Why No. 12 Tennessee should be on upset alert against Arkansas

Trap game or not the Razorbacks have the tools to challenge the Volunteers and repeat 2024's game

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Malachi Singleton (3) celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Volunteers at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Arkansas won 19-14. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Saturday’s game between Arkansas and No. 12 Tennessee has all the markings of being a trap game for the Volunteers.

Tennessee is heavily favored and has a road trip to No. 8 Alabama the following week. Arkansas, meanwhile, is debuting a new interim head coach.

But the Volunteers overlooked the Razorbacks last season and we remember how that turned out. So, they won’t repeat that mistake again in 2025, right?

Frankly, Arkansas doesn’t need the trap game angle to have a chance of upsetting Tennessee.

Here are three reasons why the Volunteers should be on upset alert when the Razorbacks walk on the field at Neyland Stadium.

The “new coach bump”

Arkansas Razorbacks offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino during pregame warmupsregame warmups against the Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Razorback Stadium. | Ted McClenning-allHOGS Images

Football teams who fired their head coach tend to play a lot better in the first game with its interim head coach.

Sometimes its because the players are motivated to play better for a new coach, or because the new coach has a new strategy. Sometimes the interim coach is able to harness the emotions of a team in a way that leads to them playing better.

Ed Orgeron did it twice. In 2013, after taking over for Lane Kiffin at USC, Orgeron led the Trojans to a 20-17 win over No. 5 Stanford. Then, in 2016, Orgeron led LSU to a 42-7 win against Missouri after taking over for Les Miles.

Dabo Swinney’s first win at Clemson was his first as interim coach, a 27-21 win against No. 21 Boston College.

Maybe the most notable example of an interim coach harnessing a team’s emotions was in 2011. Tom Bradley replaced Joe Paterno at Penn State and beat No. 24 Ohio State 20-14 in Columbus.

It happens in the NFL, too. Remember Jeff Saturday, having never coached a game, won his debut as interim head coach for the Indianapolis Colts in 2022?

Taylen Green is still Taylen Green

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) looks to pass in the first quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Having a quarterback like Green always gives an underdog team a chance at an upset victory.

Yes, the stats are good. He has 441 rushing yards with an 8.2 yards per carry and two touchdowns. He’s thrown for 1,398 yards with 12 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 62 completion percentage.

Against now-No. 4 Ole Miss, Green had 115 rushing yards and 305 passing yards and two touchdowns. Even in a blowout loss to then-No. 22 Notre Dame, Green had 289 yards of total offense.

Tennessee has a good defense, but it needed Mississippi State quarterback Blake Shapen to throw an incomplete pass to beat the Bulldogs in overtime.

One area that really helped the Volunteers against Mississippi State was its pass rush. They recorded five sacks in that game, including a strip sack that was returned for a touchdown.

However, Arkansas is better at pass protecting than the Bulldogs. The Razorbacks have allowed only six sacks this season which ranks fourth in the SEC and 30th among FBS teams.

Having a quarterback with Green’s skillset probably helps keep those numbers low, too.

Fourth Downs

Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Malachi Fields (0) dives forward during the third quarter against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Notre Dame won 56-13. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote an article a few weeks ago about the factors that make up a college football upset. One of the factors was being successful on fourth downs.

Arkansas fans may recall the example Connelly provided from 2012 when Louisiana-Monroe defeated Arkansas. The Warhawks converted six fourth downs in the game and converted those conversions into 34 points.

Or there’s another example involving the Razorbacks when, in 2015, Toledo held Arkansas 1-for-3 on fourth down attempts.

And we’ve already covered Petrino’s potential for being more aggressive in going for it on fourth downs.

If that’s the case Saturday in Knoxville, and the Razorbacks win that battle, then there’ll be a big party on the way back home.