Georgia vs. Ohio State: College Football Playoff game prediction, preview
This year's College Football Playoff brings us another intriguing Big Ten vs. SEC matchup as Georgia and Ohio State face off in the Peach Bowl semifinal game.
Defending national champion Georgia is 13-0 for the first time in school history and playing historically great defense these last two seasons. It ranks second in FBS allowing 12.7 points per game behind a physical front seven alignment backed up by a gifted and agile secondary unit working in the deep field.
Ohio State earned a CFP berth by the back door after losing the season finale to eventual Big Ten champion Michigan, making its fifth College Football Playoff appearance and its third under head coach Ryan Day.
Related: College Football Playoff games, rankings: How to watch, stream
Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud tied for 1st nationally with 37 touchdown passes, and emerged as a Heisman Trophy finalist leading an offense that averaged 44.5 points per game.
Georgia is 11-4 against Big Ten teams all-time, including a 10-2 mark in bowl games, and Ohio State is 5-12-1 against the SEC, going 2-11 in bowl games.
It's a battle of strength vs. strength as the Ohio State offense lines up against the Georgia defense for the right to play for the CFP national championship.
Here's what you need to know about the matchup with the latest betting information and our latest predictions for the game.
College Football Playoff: Georgia vs. Ohio State prediction, preview
Georgia vs. Ohio State: College Football Playoff prediction, preview
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How to watch, stream
When: Sat., Dec. 31
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
CFP Peach Bowl game odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: Georgia is listed as 4.5 point favorites against Ohio State | Georgia -4.5 (-118) | Ohio State +4.5 (-110)
Total: 62 | Over -118 | Under -110
Moneyline: Georgia -250 | Ohio State +170
FPI prediction: Georgia has the 57.5 percent chance to win the game, compared with Ohio State at 42.5 percent, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.
Spread consensus pick: Georgia -4.5 (78% of bets going with the Bulldogs)
More: Georgia vs. Ohio State picks, predictions by computer model
Georgia betting trends
+ Georgia is 7-6 against the spread overall this season
+ 8 of Georgia's games hit the under
+ But 3 of its last 4 games hit the over
+ UGA is 4-0 ATS when favored by 20 or fewer points
+ The over is 4-1 in Georgia's last 5 after allowing under 100 rushing yards last time out
+ Bulldogs are 3-0 against the spread vs. ranked opponents
+ Georgia averaged 42 points per game against top 25 teams
More: Kirk Herbstreit warns Ohio State could get "embarrassed" by Georgia
Ohio State betting trends
+ Ohio State is 5-6-1 against the spread overall this season
+ 9 of OSU's last 10 games hit the over
+ Buckeyes are 0-3-1 against the spread against winning teams
+ Ohio State is 6-2 SU and ATS in the College Football Playoff era as an underdog
+ OSU is 1-2 SU and ATS in playoff games under Day
+ The over is 9-1 in Ohio State's last 10 games overall
+ Over is 6-0 in Buckeyes' last six games against winning teams
College Football Playoff Peach Bowl: What you need to know
Ohio State vs. Georgia: What to watch for
1. The key matchup. That being Ohio State's wide receivers against Georgia's defensive backs. The game could be won or lost there. Marvin Harrison, who has 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns, and Emeka Egbuka, who had 1,039 yards and nine scores, lead a Buckeyes' pyrotechnic passing attack that boasts a battery of intermediate and deep patterns. If OSU can't get 10 yards per pass on average, it's in trouble.
Georgia's back seven is by far the most agile group OSU will go against, led by the likes of Christopher Smith and Malaki Starks. The unit had its ups and downs: it mauled Tennessee's No. 1 ranked offense by haranguing the quarterback and shutting down the receivers, but also surrendered over 500 passing yards to LSU. Georgia's corners have been criticized for their ball skills in man coverage and the Buckeyes could expose some relative vulnerabilities on their deeper pass plays.
2. Georgia can strangle you at the line. That is, if defensive tackle Jalen Carter brings his A-game, as he did late in the season after recovering from an early MCL injury. Carter is a physical specimen who can create a one-man pass rush from the inside in the B-gap and throw quarterbacks out of rhythm and off schedule, and can close down almost any running lane on the interior.
Ohio State needs to generate the power on the interior to consistently guard against Carter's inside rush, but by committing extra manpower to stopping him, could also expose itself to extra unwanted pressure coming off the edges, which will have the effect of forcing Stroud into hurried throws, which may affect his accuracy and tilt this gifted passing game off its form. Ohio State will have to play the fastest game of its season.
3. Battle of the skill players. On paper, that edge would seem to be with Ohio State and its QB/WR tandem, but was notably hit hard by injuries this season. Wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had just five catches all year and starting running back TreVeyon Henderson is out with a foot injury. Those are two big losses, but it still had two 1,000-yard pass catchers and Miyan Williams played well in relief of Henderson, scoring 13 touchdowns with 817 yards. Dallan Hayden also had over 500 yards and scored five times in limited action.
Georgia tight end Brock Bowers is arguably the premier offensive player in college football, boasting size and versatility that helps him expose the slightest coverage gap and rip off major yards after the catch with elite speed. Combined with Darnell Washington, a 6-foot-7 behemoth at tight end, Georgia fields one of the top 1-2 threats in the nation, and plays with both on the field around 60% of the time and both can create mismatches unlike any other pairing.
Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett looked even better this year than last, handling pressure with more confidence and making more plays with his legs. Bennett hit over 68% of his passes for 3,425 yards with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions while running for 7 scores.
Georgia vs. Ohio State Prediction
Georgia vs. Ohio State: Who wins, and why?
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The name of the game is pressuring the quarterback, and that's what Georgia may do best. And it's what Ohio State can't afford to allow.
Stroud can be a wizard throwing the ball, but he needs the space to work: according to PFF, he completes over 71% of his throws in a clean pocket, compared to just 41.9% when under pressure.
"SEC Speed" is a phrase you usually hear in these situations, and for good reason, though on the perimeter and in space, this is one year where Ohio State can match Georgia step for step at the skill positions.
But it won't count for much if the Buckeyes get chased around the line of scrimmage by the Bulldogs' front seven pursuit group, which happens to be their specialty.
College Football HQ Peach Bowl prediction: Georgia 39, Ohio State 24 (Georgia -4.5, Over 62)
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