State of the Card Market: Is It Time to Sell?

On the Sports Cards Nonsense podcast this week, Mike and Jesse discussed the amount of big money coming into the hobby from outside sources. They discussed the announcement of CardVault by Tom Brady's new round of funding and getting names like Jay-Z, Aaron Judge, Connor McDavid, and Dana White on board.

One topic that came out of it: people getting priced out of the hobby. While one positive of the current market is that everyone's collections are worth more. So would it make sense to cash out at some of the current prices? Even if it isn't everything, things can't keep going straight up forever, so is it time to take some wins? While big money entering the hobby didn't necessarily keep things moving up, it does seem like we are due for some sort of market correction eventually.

Big Money in the Hobby

There has been an influx of money in the hobby lately, and while it doesn't directly contribute to the state of the current market, but people wouldn't be opening dozens of card shops across the country or doing 100-case breaks without it.

Card prices are higher, overall sales data is higher. Everything is up. Things have quite literally never been this "good" in the card market.

That has had some negative effects though.

"I got news for you. It doesn't matter that if you pull this card, Cooper Flagg has you to his house for dinner. Every Sunday, you know, the first Sunday of the month. It doesn't matter that you get to go hang out with Tom Brady and have a shoulder ride. Yes. And you get to go tackle Jevon Kearse. None of that matters if everybody in the hobby is just like, Hey, we can't afford it," said Mike Giosefii on the podcast.

And he's right, but who is to blame? Mike noticed that it isn't just things the price of singles going up, it is everything.

"I don't want to have to sell prized possessions to go chase some of this new stuff. Sure. Now I'm not condemning breaking. I'm not condemning if guys want to go out and speculate on the next young quarterback or the next prospect or whatever. But when the price of everything starts to get so -- and by the way, I'm not even just talking Fanatics. Fanatics is expensive. Panini has been expensive the last few years. Grading has gotten expensive. The experience to travel to a card show and to set up, when the price, these things continue to go up.

I'm not saying it's not a better product. I think it is. But at some point it's like, okay, for me to now fund buying a couple of cards of this guy, ripping one of these boxes, traveling to The National, Fanatics Fest, whatever it is, and grading a few cards, I now have to sell a Tom Brady card worth $6500 to fund that other stuff."

To further Mike's point, it isn't just that things are more expensive; a lot of things are also more unattainable.

If Everything Is Going Up, is Now the Time to Sell?

The PSA grading booth at the National Sports Collectors Convention | www.nytimes.com/athletic

Mike's co-host, Jesse Gibson, agreed and had a follow-up thought.

"I cannot foresee a future where we can just continue to sustain what we're looking at right now, where everything is at this price. Because, like you said, if every product is up, if everything is corporatized, the people who are in this hobby, like for the vast majority up until recently, we're not rich people."

As Mike pointed out, a lot of people that started out in this hobby weren't rich, but have made some decent money over the years.

"I'm saying nothing doom and gloom right now. I still think we have runway for like a year or two. and that's why I'm not saying like, sell everything you've got. But I do think take a little off the table."

Which brings us to the ultimate question here. If everything can't keep going up forever and as more and more people are getting priced out of what is supposed to be a hobby, should the average collector take wins where they can get them now while things are up.

It is an interesting debate, and I'm glad Mike and Jesse had it. There is nothing wrong with taking wins and while things aren't doom and gloom right now, I did take Mike and Jesse's advice to heart and listed a few bigger items I was planning on holding onto, but aren't PC items.

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