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Carlos Alcaraz Gets Dream Draw at 2026 Australian Open

Breaking down Carlos Alcaraz's round-by-round projections at the 2026 Australian Open.
Pat Benson|
Carlos Alcaraz received a favorable draw at the 2026 Australian Open.
Carlos Alcaraz received a favorable draw at the 2026 Australian Open. | IMAGO / AAP

On Thursday morning, tournament organizers for the Australian Open unveiled the men's and women's singles draw. Tennis fans quickly poured over the brackets to see where their favorite players landed.

Of course, ATP World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz is likely to receive the most favorable draw. However, his path to a potential final showdown against Jannik Sinner in Rod Laver Arena looks incredibly clear. Below is a round-by-round breakdown of Alcaraz's path to victory.

In the first round, Alcaraz will face Adam Walton. Alcaraz is 1-0 against the World No. 79. In the second round, Alcaraz will face either Yannick Hanfmann, a qualifier, or a lucky loser. Alcaraz is 1-0 against the No. 101 Hanfmann.

Should Alcaraz advance to the third round, he could face either the 32-seed Corentin, Sebastian Korda, or Michael Zheng. Alcaraz is 4-1 against Korda, but has never faced Corentin and Zheng.

The fourth round only gets slightly tougher for Alcaraz. He would likely face either 19-seed Tommy Paul or 14-seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Alcaraz is 5-2 against Paul and 2-0 against Davidovich Fokina.

If Alcaraz makes it to the quarterfinal, he could face 6-seed Alex de Minaur, 10-seed Alexander Bublik, or 20-seed Flavio Cobolli. Alcaraz is 5-0 against de Minaur, 1-0 against Cobolli, and has never faced Bublik.

The semifinal could pit Alcaraz against 3-seed Alexander Zverev, 7-seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, 11-seed Daniil Medvedev, or 13-seed Andrey Rublev. Alcaraz is 6-6 against Zverev, 5-3 against Auger-Aliassime, 6-2 against Medvedev, and 4-1 against Rublev.

If Alcaraz makes it to the final, he would most likely face one-seed Jannik Sinner. However, 4-seed Novak Djokovic, 5-seed Lorenzo Musetti, 8-seed Ben Shelton, and 9-seed Taylor Fritz are also on the opposite side of the draw.

Alcaraz has never made it past the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, but this could be his year. Even with a new-look coaching staff.

The 2026 Australian Open's main draw kicks off on Sunday, January 18. The action concludes for the women on Saturday, January 31, and the men on Sunday, February 1.

Stay locked into Sports Illustrated's Serve On SI for all of your tennis style news from the court and beyond.

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Published
Pat Benson
PAT BENSON

Pat Benson covers professional tennis for Serve on Sports Illustrated, reporting on ATP and WTA events worldwide. From Challenger tournaments to Grand Slams, he brings readers in-depth coverage, daily recaps, and exclusive interviews with some of the biggest names in the sport. With a decade of experience in sports journalism, Pat is recognized as a trusted voice in tennis media. You can contact him at 1989patbenson@gmail.com.

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