Arizona State Behind Enemy Lines: Baylor Review

TEMPE -- Arizona State is officially set on preparing for a massive Big 12 conference opener against the Baylor Bears this coming Saturday, following a wire-to-wire victory over Texas State in week three.

The matchup is set to feature two high-octane offenses headlined by Sam Leavitt and Sawyer Robertson - the pair of teams also face their own share of concerns heading into week four.

Arizona State on SI caught up with Baylor on SI beat writer Josh Crawford to discuss the game that is to be in Waco - major thanks to Josh for taking time to answer some questions from the perspective of the Bears' program.

1. What is morale like in Waco currently? The loss to Auburn was obviously a bit deflating, but two major bounce-back wins followed. Does the program feel confident that it can defeat ASU on Saturday and position itself to compete for the Big 12?

Coming into the season, there was a sense of Baylor's first 4 games, really 3 of the first 4 with respect to Sanford, determined the season outlook. Most people saw that for Baylor to position themselves for a Big 12 title and a playoff birth, needed to win 2 of the 3 games between Auburn, SMU, and ASU, with SMU being seen as the toughest, a ranked opponent on the road.

The Auburn loss was concerning, and trends from that game have continued to be concerning, but that SMU game, even in Week 2, saved the season to an extent. Now, coming off handling their business versus Sanford, and one of only two ranked wins in the conference (arguably the best win so far), there is some optimism that Baylor can knock off Arizona State, between the home crowd, Sawyer Robertson's hot start, and ASU's loss in Starkville.

2. What is the root cause of the defense underperforming this season in your eyes? Is it the personnel not living up to expectations, subpar coaching, being the victim of less-than-optimal matchups or a mix of all?

Unfortunately, run defense has been a problem for most, if not all, of the six years that Dave Aranda has been at the helm, particularly when you consider he's a former defensive coordinator and linebackers coach.

Jackie Marshall, their best defensive lineman by far, suffered a high ankle sprain in the first quarter vs. Auburn, so he's slowly been getting back to 100%, with 6 snaps vs. SMU and 16 last week. If he's closer to 100% than not, that's a big boost to their run defense.

In the secondary, it simply hasn't been enough. Ohio State transfer Calvin Simpson-Hunt hasn't been super impactful yet, and starting corners Tevin Williams and Levar Thornton were inconsistent versus SMU. Senior safety Carl Williams getting healthy would be a big boost to this secondary, but there was hope in preseason that both the run defense and secondary would be better, and that hasn't happened yet.

3. What do you believe to be the single biggest area of improvement that has come from Sawyer Robertson this season? How do you believe he can/will exploit a talented Sun Devil defense?

I think the biggest jump from last year to this for Sawyer has been intangibles, specifically the poise and command of the offense. He got beat out by De'Quan Finn last year before Finn's ineffective play through two weeks, so, this year, with a full spring and summer knowing he's QB1, I just think there's so much confidence and synergy between him and OC Jake Spavital.

He threw the ball 48 and 50 times, respectively, against Auburn and SMU, which would have been his highest regular season total (he threw 51 times against LSU in the bowl game). Now, he was coming from behind in both those, but, he’s really opened up in Year 2 at the helm, and I think if ASU's secondary isn't ready for the volume of throws they'll be tested with, at all three levels of the field, they could be in for a long day.

4. Name one player on offense and defense that are likely to be x-factors in the game.

Offensively, Michael Trigg for sure. Like you mentioned, he's a physical mismatch for linebackers and corners, and even safeties. He injured his shoulder versus SMU, and only reeled in 2 catches vs. Samford, but he got a whopping 16 targets for 7 catches and TD vs. Auburn.

He's a NFL tight end, and could be Sawyer's go-to to move the chains in "gotta have it" situations if he's close to 100%. Defensively, I'd say Matthew Fobbs-White. Last year, Baylor lacked pass rush pop, so they brought in two transfers, Emar'rion Winston from Oregon, and Matthew-Fobbs White from Tulane.

Both Winston and Fobbs-White handled Kevin Jennings well and corralled for the most part in that SMU game, but White, he's the pass rush specialist, the guy with the speed and athleticism off the edge that could cause real problems off the edge if he can go going.

5. How vital is this game to the Baylor program after a few years of up-and-down results following a Big 12 title in 2021. Does a loss potentially set up uncomfortable conversations surrounding Dave Aranda?

I think that SMU win cooled off Dave Aranda's potentially hot seat, at least temporarily, but if this teams wins at least at games, with their only loss to a ranked Auburn team, and two conference opponents, nobody will be calling for his head. Now, if this defense continues to look as bad as it did against Auburn, you lose big at home to Arizona State, and you lose some games in conference you aren't supposed to, then things can change quickly. So I'd say, getting a win on Saturday, would almost certainly secure Dave Aranda's job security, at least through this season, with how he's recruited.

6. What aspect of the Arizona State team will be the most poignant challenge for Baylor at the surface?

The run game! Even in a loss, ASU piled up over 250 yards rushing, with two separate 100-yard backs, and that is a major concern for Baylor. Even if Leavitt doesn't play his best, if Baylor gets gashed in the run game like ASU could do to, he won't have too and Arizona State could still win. This isn't going to be a 17-14 type of game. Also, Clayton Smith and C.J. Fite could pose real issues to a Baylor offensive line that got pushed around vs. Auburn

7. Game Prediction - score and brief rationale!

I've been a homer the first three weeks, so I'll break the trend and hope to be wrong. I see no conceivable way this Baylor secondary can cover Jordyn Tyson, this is one of the few games of the year I think the QB matchup doesn't favor Baylor, and, I can see this run game, with the stable of backs that ASU has, being a real problem for this Baylor defense. 35-31 Arizona State.

Read more on major takeaways from players discussing the victory over Texas State in the post-game press conference here, and on how Arizona State fans should be feeling about the team heading into Big 12 play here.

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