2023 Alabama Football Early Opponent Preview, Game 5: Mississippi State

As 2023 SEC Media Days approaches, BamaCentral takes a long first look at each of the Crimson Tide's upcoming opponents this season.

Something won’t feel right when the Alabama-Mississippi State game rolls around at the end of September.

With all due respect to first-year Bulldogs coach Zach Arnett, the passing of Mike Leach last December still stings.

College football lost a great offensive innovator, hilarious storyteller, and an overall good person.

He created something in Starkville that was exciting and fun to watch with the ‘Air Raid’ offense. Leach was turning the program around, even though he wasn’t successful against Alabama in his three attempts. But he wasn’t the only Bulldogs coach to fail against Alabama.

You have to go back to 2007, Nick Saban’s first year as head coach at Alabama, for the last time MSU defeated the Crimson Tide. That’s a long time ago. Heck, there’s Crimson recruits that weren’t alive the last time Mississippi State beat Alabama.

Alabama holds an 85-13-1 mark against the Bulldogs, a series that started in 1896.

The two teams have faced off every year since 1944. Alas, the 2023 game is the end of that streak. With SEC expansion, the league eliminated the divisions and tinkered with the schedule. The result is no Mississippi State game on the 2024 schedule.

That’s probably welcome news for the Bulldogs, actually. This series hasn’t exactly been competitive since Saban lost that 2007 game. In the 15 previous meetings, Alabama has scored 495 points (33 average) while the Bulldogs have scored 117 (7.8 average). In fact, MSU has just 23 points over the last five games.

That’s not much of a rivalry.

Mississippi State is on this year’s schedule, though. So let’s jump in and see what to expect from the Bulldogs when Alabama travels to Starkville.

Offense

A head coach isn’t the only new addition for the Bulldogs. Kevin Barbay takes over as offensive coordinator.

The Air Raid offense is gone but Barbay is an innovative coach in his own right. In his past two seasons as coordinator for Central Michigan and Appalachian State, Barbay's offenses averaged 448.01 yards per game (ranked in the top 20 nationally) and averaged 33 points per game.

More good news is Will Rogers is back at quarterback. He was second in the SEC with 3,974 passing yards and led the league with 35 passing touchdowns.

That’s a stellar stat line, but it means more knowing the Bulldogs have the receivers coming back to make for another strong passing attack. Last year’s second-leading receiver, Rufus Harvey (505 yards) is back, as is Lideatrick Griffin (502 yards). They do lose leading receiver Rara Thomas, who transferred to Georgia, but others are available to step up.

The ground game lost a valuable piece of the offense when Dillon Johnson opted to leave for Washington, but the Bulldogs picked up Penn State transfer Keyvone Lee to help pick up the slack. Also, leading rusher Jo’quavious Marks (582 yards) returns, so the Bulldogs are in pretty good shape.

Quarterback: No worries.

Receivers: Ditto.

Running game: Solid.

The only piece of the puzzle left is offensive line. Just like every other offensive position, the Bulldogs are on firm ground here. Every starter returns except one, and all returning players are seniors with two or more years of starting experience.

Defense

Arnett is a defense guy. With him stepping out of the defensive coordinator role and into the head coaching spot, the Bulldogs’ defense will be a point of emphasis.

The success starts up front on the line, an experienced group with Jaden Crumedy, Nathan Pickering and Jordan Davis that should make it hard on opponents’ run game. Then there’s linebackers Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson, the top returning tacklers.

The Bulldogs were near the top in the SEC in rushing defense (135 yards per game) but there is no reason that number can’t inch closer to the top three this season. All the parts are there, the Bulldogs just have to execute.

The pass defense was decent last year (210 yards per game) but several newcomers have to jump into the fire this year. Decamerion Richardson is the most experienced player in the secondary.

Schedule

The Alabama-Mississippi State game normally falls toward the back end of the schedule, but this year it’s the fifth game.

The Bulldogs’ games leading up to the matchup with Alabama in Starkville aren’t easy either. A non-conference matchup with Arizona is followed by SEC opponents LSU and South Carolina. All those games are difficult, but winnable, too.

The rest of the schedule has more winnable games with non-conference games against Western Michigan, Southern Miss and Southeastern Louisiana. The Bulldogs have Kentucky and Ole Miss at home and difficult road games with Arkansas, Texas A&M and Auburn.

Outlook

The 2022 Bulldogs made big strides overall with a 9-4 record. Anything below that mark for 2023 is a failure, considering the amount of talent returning this season. Yes, there is a new coach at the helm, but Arnett is someone the team is familiar with and they know what to expect.

The game with Alabama is going to be tough, but it should be more competitive than the previous games against a Saban-coached Crimson Tide. The key for Mississippi State is to stop the run game and get off the field on third down. Offensively, Mississippi State has to find and keep its rhythm. That starts with the run game. There’s no need for a dominant run game, just a consistent one that doesn’t go backwards.

Prediction

Alabama 28, Mississippi State 17

Alabama at Mississippi State

The Crimson Tide will be riding a 15-game winning streak against the Bulldogs when it returns to Starkville at the end of September. 

The Game

Date: Sept. 30

Time: TBD

TV: TBD

Location: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field (61,337)

Series: 85-18-3

Last meeting: The No. 24 Bulldogs managed to shut down the Alabama running game, which totaled just 29 yards on 27 attempts, but Bryce Young completed 21 of 35 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns to lead the 30-6 victory. No one knew it at the time, but it was the final meetings with MSU head coach Mike Leach, who passed away in December.

Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Mike Leach waves to fans after the Bulldogs beat the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. 

John Reed / USA Today Sports

The Team

The Coach: Zach Arnett (first year, 1-0)

Offensive Coordinator: Kavin Barbay

Defensive Coordinator: Matt Brock

2022 Record: 9-4 (4-4 SEC)

2022 Rankings: Total offense No. 62; Total defense No. 35

Returning Starters: 12, eight on offense, four on defense

Players to Watch: LB Nathaniel Watson, LB Jett Johnson, QB Will Rogers, G Cole Smith, DE Jaden Crumedy, KR Lideatrick Griffin, PR Zavion Thomas, RB Jo'Quavious Marks.

Top Newcomer: The guess here is that it will be someone in the secondary, but your guess is as good as anyone's as for who it will be. The Bulldogs have one returning starter with many of the next-up candidates (including former Alabama defensive back Marcus Banks) trying to hold off three transfers from Power-5 schools and some true freshmen who keyed the last recruiting class. Names to follow include Hunter Washington (Florida State) and Jordan Morant (Michigan) and true freshmen Isaac Smith and Kelly Jones.

Biggest Question: The Bulldogs were all about the Air Raid offense under Mike Leach, but new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay has brought in a new system even though there's eight returning starters including quarterback Will Rogers. However, he ran a big-play offense at Appalachian State while averaging 204.2 yards per game on the ground. It's one of the reasons why we listed Marks as a player to watch.

Photo | Gary Cosby Jr/The Tuscaloosa News via USA TODAY Sports

The School

Location: Starkville, Miss.

Founded: 1878

Enrollment: 23,000

Nickname: Bulldogs

Colors: Maroon and White

Mascot: Bully the Bulldog

The Program

Coaching Changes During Saban Era: Four

Last Time Beat Alabama: 2007, 17-12. Sylvester Croom was the coach of the Bulldogs.

Last Time Won Division: 1998

Last Time Won SEC Championship: 1941

National Championships: None

Playoff Appearances: None

SEC Championships: 1, 1941

Bowl Appearances: 15-11

Last Time Didn’t Play in a Bowl: 2009

Heisman Trophies: None

Consensus All-Americans During Saban Era: 2, Fred Smoot, DB, 2000; Emmanuel Forbes, CB, 2022

First-Round NFL Picks During Saban Era: 7, including T Charles Cross in the 2022 NFL Draft (ninth overall by the Seahawks) and CB Emmanuel Forbes (16th by the Commanders) in 2023.

2022 NFL Draft: Two players selected, Forbes and DT Cameron Young in the fourth round by the Seahawks.

Last Four Recruiting Class Rankings: No. 27 in 2023. Was No. 27 in 2022, No. 26 in 2021, and No. 28 in 2000.

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

The Schedule

Sept. 2: SE Louisiana
Sept. 9: Arizona
Sept. 16: LSU
Sept. 23: at South Carolina
Sept. 30: Alabama
Oct. 7: Western Michigan
Oct. 21: at Arkansas
Oct. 28: at Auburn
Nov. 4: Kentucky
Nov. 11: at Texas A&M
Nov. 18: Southern Miss
Nov. 23: Ole Miss

Did You Know?

One of the biggest problems that the new coaching staff inherited, and had to find a quick solution for, was the new offensive system required tight ends and the Bulldogs didn't have any last season. As in zero. It wasn't that Mike Leach was against playing the position, he just didn't see the point if the player wasn't a clear mismatch, otherwise you're probably using a third-string guard who has no business playing the position.

He was once quoted as saying: “Tight ends are a blast if you have them. If you have a true tight end, and I mean a true tight end, then life is good. God didn’t make very many true tight ends. Just go to the mall and the big long-armed guys you see at the mall, you’ll see a couple, but most of them can’t run fast and those that can probably can’t catch. So there’s not very many of them."

So what did Mississippi State do?

Ty Copper moved over from linebacker, Jacarius Clayton from the defensive line, and Antonio Harmon switched from wide receiver. Ryland Goede transferred from Georgia, Nick Lauderdale came in from Hinds Community College, but the starter is expected to be Geor'Quarius Spivey. He spent the last two seasons at TCU, after transferring from Mississippi State, where during the 2019 and 2020 seasons had 14 catches for 153 yards.

This is the college football definition of a career going full circle. 

This is the fifth story in series previewing Alabama's opponents:

Middle Tennessee

Texas 

at South Florida

Ole Miss