Big 12 championship race: Can Arizona or Texas Tech catch Houston?
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Kelvin Sampson's team appears headed for a second consecutive Big 12 men's basketball championship.
Houston's 62-58 road victory over Arizona on Saturday gave the Cougars a two-game lead over the Wildcats and Texas Tech with six conference games to play. But at least four of those games will present significant challenges for the Cougars.
Can Arizona (17-8, 11-3) or Texas Tech (20-5, 11-3) catch Houston (21-4, 13-1)? It's not out of the question.
Houston's path to Big 12 title
Houston has three games remaining against top-15 teams, starting with next Saturday's home game vs. Iowa State (20-5, 10-4). The Cyclones are the ninth-best team in the country, according to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. That's one spot behind No. 8 Houston.
Iowa State has won three consecutive games, coinciding with the return of forward Milan Momcilovic. A 6-foot-8 sophomore, Momcilovic is averaging 10.2 points and shooting 43.7% from the 3-point line. His ability to space the floor and knock down 3-pointers is a huge advantage for the Cyclones.
A little over 48 hours after hosting Iowa State, the Cougars have to turn around and travel to Lubbock to face Texas Tech, the 13th-best team in the country according to the selection committee. The Red Raiders beat Houston 82-81 in overtime on Feb. 1.
Houston closes its Big 12 schedule with a home game vs. Kansas on March 3 and a road game at Baylor on March 8. The Cougars beat Kansas in double overtime in their first meeting, one of the most improbable victories of the college basketball season. Kansas is ranked 15th in the country according to the NCAA, although the Jayhawks will likely drop after Saturday's loss to Utah.
"We've been very fortunate," Houston coach Kelvin Sampson said after beating Arizona. "I'm still trying to figure out how we won that (Kansas) game. That was a game that things had to go your way, so we got lucky. We've gotten lucky a couple of times."
The Cougars will need a little more "luck" to win another Big 12 title, but with a two-game lead they can afford to stumble at least once. If they stumble twice — and one of those is vs. Texas Tech — watch out.
Texas Tech has best chance to catch Houston
The Red Raiders have a much easier finishing stretch than Houston, and they have the advantage of being 1-0 vs. the Cougars. If Texas Tech can beat the Cougars again on Feb. 24 they'll have the critical head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.
Other than the Houston rematch, the only difficult game remaining on Texas Tech's schedule is a March 1 game at Kansas. The other four games are against teams well outside the top 40 in the NCAA NET Rankings.
If the Red Raiders win their final six games they would finish 17-3 in the Big 12 and have a shot to unseat Houston with the tiebreaker.
Arizona likely eliminated from contention
Arizona still has to play at Baylor, at Iowa State and at Kansas — three of the toughest road venues in the Big 12. Even if they manage to go 2-1 in those games — and win the other three — the Wildcats would finish 16-4 in the Big 12.
Houston would have to go 3-3 over its final six games to finish 16-4, which is unlikely. But even if they do, the Cougars hold the tiebreaker advantage over Arizona.
We'll learn a lot over the next eight days. If Houston manages to beat Iowa State on Saturday and Texas Tech on Feb. 24, it will likely lock up another Big 12 title for the Cougars.
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-029877d49238355bd3388a94f90e3c72.jpg "Ben Sherman")
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his 27-year journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. A basketball junkie, March Madness is his favorite time of the year.