Like Usual, Early CFP Playoff Rankings Talk Misses the Mark: All Things CW
The All Things CW notes column by Christopher Walsh will appear in five parts this week, one each day as the Alabama Crimson Tide prepares to visit LSU.
This is ...
Take 3
The first official College Football Playoff rankings of the season were announced Tuesday night, and like usual were immediately followed by the first official complaints of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Why? Because it's college football and that's just the way it is.
The big issue is apparently over No. 6 Alabama and No. 7 TCU, as the Horned Frogs are undefeated and have two wins against teams in the CFP top 18, and the one-loss Crimson Tide doesn't have any.
The two wins that TCU supporters are looking at are over No. 13 Kansas State and No. 18 Oklahoma State (which lost 48-0 to the Wildcats last week).
Alabama's biggest win is at No, 24 Texas, and it lost at No. 1 Tennessee, 52-49.
Boo Corrigan, the athletic director of North Carolina State who is serving as the College Football Playoff Selection Committee chair, made it pretty clear that there was a lot more discussion about which team should be No. 1 over which should be No. 6.
"The debate over the top 25 rankings were extensive and very animated, particularly at the top," he said during the post-rankings press conference. "A case was made for Ohio State to be No. 1, for Georgia and for Tennessee, and there were good arguments for each one of the schools.
"At the end of the debate, the committee voted Tennessee No. 1 because of their impressive road win at LSU and their victory over Alabama, and Alabama is a team that the committee respects highly."
When asked specifically about Alabama and TCU, he said:
"Alabama has got the dominant wins over Mississippi State, at Arkansas, the close win at Texas. Bryce Young missed the Texas A&M game, which was close, and again, TCU with the wins against Oklahoma State at home and Kansas State at home, really good wins, really good team. But we felt like the defense struggled to keep points off the board at times, but it doesn't take away from the season they've had thus far."
Translation:
1) The SEC is better than the Big 12.
2) The Frogs aren't passing the eye test yet.
3) Alabama could still end up being the most complete team in college football.
Honestly, I wish he'd answer "If Alabama and TCU played, which team would you bet on?" The Crimson Tide would clearly be favored.
Does it really matter which team is No. 6 at this point? Probably not. Either Alabama is going to make a run and move up, or take another loss and be eliminated from contention. It's not staying in no-man's land.
Instead, what you're really hearing are those who are frustrated with the four-team playoff, and those who complain for the sake of complaining.
What so many people forget when the initial rankings come out every year is that most of this will simply play out over the next five weeks. If TCU is truly deserving to be No. 6 (which would still miss the playoff), it'll get its chance.
The Horned Frogs still have Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor and Iowa State to go, plus the likely Big 12 Championship Game, where they could be looking at a rematch with Kansas State.
TCU could go through the whole season without a true signature win.
So yes, it probably needs to run the table to have a shot at the playoff.
So does Alabama, which will have to win at No. 10 LSU and No. 11 Ole Miss on back-to-back Saturdays with both teams coming off byes, and then knock off the winner of Tennessee-Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
Any team that can do that deserves to be in the semifinals.
But here's the other reason why so much of the talk now has to be considered hype and overblown: It's so early.
Do you remember which team was No. 1 in the first CFP rankings back in 2014? It was 7-0 Mississippi State, which then promptly lost at Alabama, 25-20, and, well, that was that. The Bulldogs subsequently lost to rival Ole Miss, and then to Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl.
Here's a listing of the initial top four teams for each playoff. The bolded names are teams that actually played in the semifinals.
- 2014: Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, Ole Miss
- 2015: Clemson, LSU, Ohio State, Alabama
- 2016: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Texas A&M
- 2017: Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson
- 2018: Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Notre Dame
- 2019: Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, Penn State
- 2020: Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Ohio State
- 2021: Georgia, Alabama, Michigan State, Oregon
Only once has the initial ranking pegged the final four and it was during the coronavirus season when most stadiums were nowhere near capacity and teams played a different number of games (for example, the Buckeyes were just 6-0).
More telling is that it was the only time the team initially ranked third made it.
In short, the chances of the semifinals being Tennessee, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson are slim. At No. 5, Michigan will get its chance, and so will Alabama. TCU and the Pac-12 champion may need a little help, but have to take care of business.
We have five weeks to knock that list of eight down to four. Probably the only other team that has a chance is Ole Miss, but it would need to beat Alabama and then hope for a lot of things to fall right.
The real complaint should probably be over why LSU is No. 10, but again the SEC has earned that kind of respect, Regardless, that debate won't matter much until the 12-team playoff becomes reality, it'll just shift to more people being upset about which teams are No. 13-15.
See Also:
Take 1: Since 2007, Alabama vs. LSU Has Been College Football's Best Matchup
Take 2: Yet Another SEC Coach Came and Went During the Nick Saban Era
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