2025 Kentucky Derby Morning-Line Betting Favorites: Is There Value?
Welcome to Kentucky Derby week! After Saturday’s much-anticipated post-position draw, we have learned that three horses were installed with single-digit morning-line odds.
While no one is surprised that Journalism was installed as the 3-1 favorite in the 151st Run for the Roses, it was rather interesting to see two closers, who drew far outside posts, listed as the second and third overall betting choices.
Let’s take a look!
Journalism 3-1
POST-POSITION: No. 8
JOCKEY: Umberto Rispoli / TRAINER: Michael McCarthy
RECORD: 5 starts: 4-0-1
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 110
RUNNING STYLE: Stalker
The connections of Journalism were ecstatic to draw one of the best post-positions on Saturday. The Santa Anita Derby winner, who has posted a triple-digit Equibase Speed figure in his four wins (105-106-110-108), will break from the middle of the field. Post No. 8 has produced the second-most Derby winners (9, tied with post No. 10) behind only post No. 5 (10).
Journalism works 5F in 1:01.40 for trainer Michael McCarthy pic.twitter.com/8nzZy6L6q5
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 27, 2025
The morning-line favorite looked superb in his latest workout, covering five furlongs in 1:01.40 at Churchill Downs. If he breaks well and avoids traffic issues, trainer Michael McCarthy stated he has “confidence and faith in the progressing colt’s chances and that the post-draw was just one piece to the Derby puzzle.”
Sovereignty 5-1
POST-POSITION: No. 18
JOCKEY: Junior Alvarado / TRAINER: Bill Mott
RECORD: 5 starts: 2-2-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 99
RUNNING STYLE: Closer
Sovereignty’s showcase of speed and closing power will have to be fully displayed after drawing a far outside post. We know that history is not on the Fountain of Youth Stakes winner’s side as post No. 18 has only produced 2 Kentucky Derby champions in 37 starts (5.4%).
Sovereignty works 5 furlongs in 1:01.80 for trainer Bill Mott pic.twitter.com/rV9vIKPYTO
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 27, 2025
Bill Mott has the son of Into Mischief in peak form following two impressive workouts at Churchill Downs of five-furlongs at 1:01.80 (April 27) and five-furlongs at 1:00.60 (April 19). Jockey Junior, who was aboard Sovereignty for his win in the Street Sense Stakes (G3) victory over the Churchill track, returns from a fractured shoulder. Following the post-position draw, Mott addressed Sovereignty’s outside position:
“I was unshaken (by the draw),” said Mott. “I thought it was fine. I would not have wanted the 1 or the 2 (post), but anything outside that would have been fine.”
Sandman 6-1
POST-POSITION: No. 17
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz / TRAINER: Mark Casse
RECORD: 8 starts: 3-1-2
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104
RUNNING STYLE: Closer
Metallica fans were disappointed to witness the horse named after the 1991 hit song “Enter Sandman” draw “unlucky” post No. 17. Unfortunately, the outside gate is the only post never to produce a Derby winner (0% win rate, 45 starts).
The Arkansas Derby (G1) has displayed improving speed figures in each of his last three races and has continued that progression on the Churchill track with two solid recent works, five furlongs in 1:02.40 (April 23) and four furlongs in 49.60 (April 15).
Sandman sighting 👀 pic.twitter.com/hyffHLVOT1
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 27, 2025
The wide outside draw could benefit Sandman’s deep closing style, but can he make history and break the drought? Trainer Mark Casse shared that despite his son hoping for any post other than the dreaded No. 17, he doesn’t mind it.
“My son sent me last week, ‘as long as we don’t get 17’ because in 150 years nobody has won from post 17, but we are going to change that,” said Casse.
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-1be8bb0e9ea1ab9f8bfbf612aa95e4bb.jpeg "Frank Taddeo")
Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.