable the last two weeks, led by Rico Dowdle, matches up against the fifth-worst rushing defense in terms of yards allowed per game.
One Risky Pick
Green Bay Packers Over Arizona Cardinals (Pick %: 3% Spread: -6.5)
Chances are, survivor players have already used the Packers. If not, it’s likely a better strategy to use them in Week 9 at home vs. the Panthers. However, this game vs. the Cardinals looks to be the perfect trap game for the Packers. Arizona is on a four-game skid, with each loss averaging less than three points. It’s a feisty team that is desperate for a win at home. Kyler Murray is questionable after missing last week’s contest against the Colts. Jacoby Brissett had the Cardinals leading 24-17 after three quarters and finished the game passing for over 300 yards. It’s not crazy to say their offense is better with him under center. The Packers already posted one embarrassing loss to the Browns in Week 3. It wouldn’t surprise me if it happens again this week.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.