Cotton Bowl Lookahead: Cincinnati Defense Faces Toughest Test of the Season

Something's gotta give between two units that powered their programs to the College Football Playoff.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Dec 23, 2021 3:12 PM EST

CINCINNATI — The 2021 Cotton Bowl is a little over a week away as No. 4 Cincinnati and No. 1 Alabama prepare to face off with a National Championship berth on the line. The Crimson Tide are 13.5 point favorites over UC, and the Alabama offense is a big reason for that betting line.

Quarterback Bryce Young and wide receiver Jameson Williams make up one of the most dynamic downfield connections in the country. They go up against arguably the toughest test of their football lives in the Cincinnati secondary.

Let's assess how Alabama's offense matches up against Cincinnati's defense in the second portion of the Cotton Bowl Lookahead.

As I mentioned, things start and end with Young, who became the first Alabama quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy this season. The six-foot, 190-pound passer threw for 4,322 yards (eighth nationally), 43 touchdowns (second), and eight interceptions on 9.4 yards per attempt (eighth).

Young was hyper-efficient all season and more than earned his Heisman as a sophomore. What he did in 2021 is unheard of by underclassmen. He was PFF's highest-graded quarterback this season (92.9 Overall Grade) and is the only non-draft eligible passer in the site's history to earn that high of a grade throughout a full season. Young's the straw that stirs a potent drink.

Something to particularly keep an eye on with Young is how he deals with plays where UC gets pressure. No pass rush has been able to consistently marry its sets with backend coverage this year.

Overall, Alabama ranks seventh in offensive EPA/play this season (0.182), with the third-ranked passing EPA/play (0.305) and 75th ranked rushing EPA/play (0.011). They rank in the top ten of every Fremeau Offensive Efficiency Index rating, including points per drive (3.43), and touchdown rate (44.3%).

The Tide have played in seven of the eight CFP's for a reason. Saban's team never misses a beat and is an offensive juggernaut every year with the quarterback talent they can bring in. Alabama is just average in the run game though.

I mentioned their below-average EPA/rush ranking, which resulted in 147.6 yards per game (80th) and 4.1 yards per carry (79th). Despite the run/pass ranking discrepancy, Alabama stays balanced, rushing 36.3 times per game and throwing 37.5 times.

Senior running back Brian Robinson leads the team with 1,071 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns (tied for 19th) on 4.8 yards per carry (tied for 140th). Yet, the real weapon to watch on this offense (and special teams) is Williams.

He is largely thought of as the top wide receiver in the 2022 NFL Draft, and it's not hard to see why. Williams has amassed 1,445 yards (fifth) and 15 touchdowns (second) in 2021 on 21.3 yards per catch (fifth).

The dude's a walking big play, posting 12 touchdown catches over 20 yards downfield for 631 yards and eight touchdowns. Get close to pay dirt, and he stays comfortable. According to PFF, he boasts the highest passer rating in the country when targeted in the endzone (152.1).

Alabama is without its top pass catcher in John Metchie III (96 catches, 1,142 yards, eight touchdowns) for this game, but the Tide have more than enough weapons to overcome the loss. The big question for this game is how well will Alabama's offensive line hold up.

That's been the Achilles heel in 2021, and the unit is currently preparing without its offensive line coach. Doug Marrone tested positive for COVID-19 this week and won't be available for game-planning leading up to the contest.

The Crimson Tide hogs have been a bit sloppy this season. Alabama's unit ranks 46th in average line rushing yards (2.78 YPC) and allows a sack on 6.4% of dropbacks (67th). The timeless clíche holds true in Texas: trench warfare will decide this game.

All of the headlines are taken by the flashy weapons up against arguably the best secondary in the nation, but the big fellas will guide the action on New Year's Eve.

The Crimson Tide sack rate allowed jumps to 8.5% on passing downs (75th), driving home the fact that UC needs to make Alabama as predictable as possible. Nick Saban's team isn't ranked higher than 44th in any Football Outsiders offensive line metric, something DL Curtis Brooks and DE Myjai Sanders need to take advantage of.

Cornerbacks Coby Bryant and Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner obviously need to play the games of their lives to control Williams and the rest of this weaponry. That being said, they could stand on their heads, and it won't matter if Young has all day to throw. Overall, Cincinnati's defense is fourth in rushing EPA/play allowed (-0.163) and seventh in passing EPA/play allowed (-0.167).

Brooks and Sanders lead a Bearcats defensive line that ranks 21st in average line yards per carry allowed (2.39), 38th in stuff rate (19.9%), and 16th in sack rate (9.3%). Around four or five sacks on Young is likely the minimum Cincinnati needs in this game, and they'll be right there if they keep up that season average.

Sanders has a huge opportunity to boost his draft stock closer to the top of the list. According to PFF, Sanders creates pressure on 23% of his true pass rush sets (pass plays without screens, RPOs, or play-action). That ranks tied for second in the 2022 draft class. All of that's amounted to just 2.5 sacks so far this season, but players like LB Joel Dublanko (5.5 sacks), DL Malik Vann (3.5 sacks), and Brooks (team-leading 7.5 sacks) have cleaned things up.

Brooks ranks 16th among all defensive linemen in sacks this season and has forced one fumble. I picked him as the MVP of the defense partly as a way to differentiate from all of the singular praise the cornerbacks receive and also because he's deserving after a monster season. It's often not flashy, but when the mauler is playing his best football this defense reaches another ceiling from the interior pressure he creates.

Another thing worth mentioning in this matchup is the experience over the middle of the field. Dublanko and senior Darrian Beavers have nearly a decade of combined college football experience to keep them from getting lost in the moment. All while sophomore Deshawn Pace earned All-AAC honorable mention this season.

Finally, there's the back end, which houses 2021's most-decorated cornerback duo. Gardner and Bryant garnered praise throughout the postseason lull. We know the eye-popping stats by now; Gardner's never allowed a touchdown in his career or over 13 yards in coverage this season, while Bryant is the 2021 Jim Thorpe Award winner and boasts 10 career interceptions, the fifth most among active players.

That duo alongside nickelback Arquon Bush (36 tackles, three interceptions) and safety Bryan Cook (87 tackles, one interception) lead a passing defense ranked fourth nationally in opponent completion percentage (53.5%), third in interceptions (18), fifth in TD passes allowed (10) and No. 3 in passing yards allowed (168.3).

Something has to give between the best QB-WR duo and cornerback duo in the nation. Will the Bearcats shadow Williams with Gardner or throw a bevy of different looks at the game-breaker? We'll get answers to all the biggest questions from this side of the ball on New Year's Eve.

The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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