$50k Mistakes? 5 Sports Card Sales That Are Overvalued

Sports cards have entered an era where modern rookies and rare parallels are selling for the price of a new vehicle. In some cases, those prices are justified. Legendary players with Hall of Fame résumés have earned their place at the top of the market.

But in other cases, hype has simply outpaced logic. Over the past year, several modern cards of unproven players have crossed the $60,000 mark. Most of these sales have been driven by hype and short-term speculation.

Below are five instances where sports cards sold for more than a high-end vehicle. Included are the reasons these valuations will likely fail the test of time.

1. Amen Thompson 2023 Prizm Nebula Choice 1/1 Rookie

Price: $59,780, (sold February 1st, 2025)

Why it is Priced to Fail: Amen Thompson is an exciting young NBA player with elite athleticism. But he is not the kind of player to invest $60,000 dollars in on a single card. He has not shown the offensive ability to be the best player (or even the 2nd best player) on a championship contending team.

This sale highlights a common trap in today’s market. Investors rush to pay a premium for a rookie’s 1/1 the moment they show promise, assuming it's the "definitive" card. However, as manufacturers release more high-end sets, newer 1/1s with superior designs or prestige inevitably emerge.

Thompson has not made an All-Star team, has not led a playoff run, and has not demonstrated he will ever develop into an elite offensive player. Some have even called Thompson “Ben Simmons Lite” because of his lack of jumper and elite defensive skills. His skill set and projection do not support a price point normally associated with MVP-caliber players.

2. Cal Raleigh 2022 Topps Chrome Superfractor Auto 1/1

Price: $63,440 (sold September 6th, 2025)

Why it is Priced to Fail: Despite a historic 60-homer season in 2025, Cal Raleigh’s hasn't reached "all-time great" territory like the 63K price would suggest. Outside of his record-breaking season this past year, his production has been solid but unspectacular. Raleigh’s second-best season in 2024 yielded a .748 OPS. That is hardly the stuff of hobby legends. Investors are currently paying for a peak that Raleigh has only reached once.

For Raleigh’s Superfractor autograph to hold its value, he will have to become one of the greatest catchers of all time. While this is possible, a lot has to go right for it to happen. Johnny Bench, considered by most to be the best catcher ever, has only one widely recognized rookie card and it last sold for $7,087 in a PSA 9 (only 17 graded higher.)

The combination of hype and scarcity becomes dangerous in the sports card market. Just because the Cal Raleigh card is a 1/1 does not automatically make it historically important. It is far more probable that Raleigh is a good catcher coming off a career year than it is that he will sustain the trajectory of a Hall of Famer.

3. Justin Herbert 2020 Contenders Super Bowl Ticket Auto 1/1

Price: $45,600 (sold December 19th, 2025) (Also sold in September, 2025 for $73,201)

Why it is Priced to Fail: While $45,000 may feel like a bargain compared to the $1.8 million Herbert record-high set in 2022, it remains an overpay for a player whose market has cooled significantly. At roughly 1/25th the price of Herbert’s all-time "grail," this sale still reflects a high-risk gamble that is difficult to justify given his current career resume and trajectory.

Justin Herbert is a talented quarterback who has the size, athleticism, arm strength, and highlight throws to be a top 5 QB in the NFL. What he does not have is playoff success, championships, or an All-Pro Selection.

Quarterbacks are priced by rings, MVPs, and legacy. Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Montana have earned their premiums through Super Bowls and consistency. So have Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and John Elway, but their cards are surprisingly affordable. Herbert’s card sold as if he is already on the same level as the above-mentioned QBs, but he isn’t even close.

4. Jayden Daniels 2024 Donruss Optic Downtown Gold /10

Jayden Daniels Gold Downtown — Card Ladder

Price: $74,378 (Sold August 7, 2025)

Why it is Priced to Fail: While Jayden Daniels boasts immense potential and a resume featuring a Heisman Trophy and an NFL Rookie of the Year award, history offers a cautionary tale. A QB named Robert Griffin III once displayed elite skills during a standout rookie season for the Commanders, only to see his career be ruined by injuries. To avoid repeating the past, collectors should exercise caution before investing heavily in Daniels' high-priced cards.

In June 2025, a Jayden Daniels Prizm Black Finite 1/1 card sold for $500,000 to Commanders owner Josh Harris. However, Daniels had a more difficult sophomore campaign in 2025, throwing for 1,262 yards and 8 touchdowns across only seven games due to injury.

For every Mahomes, there are dozens of Robert Griffins, Mac Jones, and Carson Wentzs. Collectors should be weary of investing too much after one good season.

5. Caitlin Clark 2024 Panini Instant WNBA Autographs Blue Viper 1/1

Price: $62,220 (Sold June 28th, 2025)

At first glance, this Caitlin Clark 1/1 sale might seem reasonable. Caitlin Clark is one of the most popular women’s basketball players ever, and her cultural impact is undeniable. A 1/1 auto of Clark should demand a premium.

But a closer analysis of the sale reveals that it is a significant overpayment. Despite its 1-of-1 status, several other Caitlin Clark Blue Viper 1-of-1s exist. For a card with such a high price tag, the autograph is not even on-card (it is on a sticker). Furthermore, with 27 other Caitlin Clark cards commanding higher prices, this $60,000 purchase fails to even crack her top 20 most valuable cards.

WNBA cards historically do not command such high prices, even for legendary players. Clark’s market surge is driven by mainstream attention and hype, but she has not proven to be the best player in her sport.

As of early 2026, A’ja Wilson is the WNBA’s best active player, accumulating three championships, four MVP awards, and three Defensive Player of the Year honors. It seems like a longshot for Clark to reach GOAT status because of the underrated Wilson, but Clark is already commanding GOAT prices.