Hogs Will Dance in March, Might Create Some Madness

Arkansas' stock on the rise for what matters most to NCAA Selection Committee

Arkansas Razorbacks coach John Calipari has led teams to the NCAA Tournament 23 times and seems to have the Hogs on track for another trip to the Big Dance. Arkansas' 78-70 win over the Texas Longhorns on Wednesday in Austin, Texas, was a boost to the Hogs' resume. | Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

One of the most important criteria the NCAA Selection Committee uses to pick teams and seed the 68-team tournament known as March Madness is the NET Ranking. NET is the acronym for NCAA Evaluation Tool, a system adopted in 2018 that delves a bit deeper than the previous RPI (Ratings Percentage Index).

Lest you think it takes a professor from MIT to understand the NET, rest assured it's fairly simple. Four key factors are:

• Strength of opponent: How good the teams a team played against were 
• Location: Where the games were played (home, away, or neutral) 
• Efficiency: How well the team played, including offensive and defensive efficiency 
• Results: The outcome of the games, including wins and losses.

Now, here's why all this is important for Arkansas' basketball team. The Razorbacks have jumped 15 critical spots in the NET thanks to consecutive road wins against the Kentucky Wildcats and Texas Longhorns.

The Hogs were 59th in the NET before shocking the college hoops world with a 10-point win at then-No. 12 Kentucky. They were 47th a day later. Then coach John Calipari's team went to Texas and won by eight, jumping three more spots to 44th in the NET.

Kentucky fans brought out Calipari clown shirts. pic.twitter.com/zDMvMwJHRJ

— Mario A Maitland (@MarioMaitland_3) February 2, 2025

Many of Kentucky's fans, like the ones wearing anti-Calipari shirts above, made Rupp Arena a hostile environment for Arkansas' coach and players. But the Hogs rose to the occasion, shrugged off the pressure, then did it again against the hated 'Horns.

If the Razorbacks can finish the highly unlikely trifecta Saturday by knocking off Alabama, they'd likely leap at least into the mid-30s. That game is at Bud Walton Arena and Calipari knows his Hogs need all the help they can get to upset the Crimson Tide.

"We need our fans there early, standing," Calipari said after the beatdown of Texas, which dropped four spots in the NET to No. 29. "Look, I have been in that building when it’s nuts. I’ve been there. We  need it nuts now.

"From here on in we need it nuts because we are going to play some hard games. But we’ve proven now in two tough places that we can go on the road and win."

Tip off against 'Bama is set for 7:30 p.m. Saturday, with ESPN televising. The Tide is ranked No. 3 in the AP poll (sorry about that, now up to five acronyms) and No. 6 in the NET.

A win over Alabama would further validate what appears to be a turnaround for the Hogs. It might also cement a spot in the NCAA's Big Dance, barring a collapse akin to their disastrous 0-5 start in SEC play.

Before the win at Texas, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi had the Hogs as one of the "next four out" of the NCAA tourney. But the victory over the Longhorns gave Arkansas a 52% chance of getting in the bracket.

Alabama is the first of a two-game homestand for Arkansas, with LSU coming to Fayetteville Wednesday. The Tigers (No. 78 NET) topped the Hogs by four Jan. 14 in Baton Rouge and Calipari warned the rematch won't be easy, despite LSU's five-game losing streak.

Then the Hogs play at Texas A&M (No. 13 NET) and Auburn (No. 1 everywhere) before hosting rematches with Missouri (No. 18 NET) and Texas. Then they're on the road at South Carolina (No. 89), still winless in the SEC, and Vanderbilt (46) before finishing the regular season at home against Mississippi State (30).

Resonable stimates have the Hogs finishing 8-10 in the SEC. They're 13-8 overall and 3-6 in the SEC.

That projects them beating LSU, Missouri, Texas and Mississippi State at home and winning at South Carolina.

Not so fast, Calipari warned when asked about how tough the SEC is this season. He said for the umpteenth time there are no games that are guaranteed wins like he used to count on.

"Normally you say, 'OK, these four teams at the bottom, we can get these games.'" he said. "You think I'm looking forward to playing South Carolina or LSU? LSU already beat us. So, top to bottom, it's as good as it gets.

"I remember where there were three teams getting in and I was going nuts trying to get five. And I was basically BS-ing because we didn't deserve five. But then it was let's try to get seven, eight. Well shoot, now you're talking nine or 10. And guys, if you're doing it by the numbers, it should be maybe 10, 11, 12.

"We're all in one league beating each other up. People are 4-5, 4-6, 5-5, and you know what, if you're .500 in this league, geez, you're going to be a top six seed, seven seed. But I'm not worried about all that. I just hope we keep playing well to be honest with you."

Based on current NET Rankings, six of Arkansas' final eight regular-season games will be Quad 1 affairs. The Hogs are listed as 3-6 against Quad 1 teams. If they do finish 8-10 in the SEC, that'll guarantee them a bid in the NCAA Tournament.

Johnell Davis puts up a season-high on the road against Texas 🔥

24 PTS | 7-15 FG | 4-8 3PT | 5 REB | 4 STL pic.twitter.com/Yq9Lea3IWE

— B/R Hoops (@brhoops) February 6, 2025

That would be a feather in Calipari's invisible cap and restore some of the hard-earned respect the Hall of Famer acquired over the last three decades. To lead a team to 8-10 in the toughest league in the country — perhaps the most dominant conference ever — after an 0-5 start would be impressive. That would surely make CBS Sports change its tune from a story posted two weeks ago.

It was just 24 hours after Arkansas point guard Boggie Fland had thumb surgery and few folks figured the Hogs could turn their season around. But they'd erased a 12-point halftime deficit and beat Georgia by three for a much-needed victory on Jan. 22, the same day Fland went under the knife.

The next day, CBS Sports posted a story expressing little confidence in the Hogs or Calipari. Hard to blame them at that point, but the Razorbacks have discovered a new energy and determination, and yes, a fearlessness that has brought added confidence.

Five CBS writers predicted the Razorbacks' final SEC record and it was all doom and gloom. Two said Arkansas would finish 5-13, two more predicted 4-14 and one must've thought the Hogs would just quit with two games left because he had Arkansas at 2-14.

CBS' Matt Norlander forecast 4-14 and said, in part: "But with Boogie Fland's wrist surgery potentially sidelining for the rest of the season, it has me thinking Arkansas is set for some doom. How many road games is this team going to win in the SEC? "

Well, make it two and counting. The Hogs have won three of their last four and look capable of hanging tough with against most clubs, despite not having Fland.

"Fland's been the most valuable player on the roster, and unless Johnell Davis and DJ Wagner can transform into All American-level players out of nowhere, this is going to be a disastrous Year 1 for Calipari," Norlander said. " Keep in mind, Arkansas is basically seven deep now."

Turns out the Hogs won their last two precisely because Davis and Wagner played like All-American types. If that continues, even mighty Alabama could be in trouble.

HOGS FEED:

• Trump's comments on Hogs' past leaves Arkansas fans confused

• Calipari's Undying Belief in Star Allowed Prophetic Turnaround

• Projecting Razorbacks' offense can't use 20-year-old history baseline

• Hogs turn 'Horns down with dominant defensive performance

• Razorbacks topple Texas, pick up first SEC winning streak

• Subscribe and follow us on YouTube
• Follow HogsSI on X and Facebook