Examining Arizona State's Revived Tournament Hopes After Upset Win

The Sun Devils now have a definite path to reaching the tournament for the first time in three years.

Jan 31, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils center Massamba Diop (35) against the Arizona Wildcats in the first half at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

TEMPE -- Bobby Hurley is prepared for wherever the road takes the Arizona State Sun Devils (14-12, 5-8 Big 12) over the last five games of the regular season and beyond - that much is sure.

This comes in the wake of the Sun Devils securing their first win streak in Big 12 conference play by taking down #13 Texas Tech in Tempe on Tuesday night.

The victory has lent Arizona State new life heading into the final stretch of the season, although more work must be done to achieve the ultimate goal.

Jan 31, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Bobby Hurley with guard Maurice Odum (5) against the Arizona Wildcats at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Arizona State Remains Tournament Longshot, but Have Path

Arizona State remains a "long shot" to reach the NCAA tournament this season according to ESPN's bubble watch, although the two wins over the last week have revived hopes that this goal can be achieved.

The Sun Devils currently rank 68th in NCAA NET rankings as of Wednesday morning, as well as 65th in KenPom, which continues the effort of posturing the team of being tournament caliber, as most of the weaker at-large selections have metrics in this range.

The "good news" in the current race for a selection to the 68-team field is that the metrics are matched with a solid resume - the Sun Devils have three objectively quality wins (Texas, Santa Clara, Texas Tech), with at least two more that can be peddled as impressive (Oklahoma State, Hawaii on the road), while Oregon State is the lone bad loss on the season.

Arizona State guard Moe Odum (5) shoots a three against Cincinnati guard Jizzle James (2) during a game at Desert Financial Arena in Tempe, Ariz., on Jan. 24, 2026. | Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The bad news? Arizona State needs to increase their win total, and opportunities to do just that are dwindling. Popular metrics site TeamRankings currently give the program an 11% chance to be selected to the bracket - with those chances increasing to 54.8% with 18 wins and 95.4% with 19.

ASU's Path(s) to 18/19 Wins

The clearest road is simple - win three of the last five games in the regular season, then win either one or two games in the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City.

Win four of the last five games (receive a higher tournament seed), then win a singular conference tournament game. Four of five wins (defeating Kansas or Iowa State) has potential to suffice, but 19 wins seems to be the ultimate goal.

The most unlikely path is to make a run to the Big 12 title and earn the automatic bid to the tournament. This would very likely require five wins in five days or four wins in four days.

Read more on the bold strategy that head coach Bobby Hurley employed with comments on 1/21 here, and on why Arizona State may have saved the season with the win over Cincinnati on Saturday here..

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