USMNT’s Potential Route to the 2026 World Cup Final
Only eight games stand between the U.S. men’s national team and the nation’s first-ever men’s World Cup trophy.
Excitement for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to unfold across the United States, Canada and Mexico next summer, reached a fever pitch following Friday’s draw at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C. All 48 teams competing in soccer’s biggest tournament learned their World Cup paths, including the Stars and Stripes.
Mauricio Pochettino, donned with the pressure of leading the USMNT on home soil in front of the entire world, can now truly start preparing for what could be the biggest challenge of his illustrious career on the touchline—turning a U.S. side that made a group stage exit at Copa América 2024 into a team worthy of becoming world champions in 2026.
The Stars and Stripes’ quest for World Cup glory all begins in the group stage, where they received a favorable draw in Group D. Their route to MetLife Stadium and the 2026 World Cup final, though, is anything but easy.
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USMNT’s Group Stage Opponents
Paraguay (Pot 3)
- Date: June 12, 2026
- Location: Inglewood, CA
- Stadium: SoFi Stadium
The USMNT kick off their 2026 World Cup campaign against Paraguay in front of a home crowd in California. The Stars and Stripes will feel confident going against the CONMBEOL side given they just defeated Gustavo Alfaro’s men 2–1 in an international friendly during the November window.
Still, former Newcastle United man Miguel Almirón and Strasbourg’s Julio Enciso are more than capable of giving the U.S. a headache at SoFi Stadium. After all, Paraguay qualified for the 2026 World Cup with 28 points, the same amount as South American giants Colombia, Uruguay and Brazil.
Australia (Pot 2)
- Date: June 19, 2026
- Location: Lumen Field
- Stadium: Seattle
Next up for Pochettino’s men are Australia, another familiar opponent. The two sides locked horns in an international friendly in October, where the USMNT walked away with a 2–1 victory.
Despite the result, Australia have a disciplined defense, led by Serie A standout Alessandro Circati, that can give any side a problem. The Socceroos have only conceded two or more goals twice in their last 10 matches.
USMNT Head-to-Head Record With 2026 World Cup Group Stage Opponents. dark. Next. USMNT Head-to-Head Record With 2026 World Cup Group Stage Opponents
Türkiye/Romania/Slovakia/Kosovo (Pot 4)
- Date: June 25, 2026
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- Stadium: Inglewood, CA
The USMNT will have to wait until March to find out its third group stage opponent at next summer’s World Cup. The winner of UEFA Playoff C—Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia or Kosovo—will complete Group D.
Of the four sides, Türkiye are the favorites to punch their ticket to the United States, Canada and Mexico next summer. Led by Real Madrid star Arda Güler, Vincenzo Montella’s side finished out the calendar year on a four-game unbeaten run, looking much like the dominant team that defeated the USMNT in June.
USMNT Eyes First-Place Group Stage Finish
The USMNT will like its chances at finishing atop Group D next summer. The Stars and Stripes already bested Paraguay and Australia this year, and both of those wins came largely without their best players.
Six points from their first two matches will all-but guarantee the U.S. advances to the knockout stage. Plus, a positive result against the winner of UEFA Playoff C would likely see Pochettino’s men win the group.
Even if the USMNT stumbles in one of its three group stage matches, it would take a true catastrophe for the host nation to get eliminated in the group stage.
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USMNT’s Knockout Stage Path to the World Cup Final
Round of 32
- Date: July 1, 2026
- Location: Santa Clara, CA
- Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
- Likelist Opponent: Senegal
Assuming the USMNT finishes first in Group D, they face a tough road to the final on July 19, beginning in the round of 32. The Stars and Stripes will face the best third place finisher from Group B, E, F, I and J.
With Sadio Mané leading their line, Senegal jump out as the team with the highest ceiling among the other teams predicted to finish third. The USMNT and Senegal have never met in the men’s World Cup.
Round of 16
- Date: July 6, 2026
- Location: Seattle
- Stadium: Lumen Field
- Likelist Opponent: Belgium
Should the Stars and Stripes come out victorious in the round of 32, they will likely take on Group G winners Belgium. The game would be a rematch of the 2014 FIFA World Cup round of 16, where Tim Howard famously put in one of the greatest individual performances in USMNT history.
The stage would be set for the U.S. to get its revenge 12 years later.
Quarterfinals
- Date: July 10, 2026
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- Stadium: Inglewood, CA
- Likelist Opponent: Spain
Waiting for the USMNT in the quarterfinals would likely be reigning European champions Spain. Barring Argentina, there is perhaps no tougher opponent for the Stars and Stripes to face.
It would take a monumental effort from Christian Pulisic and co. to get past the likes of Lamine Yamal, Pedri and Nico Williams. Anything is possible, though, on home soil.
Semifinals
- Date: July 15, 2026
- Location: AT&T Stadium
- Stadium: Arlington, TX
- Likeliest Opponent: France
Barring a massive upset, France will reach the semifinals of the 2026 World Cup, where they would then play the USMNT. Didier Deschamps’s squad is full of superstars, including Kylian Mbappé and 2025 Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé.
While Les Bleus are a powerhouse, they are not impossible to hold to a draw or even defeat; Iceland, Spain, Croatia and Israel all walked away with a result against France in the last 12 months.
Final
- Date: July 19, 2026
- Location: East Rutherford, NJ
- Stadium: MetLife Stadium
- Likeliest Opponent: Argentina
The defending world champions are the favorites to make it out of the right side of the bracket and into the 2026 World Cup final. La Albiceleste followed up their triumph in Qatar by winning Copa América 2024 and are ranked second in FIFA rankings for a reason.
There would be no greater spectacle to unfold at MetLife Stadium than pitting Lionel Messi and Argentina against the USMNT on American soil.
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