What if? The moments that kept Mississippi State from beating Tennessee

Many Mississippi State fans, players and coaches may be asking themselves all similar questions today:

“What if [blank] happened instead of [blank]?”

It’s the “what if” game and can be a dangerous game to play because it only leads down a dark path known as misery.

So, of course, we’re going to play the what if game about Mississippi State’s loss to No. 15 Tennessee.

Before we begin, let’s all understand this game (the "what if" game, not the game against Tennessee because that actually happened) was impossible to play last year. The list of what ifs would be too long to be believable.

So, the fact we’re all sitting around Sunday wondering about what could’ve been is a huge testament to how much better this Mississippi State team is.

That being said, here are the biggest “what if” moments from Saturday’s game that, if there was a different outcome, would’ve changed the entire game.

(Note: Two big “what if” moments – the pick-six and scoop-and-score – have already been covered in a previous story you can read about here. We won’t rehash those in this article.)

What If Moments?

What if Brenen Thompson, Isaac Smith, Albert Reese IV and Kelley Jones don’t leave the game with injuries?

I won’t spend much time on this because we don’t know much, if anything, about any of these injuries. But none of these four important players were on the field in the fourth quarter.

And each of them lends a ton of “what if they were on the field” moments that could’ve changed the game that we could an entirely separate story.

What if there isn’t a holding penalty on Devon Booth’s 62-yard touchdown run?

Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Davon Booth (6) runs with the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers. — Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Davon Booth (6) runs with the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

It’s late in the first quarter, Blake Shapen had just thrown a pick six on the previous possession that put Tennessee up 10-7, and the swing of momentum was on the Volunteers’ sideline.

For the first time in the game, Shapen had enough time to stand in the pocket and throw deep downfield to Brenen Thompson, who had gotten behind the Tennessee secondary.

The ball hit Thompson’s hands, but fell incomplete.

That type of big play was what many were hoping would spark the upset and now that’s not even working. This is a key moment in the game because all the hope inside Davis Wade Stadium could be lost if Tennessee forces a punt and goes up 17-7.

But on the very next play, Davon Booth breaks a tackle in the backfield (a rare time Albert Reese IV misses a block) and runs 62 yards for a touchdown.

Celebrations, dances and cowbells go crazy…until everyone realizes there’s a flag on the play.

Mississippi State tight end Seydou Traore gets called for a holding penalty, bring the ball all the way back to the Bulldogs’ 30-yard line.

The Bulldogs eventually score a touchdown on this drive and Traore makes up for the holding with an acrobatic fourth quarter touchdown of his own.

But would the momentum swing of a big touchdown run impacted what happens the rest of the game?

What if there were two fewer Mississippi State penalties?

Specifically, the back-to-back penalties in the second quarter on the Bulldogs’ defense when it was leading 17-10.

The Volunteers started its drive at their own 25-yard line. On the first play, Hunter Washington was flagged for unnecessary roughness.

On the second, Tennessee completed a 27-yard pass that got an extra 15 yards on a roughing the passer penalty on Nic Mitchell.

In two plays and less than 40 seconds, the Volunteers were at the Bulldogs’ 15-yard line.

If those two penalties aren’t called, maybe Tennessee still scores a touchdown to tie the game. But they’d certainly use up more time and plays that increase the chances for something positive to happen for Mississippi State.

What if Kyle Ferries doesn’t miss a 42-yard field goal?

This certainly wasn’t a major moment because Tennessee went three-and-out after the missed field goal and the Bulldogs scored a touchdown on its next possession.

But how much different would the fourth quarter have played out if Mississippi State was leading 27-20?

What if Shapen hands the ball off to Bothwell on third-and-goal in OT?

It looks like Bothwell would have a great chance to score a touchdown if he got the handoff.

I’d love to know what was Shapen’s key to choose the pass option on the RPO play. Maybe it was the standup edge player on the wide side of the field?

At the point where Shapen has to decide to go run or pass, Tyre West is really the only defender to move with any significance. It does look like West is crashing down and will try to chase down Bothwell from behind.

If West is this key, oops, because West sees Shapen keep the ball and forces Shapen to scramble away.

But if you got back to that decision point, it looks like Bothwell will have to be one defender to get into the endzone.

The offensive line has it well-blocked and the left tackle (Jimothy Lewis Jr.) is in position to seal the linebackers.

If Jordan Mosley can block either the cornerback in front of him, or the safety standing in the end zone, Bothwell would have a great chance to score a touchdown.

Instead, Shapen has to avoid West and ends up slipping and falling a gain of zero yards.

It should also be noted that Evans didn’t become wide open until after Shapen committed to running and the defender covering Evans went in for the tackle.

What if Shapen doesn’t do a pump fake on fourth-and-goal?

First off, I like this offensive play call.

The Bulldogs get one of the fastest players in motion so that at the snap Evans is already running at full speed on a crossing route. Love that idea.

But initially I thought Tennessee had the route covered. Upon a rewatch, maybe it wasn’t as well-covered as I thought.

There appears to be a very small window where a hard-thrown pass with near-perfect placement would’ve been caught. There is a Tennessee defender crashing down on Evans from behind, but the window was there.

It’s unfair because of all the other “what if” moments, but this will go down as the biggest because it was the last play of the game.