Are Tristan Casas Cards in Pain?
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Entering 2025 Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas had dreams of rewriting the script when it came to success, both individually and on a team level.
Those dreams and aspirations came crashing down at the same time Casas fell to the dirt on May 2. In an attempt to beat an infield hit down the first base line, Casas ruptured his patellar tendon in his left knee which put an end to his season. In 29 games this season, the left-handed slugger managed to hit just .182 with three home runs. This injury comes off the heels of a 2024 season in which Casas was limited to just 63 games due to a rib injury that sidelined him for months.
While this no doubt puts the Red Sox without significant production from the first base position, Casas' card market may begin to take on a different outlook with this latest setback. Casas, whose rookie products hit the shelves during the 2023 cycle, surely had plenty of collectors hoping he would pan out to be the next left-handed slugger in Beantown.
As of mid-May and following the season-ending injury, there have been zero 2023 Topps Chrome refractor rookie autographs numbered to 499 that have been sold. Prior to the injury, those same cards were valued between $20-50.
Let's explore the various directions a collector could go when it comes to the Boston corner infielder:
Option 1: Hold and hope
Keep the glass half full! While Casas has not been able to showcase the talent that made the Red Sox select him in the first round in 2018. It was not long ago that Casas was a finalist for the 2023 American League Rookie of the Year award after slugging 24 homers and an .856 OPS. Despite his tough start to the season before the injury, Casas' career stats bring him to an even .800 OPS in 251 games and above average batting metrics thus far. Add in the current state of his cards on the market, and it may make sense to look for a return onto the field before making future decisions.
Option 2: Sell and get out
This option seems like the road most Casas collectors will explore taking with another lost season upcoming. Beside the fact of the injury being more severe than the prior one, Casas will have played just 92 games between the 2024 and 2025 seasons. For some, Casas has begun to acquire the "injury prone" label with just one fully healthy season so far in his MLB career. The prices on his cards have dropped significantly in the two weeks since being injured and an even larger percentage since the start of the season in late-March. If a collector were to decide to liquidate their Casas cards, it seems the longer they wait, the more value they miss out on.
Option 3: Buy at the floor
This may appear to be the most outlandish option of the three depending on which type of collector someone is. Similar to the points made in option one, there are reasons to believe enough to further collect a 25-year-old player with an above average power profile at a much lower price tag than even a few months prior. On Friday, a rare Triston Casas Card that sold for $108, with the last sale prior to that being on April 1 for $201. There is certainly room to acquire base autographs or even higher end cards for a fraction of what they were going for.
Price of Casas' cards will without a doubt be slashed for much of the summer and into the winter. If a collector sees the first baseman bouncing back in a big way, this is the time to try and maximize on his card market.
Dan Gardella is a Red Sox fan and collector growing up in Yankee territory in Connecticut. While only reviving his love for the hobby a few years ago, he provides knowledge into baseball cards from prospects to the big leagues.
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