Explaining Why Arizona State's Tournament Hopes are Hanging by Thread

The Sun Devils are in a precarious position over the final 12 games of conference play.

Jan 10, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Bobby Hurley in the huddle with his players against the Kansas State Wildcats in the first half at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

TEMPE -- The 2025-26 Arizona State Sun Devils are at an injunction point, as the team stands at just 10-9 with seven losses in their last eight games casting a cloud over the promising start to the year.

Head coach Bobby Hurley had alluded to the fact that he felt as if the team was no longer responding to his coaching - ultimately forming a general feeling of hopelessness during his post-game press conference following the loss to West Virginia on Wednesday.

While there is still a chance that the campaign gets revived, time is at a premiun now - Arizona State on SI explores the current standing that the program faces with roughly seven weeks left in the regular season.

Jan 21, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard Maurice Odum (5) against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the second half at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Arizona State Faces Bleak Tournament Future

ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi - along with other respected bracket experts - do not have the Sun Devils anywhere near the field at the moment.

While the team has secured a trio of fairly strong wins over Texas, Oklahoma, and Santa Clara, the full scope of quality from the first two of the wins are currently in flux, as they struggle in SEC play.

Arizona State also simply doesn't currently profile as an NCAA tournament squad, as they are currently 93rd in the official NCAA NET rankings - which is the metric that's most closely followed when selecting at-large teams. The lowest ranked at-large selection since 2019 was Rutgers, who was ranked 78th in the 2021-22 campaign.

The Sun Devils also rank 144th in defensive rating according to analytics site KenPom, which is certainly an unacceptable spot for a typical tournament squad. The upcoming schedule doesn't do many favors to the team, either - this will be touched upon below.

Jan 21, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils center Massamba Diop (35) slam dunks the ball against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the first half at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Arizona State's Schedule Remains Brutal

Arizona State is set to take on a surprisingly quality UCF Knights squad on the road on Tuesday before returning home next Saturday against the top-ranked Arizona Wildcats in what is a return trip from the 89-82 loss just over one week ago.

The Sun Devils are also going to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Kansas Jayhawks as home, while also finishing the regular season slate with a road contest against the Iowa State Cyclones.

There are points of the schedule in which the team has the ability to stack victories, but the path to approaching 20 victories narrows the longer they go without actually winning toss-up contests.

Read more on why the Arizona State men's basketball team will exceed expectations in the 2025-26 season here, and on why the bright future of the football program isn’t dimmed by the loss to Arizona here.

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