Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfielders (Tier 6)
We continue to rank the top outfielders entering the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Let's break down the next tier:
26 – Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (ADP – 129.4)
The Mets drafted Crow-Armstrong with the 19th overall pick selection in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .296 with 215 runs, 41 home runs, 161 RBIs, and 81 steals over 995 at-bats.
Over the past two seasons, Crow-Armstrong gained 250 at-bats of experience at AAA (.264/52/11/36/20). His strikeout rate (28.7) showed weakness at this level of the minors while posting a slightly below-par walk rate (7.6).
He failed to get a hit over 14 at-bats with the Cubs in 2023. An injury to Cody Bellinger led to Crow-Armstrong coming to the majors quicker than expected last season. His bat was overmatched over his first 196 at-bats (.194/14/3/20), but he went 20-for-20 in stolen bases attempts. Over the final two months, he looked more comfortable at the plate (.284 over 176 at-bats with 32 runs, seven home runs, 27 RBIs, and seven stolen bases). He lowered his strikeout rate to 22.3% (23.9 on the year).
His contact batting average (.321) showed more potential in the minors (.405). Crow-Armstrong had a fly-ball swing path (42.5%), with weakness in his HR/FB rate (9.0) compared to his previous results. His exit velocity (88.9) and hard-hit rate (36.8) were below average.
How many bases will Pete Crow-Armstrong steal in 2025? pic.twitter.com/0iSBkyXepf
— The Wrigley Wire (@TheWrigleyWire) February 17, 2025
Fantasy Outlook: The starting centerfield job for Chicago will be in the hands of Crow-Armstrong in 2025. His batting average should have a natural progression upward with more experience. The improvement in his approach with the Cubs was surprising, considering his previous results in the minors. His starting point this year is 15+ home runs and 40+ stolen bases, but Chicago will hit low in their batting order until his bat talks his way to a better position.
27 – Ian Happ, CHC (ADP – 132.1)
Happ comes off a string of three seasons with 1,989 combined plate appearances (663 per year). His growth in playing time led to him ranking 61st (0.82) and 39th (1.97) in FPGscore over the past two years. He set career highs in runs (89) and RBIs (86) in 2024 while becoming a better hitter with runners on base (RBI rate – 17).
His exit velocity (90.8) and hard-hit rate (44.9) was a four-year high. He finished with a career-high fly-ball rate (41.8), with an uptick in his HR/FB rate (14.9) and launch angle (15.1). Happ has a top-of-an-order walk rate (12.2) with regression in his strikeout rate (25.6 – 22.1 in 2023).
Chicago gave him 47.1% of his at-bats in the leadoff spot in 2024 and 27.8% in the five-hole.
Fantasy Outlook: His rising average hit rate (1.819) gives Happ a chance to push his home run output over 30 in 2025. The change in stolen base rules led to more stolen bases (27-for-32) over the past two seasons, adding to his fantasy value. Adding Kyle Tucker will either help his runs or RBIs, depending on where he hits in the batting order. At best, I see a neutral batting average if Happ regains some of his lost approach. When drafting him, a fantasy manager hopes he repeats his overall success over the past two seasons. Think steady and safe rather than high upside with bust potential.
28 – Dylan Crews, WAS (ADP – 139.1)
The Nationals scooped up Crews with the second overall pick in the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft. He had an excellent three-year career at LSU (.380 over 753 at-bats with 237 runs, 58 home runs, 184 RBIs, and 23 stolen bases), highlighted by his 2023 season (.426/100/18/70/6 over 258 at-bats).
Washington pushed him through three levels of the minors over the past two years. He has the equivalent of one season of experience at A, AA, and AAA (.275 over 534 at-bats with 86 runs, 18 home runs, 97 RBIs, and 29 steals). His strikeout rate (21.4) and walk rate (8.2) were about the major league average.
His success in the minors in 2024 led to 31 games with the Nationals late last season. His approach (strikeout rate – 19.7 and walk rate – 8.3) held form, but he had a much weaker contact batting average (.280 – .363 in minors and .471 in college) while pressing with runners on base (RBI rate – 7). Crews is trailing in power based on his average hit rate (1.615).
He had a groundball swing path (57.4%) in the majors, well above his 2023 minor league stats (42.1%). His exit velocity (89.0 mph) ranked lower than his hard-hit rate (44.7).
Fantasy Outlook: Crews looks poised to be a much better player with Washington in 2025. He has the tools to bat second in the batting order with an opportunistic skill set in speed. I sense that he needs two to three months to get comfortable at the major league level. His volume of at-bats should be an asset for his counting stats – .265/75/15/65/20 seems like a reasonable floor for his rookie campaign.
29 – Steven Kwan, CLE (ADP – 139.3)
Kwan was on pace for his best season in fantasy value in 2024, thanks to finding a power stroke (14 home runs), but two stints on the injured list (hamstring and back) led to 23 missed games. He hit an impressive .354 over his first 285 at-bats with 56 runs, nine home runs, 27 RBIs, and six stolen bases. Unfortunately, his swing had a correction over his final 196 at-bats (.200/27/5/17/6). Kwan was on pace for 99 runs, 17 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases.
He came to the plate with only 231 runners on base, creating weakness in his RBI chance. His strikeout rate (9.4) is one of the best in baseball while continuing to have above average results taking walks (9.8%). Kwan ranked 190th out of 207 batters with 400 or more plate appearances in exit velocity (86.3 mph) and 203rd in hard-hit rate (23.7). His rise in power was tied to a career-best fly-ball rate (39.4), HR/FB rate (8.4), and launch angle (14.9).
His average hit rate (1.457) improved for the second season, but it doesn’t support a push higher than 15 home runs. Kwan ranked 78th in FPGscore (-0.21) for hitters, compared to 87th in 2023 (-0.92) with 158 fewer at-bats.
Fun fact: Steven Kwan has won a Gold Glove in every season he’s been a professional.
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 30, 2025
The 2024 All-Star grabs the #8 spot on The Shredder's list of the best left fielders in the game. #Top10RightNow pic.twitter.com/Mc5hIFBa79
Fantasy Outlook: Investing in Kwan gives a drafter two areas of strength (batting average and runs). He grades below average in RBIs with some positive help in stolen bases. Based on his stats last year and quick math adding some more at-bats, fantasy drafters may extrapolate that he is on the path to becoming a .290/100/15/60/20 player. If that is his ceiling, his price point is fair for his results.
On the flip side, a regression to 2022 (6) and 2023 (5) in home runs suggests a much weaker piece to a winning franchise. He’s not my style of player, but the sum of his parts and potential may pay off, especially if Kwan posts a .320+ batting average with over 600 at-bats.
30 – Mike Trout, LAA (ADP – 142.6)
Over the past four seasons, Trout missed 389 games with multiple injuries. He hit .276 with 179 runs, 76 home runs, 156 RBIs, and 11 steals over his last 972 at-bats, translating to 101 runs, 43 home runs, and 88 RBIs with 550 at-bats.
Strikeouts became a problem for him from 2021 to 2023 (28.7%, 27.9%, and 28.1%), but he made strides (21.4%) in this area over his 126 plate appearances last season. Trout’s average hit rate (2.458) was elite over short at-bats (126), but his contact batting average (.293) was out of line for his career path (.397 in 2023 and .415 in 2022) while only driving in four of his possible 75 baserunners. He had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee in early May that reemerged in late July, leading to a second surgery.
In 2022, Trout played well over his first 246 at-bats (.285 with 53 runs, 23 home runs, and 47 RBIs) while missing some time due to an illness plus hand and groin issues. In mid-July, a back/rib injury led to only 22 games played (19-for-83 with nine runs, five home runs, and 11 RBIs) over the next two months. I saw a blurb in late July calling his injury costovertebral dysfunction. When Trout returned in September, he bashed 12 home runs over 109 at-bats with 23 runs and 22 RBIs while hitting .321.
A left-hand injury in July of 2023 led to surgery to repair a hamate bone fracture. The issue lingered for the rest of the year, leading to only one more game played. His RBI rate (12) was a career-low, with weakness in this area in 2021 (13.0). Trout started the year with success in April (.308/20/7/18 over 107 at-bats), but he only hit .239 for the rest of the season (201 at-bats) with 34 runs, 11 home runs, 26 RBIs, and two steals.
His exit velocity (89.2) was well below his career average (91.1) in 2024, along his hard-hit rate (41.5 – over 50.0% over his previous four seasons). Trout hit 56.1% fly balls last season, with strength in his HR/FB rate (21.7%).
"I just want to be on the field... I'm with it."
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 17, 2025
Mike Trout announces he will be moving from center field to right field this season. https://t.co/CxfgKJ8rG2 pic.twitter.com/1rr8W15LAT
Fantasy Outlook: It’s been five seasons since Trout had 600 plate appearances and winning stats. He checks the home run box in a big way while falling into the risk/reward category. At this point, a full-time DH role could revive his career, at least in the health department. A fantasy drafter can’t predict when an injury will happen, so tee him up and hope for at least four healthy months before missing time.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.