How Arizona can beat Duke in NCAA Tournament: 4 keys to victory

Can the Wildcats wear down Cooper Flagg in the Sweet 16?

Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (1) shoots the ball during a practice session in preparation for an East Regional semifinal game against the Duke Blue Devils at Prudential Center. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Of the eight matchups in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16, the Arizona Wildcats are the biggest underdogs.

With Cooper Flagg healthy, Tyrese Proctor shooting the lights out and Maliq Brown expected to return from a shoulder injury, No. 1 seed Duke (33-3) is favored by 9.5 points

But No. 4 seed Arizona (24-12) has a path to victory on Thursday night in Newark, New Jersey. Here are four keys to victory for the Wildcats.

Attack Cooper Flagg

Flagg is a generational talent, but he's barely 18 years old. He has never played in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament, and he has never played 37 high-level games in a single season. Fatigue is real this time of year, especially for younger players.

Flagg is a three-level scorer with very few weaknesses in his game. In the games where he has struggled this season — like his 6-of-17 shooting performance in Duke's 77-71 loss to Clemson — he has been a liability on defense. Clemson repeatedly attacked him on the perimeter, getting open looks off dribble drives — including the game-winning layup where Chase Hunter blew by Flagg on a hesitation move.

chase hunter; duke vs clemson pic.twitter.com/dyvrOtUlA2

— ◇ (@H00DH3R0) February 9, 2025

Whether it's KJ Lewis, Caleb Love, Tobe Awaka or Trey Townsend, the Wildcats need to go after Flagg when he's on defense and try to wear him down.

Caleb Love needs to lead the way

Love is playing the best basketball of his career at the right time, and as Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd said after Arizona's second-round win over Oregon, he's still just scratching the surface of his potential.

Love had 29 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists in Arizona's 87-83 win over Oregon in the second round, and he took over in the big moments. He needs to have a similar performance vs. Duke — not necessarily with his shooting, but with his defense, playmaking and leadership.

"We've had a lot of conversations, and Caleb has so much potential and he's so good already.. What's cool is how much better he can get," Lloyd said after Arizona beat Oregon. "And his approach (vs. Oregon), just staying steady and staying unemotional. ... I was just really proud of how he came out and played in that moment. It just says so much to me about his development as a player and a person, and he was obviously the best player on the floor, and he was able to carry us to victory."

Make Proctor and Knueppel put the ball on the floor

It's easier said than done when facing a team as talented as Duke, but the Wildcats need to stick to Proctor and Kom Knueppel and turn them into drivers. The Blue Devils are at their best when they're playing inside-out to their shooters, and Proctor and Knueppel are arguably the best perimeter shooting duo in the country.

Proctor is on a historic heater: he's 13-of-16 from downtown in the NCAA Tournament. He's shooting 41.5% from 3 on the season, and the Wildcats cannot let him get going on Thursday night. Knueppel has cooled off over the last month — he's shooting 39.3% from downtown for the season — but he's still one of the best shooters in the country, and at 6-foot-7 he can get his shot off against smaller defenders.

Henri Veesaar is the 'X-factor'

Redshirt sophomore Henri Veesaar gives Arizona an element they didn't have earlier this season. A 7-footer with 3-point range, Veesaar can pull 7-foot-2 Duke center Khaman Maluach away from the basket, where he's a highly effective rim protector.

If Veesaar can knock down an early 3-pointer, it will open up the paint for Jaden Bradley, Love and Lewis to get downhill on Duke. Veesaar, who averages 9.3 points per game, torched Kansas big man Hunter Dickinson for 19 points (2-of-3 from downtown) in Arizona's 88-77 win over the Jayhawks in the Big 12 Tournament. He needs to have a similar performance for Arizona to beat Duke on Thursday night.