Grading Ultra-Modern Base Rookie Cards May Be A Waste Of Money
Grading trading cards has never been hotter, but is it a smart choice?
It depends on what cards you're grading. A series of new datapoints reveals that grading ultra-modern base rookie cards of hot players, for instance, may not be something that makes long-term financial sense.
In a YouTube video posted by Chris Sewell, who calls himself "a baseball card collector, investor, dealer, in that order," made a video commenting on the fact that a rookie card of basketball sensation Victor Wembanyama had become the most-graded ever by PSA.
Overall, six of the top 10 individual cards graded the most by PSA last year were Wembanyama cards, with his Prizm rookie card ranking No. 1. In fact, the top card on the list also holds the record for the most PSA 10s of any sports card.
𝐏𝐒𝐀 𝐒𝐋𝐀𝐁𝐁𝐄𝐃 📊 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒
— PSAcard (@PSAcard) December 20, 2024
You might pick up on a theme in terms of who dominated the grading room this year on the sports side. 👽
Take a closer look at data insights & highlights from the year that was at PSA.
➡️ https://t.co/VArjPTgQJ1 pic.twitter.com/AxD8SAtie4
Collectors slab cards with PSA and other graders to verify its authenticity in order to objectively assess its condition, which often leads to a higher resale value. While that may be the case if you're flipping a card quickly, paying for grading of new base cards may not be sound choice.
"[Base rookie cards] will start high and then go down," Sewell said.
In his video posted Thursday, Sewell, using a series of charts, uncovered why grading base rookie cards of ultra-modern players may not be such a great economic choice.
Grading, overall, is up since the pandemic, according to GemRate, which tracks the number of graded cards each week from PSA, CGC, SGC and Beckett.
As Sewell pointed out in his video, the top 12 rookie base cards given a PSA 10 grade only date back to 2018, with the pandemic giving slabbing cards a major boost starting in 2020.
Sewell, using the graph below, noted that six of the cards on the top 12 PSA list are currently worth less than $20, the price it typically costs to grade a card.
"Half the cards on the list don't even cover the cost of grading a PSA 10," Sewell said. "The top half is a little better, but not a whole lot."
A stark example is Gavin Lux's rookie card from 2020 Topps Series 1, worth just $4.
"Over time, [collectors] are losing money," Sewell said.
Clemente Lisi is a writer and editor with nearly three decades of experience. You can follow him at x.com/ClementeLisi.