Numbers Have Taken Wild Swing Since Last Time Hogs Faced Gamecocks

Arkansas walking into much different game in Nashville than it faced in Columbia

Arkansas Razorbacks coach John Calipari screams from the sidelines against the Texas Longhorns at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. / Nilsen Roman-Hogs on SI Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Kelvin Gragg, father of former Arkansas tight end star Chris Gragg, used to have a saying he'd spit out like clockwork on a weekly basis during his days as a football coach down in Warren.

"Boys, the big eye don't lie," he would say in reference to the camera filming every move of each game.

Well, when it comes to numbers, they usually don't lie either. That's why it was easy to see Arkansas was about to lose handily to last place South Carolina in Columbia, although falling behind by roughly six touchdowns in a basketball game was a bit unforeseeable.

And while those who don't spend endless amounts of time pouring over numbers will struggle to understand how it's possible, the scenario between Arkansas and South Carolina has flipped almost perfectly in the span of what will be roughly a week when they tip off the SEC Tournament.

The Razorbacks had only one data that could directly matter in their favor last time these two met, and that one, the Gamecocks' overall record, was deceptive at best. Lamont Paris' team had taken a Who's Who of college basketball to basically a coin flip over and over before things finally fell their way against Texas the Saturday before.

This time, with Wednesday's first round game being in Nashville on a neutral floor, it's South Carolina that finds itself with only one impact data point in its favor. However, it should be noted that one statistic is one that carries a great deal of weight.

See, neither John Calipari, nor the handful of Kentucky players he brought with him, have ever beaten a Paris coached team. The Arkansas coach has encouraged his athletes to play fearless, but in this case, they may need to give the speech encouraging Calipari to coach fearlessly.

He is currently 0-3 dating back to his Kentucky days and has only been close once. Two years ago, Paris got his first SEC win when his Gamecocks, who would finish 11-21, went into Rupp Arena and won for the first time in 14 years, 71-68.

That loss preluded a six-game winning streak by the Wildcats that was ended by Eric Musselman's Razorbacks.

Calipari's last two runs at taking down Paris' Gamecocks have come in losses with an average deficit of 18 points. However, that's as far as the bad news goes for Arkansas fans.

Everything tips wildly in the Hogs' favor beyond that. That is primarily because South Carolina isn't playing at home. 

The Gamecocks put up 69 points per game in their last four appearances in Columbia. However, once they hit the road, that average shrinks to 62. 

A big part of that drop off is how much better South Carolina utilizes Collins Murray-Boyles at home. Let's pause while Razorbacks fans shutter at the recurring nightmare of Murray-Boyles dropping another 35 on the Hogs, sending them hurtling downward into a play-in game.

However, the people of Arkansas can take solace in the fact he is much less potent elsewhere. Over the past four home games, Murray-Boyles has averaged over 25 points per game.

Meanwhile, in that same amount of games away from the friendly confines and rickety rims of Colonial Life Arena, that number falls dramatically to 15.5 per game. He may be the equivalent of two Gamecocks having a good game at home, but on the road he is a single really good player.

So while Murray-Boyles is less superhuman away from Columbia, Arkansas is pushing Hulk status. In their last four games not in South Carolina, the Hogs averaged 90 points per game and a perfect 4-0 record, including a pair of wins over ranked teams.

Each of the seven remaining Razorbacks has found his stride. Trevon Brazil is playing like it's November of 2022, but with better rebounding, and Jonas Aidoo has finally healed enough to show the man he was last season at Tennessee.

However, the biggest data point in the Hogs' favor hasn't even been revealed. It turns out there are exceptions to general coaching wisdom. 

Every year college coaches pound defensive technique and principles into their athletes because the shots may not fall in every arena, but no fans, weird backdrops or ugly gray floors can affect defense. Defense always travels.

Apparently not always. It certainly doesn't for South Carolina. 

This is the one area that makes the Gamecocks a much weaker team on the road. Paris' team held opponents to 67 points per game in their last four appearances in Columbia.

However, once they got on the bus for their last four road games, the defense and those rims stayed behind, ballooning the points per game given up to over 86.

For those keeping score at home, that is a 26-point swing in favor of their opponents on the road. Considering Arkansas just broke it's curse of losing games before 7 p.m., the odds look long for South Carolina

Obviously, a lot can happen. While the team is much improved, it is still Arkansas. 

Also. Paris simply has a knack for knocking off Calipari. However, if the Razorbacks come out attacking the basket and not getting hung up on shooting endless amounts of threes, the revenge tour the SEC inadvertently set up with the seeding will officially begin.

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