Does Arizona State Have Clear Path to Big 12 Title?

TEMPE -- Arizona State went from seen as one of the major disappointments of the 2025 season to right back into the mix in the College Football Playoff race in just a week of real time.

The 26-22 victory over Texas Tech wasn't foreseen by many, but the sudden re-emergence as a contender in the Big 12 has been welcomed by many.

Max Olson of ESPN mentioned the Sun Devils as a legitimate threat to take the Big 12 crown once again - pointing to the fact that the remainder of the schedule is reasonably favorable.

"Arizona State gets Houston and Iowa State up next. Coach Kenny Dillingham has to like how the rest of the schedule sets up for the Sun Devils if they can keep Sam Leavitt, Jordyn Tyson, Prince Dorbah and the rest of their stars healthy. Houston is the 6-1 team that nobody saw coming. The Cougars' lone loss was to Texas Tech, and they can make a major statement this week with an upset in Tempe."

Although the final five games appear to be favorable at the surface, the health of the roster is paramount to the team moving forward, and not every metric or pundit is sold by the 5-2 start to the season.

What Is Arizona State's Path Forward?

Arizona State has a 71.9% chance to defeat Houston, 35.1% chance to knock off Iowa State, 89.7% chance to topple West Virginia, 49.7% chance to take down Colorado, and a 61.9% chance to keep the Territorial Cup against rival Arizona per ESPN's FPI.

The metric effectively projects that Arizona State will win eight games this season - going 6-3 in conference play. This would not be enough to make it back to the Big 12 title game despite the defined efforts.

Metrics tend to be quite a bit lower on Arizona State compared to the consensus - with reasonings such as 'luck-based scaling' being at the forefront of those conversations and verdicts.

What metrics can't account for is Arizona State's undeniable ability to win games when in crunch time. There's a point when the sample of winning close games becomes skill rather than luck, and the Sun Devils should be commended for continuing to win games despite being depleted by injuries from the opening game of the season on.

The path to the Big 12 title game won't be a seamless one, but the Sun Devils have a clear opportunity to push forward with relatively favorable matchups on the docket.

Read more on why the Arizona State men's basketball team will exceed expectations in the 2025-26 season here, and on three major takeaways from the win over Texas Tech here.

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