Predicting Arizona State football's win total
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In their first season in the Big 12, the Arizona State Sun Devils have literally come from the bottom of the heap to put themselves in contention for at least a top-eight finish in the 16-team conference.
Picked to finish last in the preseason Big 12 football media poll, the Sun Devils are 5-1 with a huge road game at Cincinnati (4-2) looming on Saturday.
Arizona State football coach Kenny Dillingham knows how challenging the matchup with the Bearcats will be. Beating a talented team like Cincinnati is hard enough. After factoring in the travel circumstances - 1,550 air miles, traveling through three time zones, a 9 a.m. MST kickoff - the degree of difficulty increases significantly.
"If you look at right now in college football, traveling three time zones and the win percentage, like I told our guys, is very, very, very low," said Dillingham in his Monday press conference.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Sun Devils a 38.3% chance of beating the Bearcats, and the oddsmakers now have ASU as 5.5-point underdogs.
A win over Cincinnati would make Arizona State bowl eligible, and the latest bowl projections from CBS Sports have ASU slotted for the Sun Bowl vs. Syracuse.
Bowl eligibility would be a huge step forward for Dillingham's program, but obviously the Sun Devils want more. So what's a realistic prediction for ASU's win total? Here are game-by-game predictions for the final six games of the regular season:
Oct. 19: Arizona State at Cincinnati, 9 a.m. MST
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 38.3% chance of victory
- Betting odds: Cincinnati favored by 5.5 points
- Our prediction: Cincinnati 28, Arizona State 24
Nov. 2: Arizona State at Oklahoma State, time TBD
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 46.6% chance of victory
- Our prediction: Arizona State 41, Oklahoma State 33
Nov. 9: UCF at Arizona State, time TBD
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 62% chance of victory
- Our prediction: Arizona State 35, UCF 30
Nov. 16: Arizona State at Kansas State, time TBD
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 23.7% chance of victory
- Our prediction: Kansas State 30, Arizona State 24
Nov. 23: BYU at Arizona State, time TBD
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 49% chance of victory
- Our prediction: BYU 32, Arizona State 31
Nov. 30: Arizona State at Arizona, time TBD
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 54.7% chance of victory
- Our prediction: Arizona State 38, Arizona 31
Going 3-3 over the final six games would put the Sun Devils at 8-4 overall and 5-4 in the Big 12, a remarkable turnaround from last season's 3-9 record. As Dillingham has noted many times, the margins are slim in the Big 12 - a handful of plays either way could result in a 6-6 or 10-2 record. We'll see how it plays out.
More Arizona State & Big 12 Analysis
-66e6aeb5014b4c4eeac84ca997f034c9.jpg "Ben Sherman")
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his 27-year journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. A basketball junkie, March Madness is his favorite time of the year.
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