Key Metric Projects Arizona State's Upcoming Big 12 Fate

TEMPE -- Bobby Hurley's Arizona State Sun Devils are just over a week away from opening Big 12 play after starting the 2025-26 campaign with a 9-4 record.

Arizona State on SI explores the chance that ESPN's BPI metric gives them to win all 18 league games below, with explanations and a projected final record based on the projections.

January 3 vs. Colorado: 59.1% Chance to Win

Arizona State is reeling after two consecutive losses, but are currently well-positioned to secure a quality home win over a Colorado team that has overachieved to this point of the season.

January 7 @ BYU: 5.7% Chance to Win

BYU's home court advantage is one of the best in the country - with AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders, and Robert Wright III comprising a potent offense that has resulted in a top-10 ranking heading into 2026.

lknnk — ASU Sun Devils guard Bryce Ford (4) drives past Oklahoma Sooners guard Nijel Pack (9) at Mortgage Matchup Center on Dec. 6, 2025, in Phoenix, Arizona. | Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

January 10 vs. Kansas State: 41.3% Chance to Win

Kansas State has been revitalized in recent weeks behind the efforts of senior P.J. Haggerty, who averaged 22.8 PPG through non-conference play.

January 14 @ Arizona: 3.1% Chance to Win

McHale Center is one of the toughest places to play at in all of college basketball, possess one of the most dynamic offenses in division one, and Arizona State has only won in Tucson five times since the turn of the century. This doesn't bode well for ASU.

lln; — Mar 4, 2025; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd shakes hands with Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Bobby Hurley at the end of the game at McKale Center. Mandatory Credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images | Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

January 18 @ Houston: 3.6% Chance to Win

Houston's offensive upside has shown in recent games behind a dynamic backcourt duo, and they continue to look like a national title contender despite some close calls against inferior competition.

January 21 vs. West Virginia: 31.8% Chance to Win

West Virginia is the third-lowest team in the Big 12, as they are 95th in NCAA NET rankings - this would be a game that would be in ASU's best interest to win.

January 24 vs. Cincinnati: 45.5% Chance to Win

Cincinnati is ranked 108 in NET as well - although freshman Shon Abaev has been a bright spot on this squad.

January 27 @ UCF: 19.8% Chance to Win

UCF is one of the sneakiest teams in all of college basketball at the moment, as they sit at 33 in NET - posting an 11-1 record behind four players averaging double digit scoring figures.

January 31 vs. Arizona: 8.5% Chance to Win

The Sun Devils are given a slightly better chance to steal the return game against Arizona, although the Wildcats' non-conference success paint them as one of the best teams in the nation. A win in Tempe will still be an uphill climb.

dqwd — Arizona State Sun Devils guard Alonzo Verge Jr. (11) dunks the ball against the Arizona Wildcats on Jan. 25, 2020 at Desert Financial Arena in Tempe, AZ. (Brady Klain/The Republic) Cent02 790e6ki07ets50rffrw Original | Brady Klain/The Republic, Arizona Republic via Imagn Content Services, LLC

February 4 @ Utah: 39.5% Chance to Win

Utah is the team that Arizona State truly must avoid losing to in conference play, as they are currently ranked 139 in NET.

February 7 @ Colorado: 33.2% Chance to Win

Arizona State's favorability of winning the return trip to Colorado drops significantly due to numerous factors, including the implied challenges of playing in higher altitude.

February 10 vs. Oklahoma State: 54.0% Chance to Win

Steve Lutz's Oklahoma State Cowboys currently project as a fellow NCAA tournament bubble team - this is another strong opportunity to pick up a quality win for ASU.

February 17 vs. Texas Tech: 25.7% Chance to Win

This might be the best opportunity for Arizona State to pick up a marquee win this season, although Texas Tech's win over Duke last weekend is a showcase of what they have the ability to be at their peak.

knnl — Mar 8, 2025; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Bobby Hurley talks to Arizona State Sun Devils center Shawn Phillips Jr. (9) during the second half at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images | Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

February 21 @ Baylor: 11.4% Chance to Win

Baylor has struggled a bit relative to expectations this season, although freshman Tounde Yessoufou has been exceptional thus far.

February 24 @ TCU: 23.4% Chance to Win

TCU will be a more challenging opponent than expected - a trademark of the Jamie Dixon era in Fort Worth.

February 28 vs. Utah: 65.5% Chance to Win

Arizona State must win this game. There's no sidestepping this fact.

March 3 vs. Kansas: 17.9% Chance to Win

The Sun Devils will get another chance at a season-defining win against Darryn Peterson and the Jayhawks - will Hurley get it done again?

March 7 @ Iowa State: 3.7% Chance to Win

Iowa State appears to be a juggernaut yet again this season. The game will be even more difficult being played at Hilton Colliseum.

Final Projected Record: 12-19 (3-15 Big 12)

This ultimate projection feels to be harsh on the Sun Devils, but it will be up to them to silence the doubters once again in what will be a challening 18-game stretch.

Read more on why the Arizona State men's basketball team will exceed expectations in the 2025-26 season here, and on why the bright future of the football program isn’t dimmed by the loss to Arizona here.

dwddwd — Arizona State Sun Devils Moe Odum (5) looks at the net before taking a shot during a game against the Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Desert Financial Arena in Tempe on Nov. 4, 2025. | Diannie Chavez/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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