While media great at picking SEC, national Top 5, Hogs remain enigma

Fans should ignore media poll when it comes to where Arkansas will finish in conference

Arkansas running back AJ Green scores a touchdown against Texas A&M in the Southwest Classic at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. | Nelson Chenault – USA TODAY Sports

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — While the preseason SEC media poll has been highly accurate and the AP preseason poll has done a good job of getting most of the Top 5 correct over the past five seasons, Arkansas has proven to be an enigma to the media.

No matter where they guess, even with most of that time being in the age of conference divisions, thus making it much easier to predict, the SEC media poll has only once gotten within one spot above or below where the Razorbacks actually finished. In 2020, back when despite COVID forcing the SEC to play a conference-only schedule the college football scene was much more stable, the media nailed it.

Arkansas was picked No. 7 in the SEC West and the Hogs technically did finish in last place, tied with Mississippi State with three SEC wins. However, one of those wins was over the Bulldogs, so the tiebreaker puts the Hogs officially at No. 6, still within one spot of their original prediction.

Officially, the media picked eight out of 14 teams perfectly.

2020

SEC East Preseason Poll

1. Florida (53) - 624 (No. 1)
2. Georgia (43) - 613 (No. 2)
3. Tennessee - 434 (No. 5)
4. Kentucky - 405 (No. 4)
5. South Carolina - 287 (No. 6)
6. Missouri - 224 (No. 3)
7. Vanderbilt - 101 (No. 7)

SEC West Preseason Poll

1. Alabama (86) - 660 (No. 1)
2. LSU (8) - 489 (No. 4)
3. Auburn - 488 (No. 3)
4. Texas A&M (2) - 454 (No. 2)
T5. Ole Miss - 238 (No. 5)
T5. Mississippi State - 238 (No. 7)
7. Arkansas - 121 (No. 6)
*Miss. St./Ark. tied for last two spots with Razorbacks winning head-to-head.

As for the national poll, the media picked three of the Top 5 and narrowly missed getting another team in the right range with Oklahoma. Only one team was picked perfectly, but the entire Top 3 finished in the Top 3.

This level of success will show to be a repeating trend.

Overall AP Poll

1. Clemson (No. 3)
2. Ohio State (No. 2)
3. Alabama (No. 1)
4. Georgia (No. 7)
5. Oklahoma (No. 6)

2021

While the one first place vote indicates someone jokingly knew Arkansas was going to make a huge jump in Sam Pittman's second season, no one else did. The Razorbacks finished No. 3 in the SEC West, three spots higher than expected.

The media got four exactly right overall, but the rise of Arkansas and the Mississippi schools with their second-year coaches threw things for a loop in the SEC West.

SEC East Preseason Poll

1. Georgia (124) - 923 (No. 1)
2. Florida (7) - 784 (No. 6)
3. Kentucky (2) - 624 (No. 2)
4. Missouri - 555 (No. 4)
5. Tennessee - 362 (No. 3)
6. South Carolina (1) - 355 (No. 5)
7. Vanderbilt - 149 (No. 7)

SEC West Preseason Poll

1. Alabama (130) - 932 (No. 1)
2. Texas A&M (1) - 760 (No. 5)
3. LSU (1) - 633 (No. 7)
4. Ole Miss (1) - 529 (No. 2)
5. Auburn - 440 (No. 6)
6. Arkansas (1) - 241 (No. 3)
7. Mississippi State - 217 (No. 4)

Where things got a little chaotic was on the national scene. Alabama and Georgia did their part, but no one saw Oklahoma and Clemson falling off so hard.

This is the year Cincinnati and Baylor ended up in the Top 5 with the Bearcats making the playoffs. This was by far the worst season for predicting national finishes over the five-year period being covered.

Overall AP Poll

1. Alabama (No. 2)
2. Oklahoma (No. 10)
3. Clemson (No. 14)
4. Ohio State (No. 6)
5. Georgia (No. 1)

2022

Things followed in lock step with the previous season as far as the SEC media poll went. Once again, four schools were picked perfectly, and once again, Arkansas and Mississippi State were responsible the lack of accuracy in the SEC West.

People began to believe in KJ Jefferson and the Razorbacks offense while there wasn't enough respect for Mike Leach and his pirate ways down in Starkville. Locker room drama ultimately sank what started as a promising season for the Hogs as they dropped to No. 5 in their division.

SEC East Preseason Poll

1. Georgia (172)  - 1254 (No. 1)
2. Kentucky (4) - 932 (No. 4)
3. Tennessee (1) - 929 (No. 2)
4. Florida - 712 (No. 5)
5. South Carolina (3) - 662 (No. 3)
6. Missouri - 383 (No. 6)
7. Vanderbilt (1) - 196 (No. 7)

WEST Preseason Poll

1. Alabama (177) - 1262 (No. 2)
2. Texas A&M (3) - 968 (No. 7)
3. Arkansas (1) - 844 (No. 5)
4. Ole Miss - 675 (No. 4)
5. LSU - 591 (No. 1)
6. Mississippi State - 390 (No. 3)
7. Auburn - 338 (No. 6)

Overall AP Poll

Nationally, Clemson affirmed its trend of falling way off the national scene. Meanwhile, TCU threw things off by winning multiple close games in dramatic fashion before holding up against Georgia in the national title game similar to how teenagers fare against Jason Vorhees.

Still, the media got three of the Top 5.

1. Alabama (No. 5)
2. Ohio State (No. 4)
3. Georgia (No. 1)
4. Clemson (No. 13)
5. Notre Dame (No. 18)
*This was the year TCU and Michigan made waves.

2023

While the SEC East remains wildly predictable, the media got four of the seven teams placed perfectly, only one SEC West team, Alabama at No. 1, behaved as expected. The drama both among the team and various areas of the coaching staff dropped the Hogs all the way to last place, which no one saw coming.

Ole Miss also unexpectedly continued to climb via NIL funding to second place after the fighting Lane Kiffins posted their way to second place.

SEC East Preseason Poll

1. Georgia (265) - 2011 (No. 1)
2. Tennessee (14) - 1682 (No. 3)
3. South Carolina (3) - 1254 (No. 6)
4. Kentucky (1) - 1204 (No. 4)
5. Florida 911 (No. 5)
6. Missouri 658 (No. 2)
7. Vanderbilt (8) - 428 (No. 7)

SEC West Preseason Poll

1. Alabama (165) - 1899 (No. 1)
2. LSU (117) - 1838 (No. 3)
3. Texas A&M (1) - 1144 (No. 4)
4. Ole Miss - 1128 (No. 2)
5. Arkansas (3) - 958. (No. 7)
6. Auburn (4) - 685 (No. 5)
7. Mississippi State (1) - 496 (No. 6)

Overall AP Poll

For the second year in a row, the media picked three of the Top 5 correct, while getting no team's final finish named correctly. This could be a symptom of the transfer portal and NIL. If the trend continues in 2024, that will almost be certain.

1. Georgia (No. 4)
2. Michigan (No. 1)
3. Ohio State (No. 10)
4. Alabama (No. 5)
5. LSU (No. 12)

2024

This particular year is a little hard to evaluate. If the SEC championship game is the determining factor between first and second place in the conference, then the media nailed it perfectly.

They looked at Georgia and saw a better team than Texas, which was true both in Austin in the regular season and in the championship game. Therefore, kudos to the media for seeing both teams for what they were relative to the SEC.

However, if this is supposed to be a reflection of the final regular season standings and No. 1 doesn't necessarily mean SEC champion, then the top two rankings are flipped. Texas technically won the regular season.

It was always going to be hard to get a large number of teams exactly correct with the end of divisions and also the addition of the two Big 12 schools. In the grand scheme, the media got four schools exactly where they finished since Georgia won the championship, but in certain parts of Texas it will be viewed as only two.

The more curious fact to come out of this is whether Arkansas fans realize the Hogs finished better than five other SEC programs last season.

SEC Preseason Poll

1. Georgia (165) - 3330 (No. 2) *
2. Texas (27) - 3041 (No. 1) *
3. Alabama (12) - 2891 (No. 4)
4. Ole Miss (4) - 2783 (No. 6)
5. LSU (2) - 2322 (No. 5)
6. Missouri - 2240 (No. 7)
7. Tennessee - 2168 (No. 3)
8. Oklahoma - 2022 (No. 14)
9. Texas A&M - 1684 (No. 9)
10. Auburn - 1382 (No. 13)
11. Kentucky - 1371 (No. 15)
12. Florida - 1146 (No. 10)
13. South Carolina (1) - 923 (No. 8)
14. Arkansas - 749 (No. 11)
15. Mississippi State - 623 (No. 16)
16. Vanderbilt (2) - 293 (No. 12)

The expansion to 12 teams in the playoffs didn't do a whole lot to change how the final rankings shook out. The media can still nail three of the Top 5 teams in the country, including two exactly, while barely missing out on getting a fourth Top 5 team correct says not a lot has changed in regard to the haves and have nots of the college football world.

Overall AP Poll

1. Georgia (No. 6)
2. Ohio State (No. 1)
3. Oregon (No. 3)
4. Texas (No. 4)
5. Alabama (No. 17)