All Things CW: Cincinnati May Be 13-0, But Whom Have the Bearcats Really Faced?

While Cotton Bowl opponent Cincinnati only played two ranked opponents, Alabama faced that during its first three games of the 2021 season.

Author:
Christopher Walsh
Publish date:
Dec 24, 2021 9:00 AM EST

In this story:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Cincinnati Bearcats

If you try and compare the numbers, they're actually pretty close.

Alabama's offense scored 42.5 points per game this season, while Cincinnati averaged 38.8.

The Crimson Tide gave up 20.2 points per game, compared to 16.8 for the Bearcats.

Average total yards allowed are almost identical, 306.1 to 305.8. The teams are ranked seventh and eighth in the NCAA (UC slightly ahead).

The Bearcats lead the nation in passing efficiency defense, with a rating of 100.47. Cincinnati's opponents have completed 206 passes out of 385 attempts (53.5 percent), 2,188 yards allowed, with 10 passing touchdowns compared to 19 interceptions,

The rating is just slightly better that Georgia's 102.17, which took a hit in the SEC Championship Game. In comparison, Alabama is ranked 66th in the statistical category.

All things being equal, the numbers would be nothing short of eye-popping.

But things aren't equal.

The Bearcats have only played two ranked opponents this season, and no one higher than No. 9 at the time in the AP Top 25.

It faced just two opponents now ranked in the top 50 in total offense, No. 12 SMU and No. 36 Tulsa.

The Big Ten team it faced, Indiana, is No. 124 out of 130, and finished 2-10.

The Hoosiers, of course, were thought to have formidable quarterback this season, Michael Penix Jr., but he suffered a shoulder injury against Penn State. This after he rehabbed an ACL injury from last year to make it back in time for the start of the 2021 season.

His season passer rating was just 101.9, and the only reason it was that high was due to having a decent performance against Idaho. Penix has already transferred to Washington.

Jack Coan was the other prominent quarterback Cincinnati was due to face, and he did play against the Bearcats, but he was also coming off an ankle injury suffered during Notre Dame's previous game against Wisconsin.

Coan made a bad throw under pressure that helped him get benched against Cincinnati, but the Fighting Irish's best quarterback shouldn't have been blamed for the 17-0 halftime deficit.

DeShawn Pace's interception of Notre Dame freshman Tyler Buchner set up Cincinnati's first score. Chris Tyree fumbled the ensuing kickoff, resulting in a field goal. Desmond Ridder led a five-play, 80-yard drive just before halftime and Cincinnati went on to win 24-13.

So who was the best quarterback Cincinnati faced?

It wasn't Tulane's Michael Pratt, who was in concussion protocol.

The Bearcats also didn't see Miami (Ohio) quarterback Brett Gabbert, who went into his bowl game with the best passer rating of any Cincinnati opponent this season (159.07, 14th in the nation). The brother of NFL quarterback Blaine Gabbert didn't play after suffering a knee injury during camp.

Consequently, the answer has to be Houston junior Clayton Tune, who for the season was 261-for-381, for 3,263 yards, with nine interceptions and 28 touchdowns thrown.

Not surprisingly, he had the best showing against the Bearcats:

Miami (Ohio): AJ Mayer, 9-28-0, 109 yards. Passer rating 64.8.

Murray State: Preston Rice, 17-29-3, 149 yards (doesn't play FBS).

Indiana: Michael Penix Jr., 17-40-2, 224 yards. Rating 91.0.

Notre Dame: Jack Coan, 17-22-1, 114 yards. Rating 98.1. (Drew Pine was 9-for-22)

Temple: D'Wan Mathis, 16-27-1, 120 yards. Rating 89.2.

UCF: Mikey Keene, 18-27-2, 141 yards. Rating 100.5.

Navy: Tai Lavatai 11-15-1, 116 yards. Rating 125.0.

Tulane: Kai Horton 7-16-2, 79 yards. Rating 60.2.

Tulsa: Davis Brin 17-26-0-149. Rating 126.2.

USF: Timmy McClain 16-30-2-245. Rating 119.6.

SMU: Tanner Mordecai 15-26-0, 66. Rating 91.7.

East Carolina: 19-38-1-228. Rating 103.8.

AAC Championship, Houston: Clayton Tune 17-26-1, 250 yards. Rating 163.8

If Cincinnati struggles against Alabama and Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young it may be due to the simple fact that the Bearcats really haven't seen a quarterback like him all season.

What About Top Receivers?

This one is much easier to dissect.

In terms of receptions per catch, John Metchie III tops the list of Cincinnati opponents with 7.4, which is 10th in the nation. However, Metchie is probably out for the game due to a knee injury, so next up is Ryan O'Keefe, who averages 6.4 receptions per game for UCF (No. 22 nationally).

In receiving yards its Jameson Williams, 111.2 (seventh nationally).

Williams is the only receiver Cincinnati faced who was named a first-team All-American, by both the Associated Press and The Sporting News (which are used by the NCAA to determine consensus/unanimous status), along with CBS, The Athletic, and USA Today.

The only two 1,000-yard receivers the Bearcats went up against were Jack Sorenson of Miami of Ohio, and Nathanial Dell of Houston. Sorenson was without his starting quarterback. Dell had nine catches for 152 yards and a touchdown.

This isn't to suggest that Cincinnati isn't good. It is. But you really have to wonder about the competition the Bearcats played.

Alabama Still the Underdog

Even though Alabama thumped then-No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to reclaim the top spot in the College Football Playoffs, it still doesn't mean the the Crimson Tide is favored to win the national title.

Yes, Alabama is favored over Cincinnati by 13.5 points in the Cotton Bowl per SI Sportsbook, while Georgia is over Michigan in the Orange Bowl by 7.5.

But the Bulldogs are still considered the team to beat according to BetOnline.

Specifically, Alabama has the best odds to win the title (+120 compared to +145), but that's in part due to the semifinal matchups. The odds for the exact outcome in the title game actually favor Georgia.

2022 NCAAF Championship Exact Outcome

Georgia defeats Alabama: 19/10
Alabama defeats Georgia: 2/1
Alabama defeats Michigan: 23/4
Michigan defeats Alabama: 7/1
Georgia defeats Cincinnati: 19/2
Michigan defeats Cincinnati: 22/1
Cincinnati defeats Georgia: 25/1
Cincinnati defeats Michigan: 33/1

Consequently, that debate on if Alabama play the underdog card in the playoff is over. It can, but so can every other team in the semifinals, especially Cincinnati.

"No. 1 doesn’t mean anything," Crimson Tide defensive lineman Phidarian Mathis correctly said this past week. "We still got to work."

Tide-Bits

• The Pro Bowl Skills Showdown will include for the first time Best Catch and Fastest Man events, plus, and I swear we're not making this up, a game of dodgeball. Per the release: "In the grand finale, Pro Bowlers will compete in a classic game of dodgeball, with every member of each team participating. In a best of three series, the team with the last person on the court wins." Remember, it's "Dodge, duck, dip, dive and dodge."

• The NFL also announced that the combine will be March 1-7 in Indianapolis. Free agency begins at 3 p.m. (CT) on March 16. The 2022 NFL Draft is set for April 28-30 in Las Vegas.

• Here is the very short list of players who have more interceptions in a single season during the Super Bowl era than Trevon Diggs, who has 10 with three games remaining: Lester Hayes (Oakland Raiders 1980) 13; Mike Reinfeldt (Houston Oilers 1979) 12; Emmitt Thomas (Kansas City Chiefs 1974) 12; Mel Blount (Pittsburgh Steelers 1975) 11; Bill Bradley (Philadelphia Eagles 1971) 11; Everson Walls (Dallas Cowboys 1981) 11.