Corbin Carroll Rebounds in MLB's Second Half. Can His Cards Do the Same?

Sep 2, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll (7). | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

Corbin Carroll was one of the bigger hobby disappointments of MLB’s first half along with Bo Bichette, Julio Rodriguez, and a slew of injured pitchers. Things still aren’t looking bright for the rest, but if you’ve written off Corbin Carroll in the hobby, it looks like it is time to start paying attention again.

Carroll’s first half was bad. Really bad. Bottom-10 OPS in MLB bad. He wasn’t hitting the ball as hard as he did his rookie year. His average exit velocity dipped a couple of mph. There were constant discussions of his shoulder injury from last year sapping his production, but collectors were growing restless with the weaker contact and poor production.

Corbin Carroll's 2nd HR of the night is a GO-AHEAD GRAND SLAM! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/fvTsXRrXGA

— MLB (@MLB) August 29, 2024

Caroll’s cards dipped heavily during the first half losing 40% on average from the start of the season. The buzz around Carroll fit the dip. He quickly went from stud rookie to cautionary tale in the course of a few months. It was hard to find Carroll defenders or collectors, but sellers were plentiful.

Happily, his second half has been a complete turnaround. Where his contact was weaker than last year’s in the first half, his exit velocity is up a couple of mph over last year’s and over 4 mph from the first half. As bad as he was in the first half, he’s been as good recently. His OPS is almost 300! Points higher in the second half than the first. That’s the difference between first-ballot hall-of-famer and being out of the league.

A busy day after a busy week. ✨

Corbin Carroll is also your NL Player of the Week after hitting .391/.423/1.087 with 5 HR, and 11 RBI in six games. pic.twitter.com/ncGHW90WY7

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 3, 2024

Carroll’s cards have rebounded slightly, but they are still a fraction of their value at the start of the season. He presents a conundrum with two very different halves of his season. If collectors think he’ll produce like the second half, then he’ll be back on hobby radars very soon.