ATP Finals Preview: Ranking Each Player’s Chances of Winning

Two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner is out for the season with a knee injury, meaning the Nitto ATP Finals will have a champion other than Sinner for the first time since 2023.

Carlos Alcaraz meets Daniil Medvedev at the net after he wins the ATP final of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, Calif., Sunday, March 17, 2024. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Eight players will compete for the Nitto ATP Finals starting November 15th at the Inalpi Arena in Turin. In the annual year-end tournament, players are split into two groups of four, with the top two in each advancing to the semifinals. Here are all eight qualifiers ranked from most to least likely to win, based on this season’s results.

1. Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz has quietly had a dominant season on the ATP Tour despite missing more than four months with a wrist injury. He’s won five titles in 2026, including the Australian Open, Doha, Tokyo, Vienna, and Paris just last week, and he’s 42-5 even with the long layoff. He’s yet to win the ATP Finals in his career, but reached the final last season, where he lost to Jannik Sinner. 

With Sinner out and Alcaraz in the best form of his season, this is arguably his best chance yet. The main risk is the workload, as he arrives off back-to-back titles in Vienna and Paris, and he’s been vocal about the toll the ATP’s long season can take.

2. Alexander Zverev

Tennis - U.S. Open - Flushing Meadows, New York, United States - September 13, 2026 Germany's Alexander Zverev celebrates with the trophy after winning the men's singles final against Ben Shelton of the U.S. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters/Robert Deutsch | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters

Alexander Zverev is a two-time ATP Finals champion in 2018 and 2021, and enters this year’s event riding the momentum of clinching year-end No. 1. The German is in the midst of the best season of his career, going 65-18 and winning his first two Grand Slams at the French Open and the US Open this year. 

His one weakness is his record against elite opponents, where he went 3-9 against top-10 players this year, the worst ever by a world No. 1 in the Open Era. Against his fellow qualifiers, though, he’s 6-2 this year, so if Zverev can get past Alcaraz, he leads the series against every other player in the field. With plenty of experience winning at this event and a chip on his shoulder after a first-round exit in Paris, Zverev will be motivated to play at his best.

3. Daniil Medvedev

Tennis - U.S. Open - Flushing Meadows, New York, United States - September 4, 2026 Russia's Daniil Medvedev celebrates winning a point during his third round match against France's Arthur Rinderknech IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters/Geoff Burke | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters

Daniil Medvedev has won four titles in 2026, including Brisbane, Dubai, Hangzhou, and Almaty, and returns to the ATP Finals after missing the cut last season. This year, he’s 52-20, and his tour-leading 38 hard-court wins show how well he’s played on the surface. He last won the ATP Finals in 2020 and is making his seventh appearance at the event after a resurgent season.

Medvedev has been competitive against the best this year, beating Alcaraz in the Indian Wells semifinals and taking Sinner to two tiebreaks in the final before losing. However, the biggest question for the veteran is consistency, since he also lost his first match in Paris to Ignacio Buse. With a 2-3 record against top-10 opponents this year, Medvedev will need to be in peak form to triumph over the competition in this year’s field.

4. Ben Shelton

Tennis - U.S. Open - Flushing Meadows, New York, United States - September 13, 2026 Ben Shelton of the U.S. speaks to the crowd after losing the men's singles final against Germany's Alexander Zverev IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters/Robert Deutsch | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters

Ben Shelton has four titles and a 41-19 record this season, winning trophies in Dallas, Munich, Stuttgart, and Montreal, each on a different surface. He reached his first major final at the US Open, where he lost to Zverev, and beat Alcaraz in a five-set quarterfinal match. 

However, Alcaraz won their most recent matchup in the Paris Masters final, beating Shelton 7-6(5), 7-5. Shelton’s power and recent form make him a danger to anyone in a best-of-three match, but he went 0-3 in last year’s round robin and is 1-19 in his career against top-three players.

5. Arthur Fils

Aug 23, 2026; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Arthur Fils (FRA) reacts after returning a shot against Frances Tiafoe (USA) during the finals of the Cincinnati Open at Lindner Family Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After missing about eight months with a chronic back injury, Arthur Fils won two titles in 2026: Barcelona and Cincinnati. His record stands at 39-16 with a career-high ranking of No. 7 despite battling injuries throughout the season.

He retired in the Basel quarterfinal with a leg problem, raising questions about his health heading into the Finals. He’ll be making his ATP Finals debut this year, giving him plenty to prove, and he will be the first Frenchman playing at the event since Gaël Monfils in 2016.

6. Frances Tiafoe

Tennis - U.S. Open - Flushing Meadows, New York, United States - September 11, 2026 Frances Tiafoe of the U.S. celebrates a point during his semi final match against Ben Shelton of the U.S. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters/Geoff Burke | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters

Frances Tiafoe is also playing in the ATP Finals for the first time after the best season of his career. He won Halle, his biggest title so far, and reached the Cincinnati final and the US Open semifinals. His record this season sits at 44-21, and he and Shelton are chasing the first American champion since Pete Sampras in 1999. 

Tiafoe has five top-10 wins this year, tied with Fils for the second most in the field behind Alcaraz, but his best result at a Masters 1000 event was the Cincinnati final, which he lost 6-3, 1-6, 6-0 to Fils. This makes the American look more like a dark horse than a real contender.

7. Rafael Jodar

Aug 17, 2026; Mason, OH, USA; Rafael Jodar (ESP) reacts against Alejandro Tabilo (CHI) during the Cincinnati Open at Lindner Family Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The 20-year-old Spaniard is the youngest player in the field and another debutant, with a 45-19 record and one title in Marrakech this season. He has top-10 wins over Alex de Minaur and Medvedev, and he also reached the Shanghai final. It’s been a remarkable first full season for Jodar, but with only two top-10 wins this year, it’s a long shot to win the title in his first appearance.

8. Flavio Cobolli

Tennis - U.S. Open - Flushing Meadows, New York, United States - September 5, 2026 Italy's Flavio Cobolli reacts during his third round match against Belgium's Alexander Blockx IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters/Geoff Burke | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters

Flavio Cobolli has one title this season and the weakest record of the eight qualifiers at 36-24. He reached the French Open final, losing to Zverev in five sets. This will be his first career appearance at the ATP Finals, and he gets to play in front of his home crowd in Italy.

His other highlights this year include the Acapulco title, where he beat Tiafoe 7-6(4), 6-4, a final in Munich, and a Cincinnati semifinal that lifted him to a career-high No. 6. He recently withdrew from the Paris Masters due to a muscle strain, so his fitness is another major question.

Who Will Win the 2026 ATP Finals?

With Jannik Sinner out of the picture, the 2026 ATP Finals are ready to crown a new champion. Alcaraz and Zverev are the two clear favorites, but their records against each other and the field tell different stories. Alcaraz’s 2026 numbers are the best in the group, while Zverev’s top-10 record leaves more room for doubt. Behind them, the field is wide open, with two former champions, four debutants, and the possibility of a first American winner in 27 years.

The ATP Finals kick off on November 15th in Turin with Zverev and Alcaraz on opposite sides of the draw.