Alabama Football's SEC Championship and Postseason Scenario

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Updated Friday at 10:30 p.m. CT: The Texas Longhorns defeated the Texas A&M Aggies 27-17, meaning the Georgia Bulldogs have officially qualified for the SEC Championship game. Georgia will play Alabama if the Crimson Tide win the Iron Bowl, but will play Ole Miss if Auburn is able to upset Alabama in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
No. 10 Alabama enters Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday with everything to play for. The Crimson Tide is 9-2 (7-1) on the season and hopes to return to the College Football Playoff after missing out on the post season a year ago.
The Ole Miss Rebels won their Black Friday matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs 38-19, finishing the regular season 11-1, with the only loss coming to the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens. The Rebels now sit and wait as they watch Texas A&M on Friday night and Alabama on Saturday night to determine if they'll play in their program's first SEC Championship game.
Alabama's SEC Championship scenario is simple: win in Auburn and go to Atlanta to take on either Texas A&M or Georgia. The Crimson Tide's College Football Playoff hopes rest squarely on the Iron Bowl, as a loss knocks them from the No. 10 position in the playoff rankings to an outside looking in situation. A Crimson Tide victory offers the program an opportunity against No. 4 Texas A&M or No. 5 Georgia, presenting one more game to impress the committee and rise higher in the rankings.
The Georgia Bulldogs concluded conference play two weeks ago with an emphatic victory over No. 16 Texas in Athens. Georgia defeated Charlotte a week ago and Georgia Tech on Black Friday to improve its record to 11-1 as they also wait and watch the Texas-Texas A&M matchup and the Alabama-Auburn matchup.
Texas A&M enters the weekend with a perfect 11-0 record, boasting wins over No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 22 Missouri. The Aggies take on the Texas Longhorns on Black Friday in a win-and-get into the SEC Championship situation. A victory would put the Aggies in their first SEC Championship game since joining the conference in 2012.
SEC Championship Game Scenarios
Alabama-Texas A&M
- Alabama defeats Auburn + Texas A&M defeats Texas
Alabama-Georgia
- Alabama defeats Auburn + Texas A&M loses to Texas
Georgia-Texas A&M
- Texas A&M defeats Texas + Alabama loses to Auburn
Georgia-Ole Miss
- Texas A&M loses to Texas + Alabama loses to Auburn
ESPN Matchup Predictor
- Texas has a 51.5 percent chance to defeat the Texas A&M Aggies at home. The Longhorns won last season in the first matchup of the rivalry since 2011.
- Alabama has a 73.5 percent chance to defeat the Auburn Tigers on the road. The Crimson Tide is on a 5-game winning streak in the matchup.
This story will be updated
Alabama Crimson Tide On SI

Joe Gaither oversees videos and podcasts for Alabama Crimson Tide On SI/BamaCentral. He began his sports media career in radio in 2019, working for three years in Tuscaloosa covering the University of Alabama and other local high school sports. In 2023 he joined BamaCentral to cover a variety of Crimson Tide sports and recruiting, in addition to hosting the “Joe Gaither Show” podcast. His work has also appeared on the Boston College, Missouri and Vanderbilt web sites.
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