Re-Evaluating Arizona State's NCAA Tournament Case

The Sun Devils remain in position to return to the tournament for the first time in three seasons despite a rough loss on December 21.

Mar 11, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils coach Bobby Hurley reacts to a play during the first half against the Kansas State Wildcats at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

TEMPE -- Bobby Hurley's Arizona State Sun Devils are just days away from entering Big 12 play after a largely fruitful non-conference slate took a sour turn at the closure of the schedule.

Arizona State lost the last two ramp-up games leading into their second season of membership in a new conference - the losses have dampened ambitions of reaching the NCAA tournament for the first time since the 2022-23 season, but still have designs of working their way back into the "big dance" behind a balanced offensive attack and strong coaching.

ASU Sun Devils center Massamba Diop (35) sits on the bench before their game against the Georgia State Panthers at Desert Financial Arena on Nov. 17, 2025. | Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Sun Devils Remain on Bubble

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi still has Arizona State as a bubble squad as of Tuesday morning - more specifically in the "next four out", joining Virginia Tech, Creighton, and TCU.

The Sun Devils were previously in the field prior to the loss to Oregon State, but the defeat continues to be a quadrant four loss that will harm them moving forward - unless the Beavers continue to boost their profile in the months ahead.

The Sun Devils currently slide in at number 78 in the official NCAA NET rankings as of Tuesday morning. The lowest-ranked team in NET to make the NCAA tournament as an at-large selection is Rutgers in 2022 - the Scarlet Knights reached the event ranked number 77.

Typically, the lowest ranked teams to reach the tournament as an at-large are ranked between 60 and 65, so Arizona State still has work to do to get back into that range, while also being in a position that they must avoid another catastrophic loss.

Nov 26, 2025; Lahaina, HI, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard Anthony Johnson (2) and USC Trojans guard Chad Baker-Mazara (4) fight for a loose ball during the first half of the championship match at Lahaina Civic Center. Mandatory Credit: Marco Garcia-Imagn Images | Marco Garcia-Imagn Images

Analytics site Teamrankings currently gives Arizona State a 14% chance to reach the tournament, although reaching the 18 or 19 win threshold to have a real shot to make it doesn't seem unattainable.

Numerous Opportunities Await For Arizona State

One thing that is a certaintly is that Hurley's squad will have no shortage of chances to build up a catalogue worthy of being selected to the tournament.

The Sun Devils are slated to face fellow bubble teams in Baylor and Oklahoma State in Big 12 play, while they boast a convincing win over "last team in" Oklahoma in non-conference play.

Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, BYU, Texas Tech, and Kansas are all within the top five seed lines, setting up the 2025-26 Big 12 to be one of the most top-heavy leagues in the history of college basketball - the challenge Hurley has in front of him is all too real.

Read more on why the Arizona State men's basketball team will exceed expectations in the 2025-26 season here, and on why the bright future of the football program isn’t dimmed by the loss to Arizona here.

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