How Do SEC Teams Compare to Rest of NCAA Bubble?

What does hard data say about odds of Arkansas, Texas, Vandy, Oklahoma, Georgia going dancing?

Arkansas Razorbacks coach John Calipari reacts in frustration during the Oklahoma game at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-Hogs on SI Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Like it or not, John Calipari's Arkansas Razorbacks and several other members of the SEC are living life on the bubble.

Fortunately for them, the SEC is experiencing the most dominant year in college basketball history, so there has been plenty of room to prove themselves to the NCAA selection committee as the final two weeks of the regular season wrap. The question is how these opportunities will look to those making the decisions.

What has been put together is a simple system that will closely reflect how the committee will view each team. It takes into account how teams have fared in Quad 1 of the net rankings, how teams have performed against those considered currently in the field, deducts for bad losses, awards bonus points for big wins and even considers programs getting hot late.

With that being said, this is how each team viewed as a bubble team as of Monday morning charts out, along with a list of where they eventually fall in terms of deserving to get into the tournament.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas Razorbacks guard DJ Wagner goes in for a lay-up in an upset win over the No. 15 Missouri Tigers at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-Hogs on SI Images

Quad 1 wins: 4
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 0
Record over last eight games: 4-4
Wins over projected tourney teams: 5 (Six if you count preseason win over Kansas)
Wins over NET Top 15: 2
Current NET Ranking: #40
Total score: 15

Texas Longhorns

Texas Longhorns guard Tre Johnson (20) drives past South Carolina Gamecocks guard Arden Conyers (21) in the second half at Colonial Life Arena. | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 4
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 0
Record over last eight games: 3-5
Wins over projected tourney teams: 3
Wins over NET Top 15: 2
Current NET Ranking: #38
Total score: 12

West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia Mountaineers guard Joseph Yesufu (1) celebrates with West Virginia Mountaineers guard Sencire Harris (10) during the second half against the Cincinnati Bearcats at WVU Coliseum. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 5
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 0
Record over last eight games: 3-5
Wins over projected tourney teams: 4
Wins over NET Top 15: 3
Current NET Ranking: #48
Total score: 15

San Diego St. Aztecs

San Diego State Aztecs guard Nick Boyd (2) drives past Creighton Bluejays guard Jamiya Neal (5) during the second half at MGM Grand Garden Arena. | Jeffrey (Tyge) O'Donnell-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 4
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 1
Record over last eight games: 6-2
Wins over projected tourney teams on schedule: 2
Wins over NET Top 15: 1
Current NET Ranking: #49
Total score: 12

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Juwan Gary (4) passes the ball during the first half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Bryce Jordan Center. Penn State defeated Nebraska 89-72. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 5
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 0
Record over last eight games: 5-3
Wins over projected tourney teams on schedule: 5
Wins over NET Top 15: 0
Current NET Ranking: #54
Total score: 15

Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt Commodores guard Tyler Tanner (3) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 3
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 0
Record over last eight games: 3-5
Wins over projected tourney teams: 5
Wins over NET Top 15: 2
Current NET Ranking: #43
Total score: 13

VCU Rams

Virginia Commonwealth Rams guard Sean Bairstow (7) shoots the ball against Dayton Flyers forward DaRon Holmes II (15) during the first half of the game at University of Dayton Arena. | Matt Lunsford-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 0
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 1
Record over last eight games: 7-1
Wins over projected tourney teams: 1
Wins over NET Top 15: 0
Current NET Ranking: #31
Total score: 7

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Wake Forest Demon Deacons head coach Steve Forbes during the second half against the Florida State Seminoles at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum. | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 2
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 1
Record over last eight games: 4-4
Wins over projected tourney teams: 1
Wins over NET Top 15: 0
Current NET Ranking: #63
Total score: 6

Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma Sooners forward Jalon Moore (14) and guard Jeremiah Fears (0) react after a play against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second half at Lloyd Noble Center. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 5
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 1
Record over last eight games: 2-6
Wins over projected tourney teams: 6
Wins over NET Top 15: 1
Current NET Ranking: #51
Total score: 13

SMU Mustangs

Clemson Tigers forward Ian Schieffelin (4) passes the ball by SMU Mustangs forward Jerrell Colbert (20) during the second half at Moody Coliseum. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 0
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 0
Record over last eight games: 6-2
Wins over projected tourney teams: 0
Wins over NET Top 15: 0
Current NET Ranking: #39
Total score: 6

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia Bulldogs guard Savo Drezgic (3) looks on during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Reed Arena. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 2
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 0
Record over last eight games: 2-6
Wins overprojected tourney teams: 2
Wins over NET Top 15: 1
Current NET Ranking: #41
Total score: 7

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina guard RJ Davis drives against Virginia forward Anthony Robinson in the second half at Dean Smith Center. | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 1
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 1
Record over last eight games: 5-3
Wins over projected tourney teams: 0
Wins over NET Top 15: 0
Current NET Ranking: #45
Total score: 5

Xavier Musketeers

Xavier Musketeers guard Dante Maddox Jr. (21) watches the ball go out of bounds with Seton Hall Pirates guard Garwey Dual (33) behind him at Prudential Center. | Scott Rausenberger-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 1
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 0
Record over last eight games: 6-2
Wins over projected tourney teams: 2
Wins over NET Top 15: 0
Current NET Ranking: #53
Total score: 9

Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana Hoosiers forward Luke Goode (10) celebrates after a play during the second half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 4
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 0
Record over last eight games: 2-6
Wins overprojected tourney teams: 2
Wins over NET Top 15: 1
Current NET Ranking: #56
Total score: 9

Boise St. Broncos

Boise State head coach Leon Rice during the first half against Clemson at Littlejohn Coliseum in Clemson, S.C. Sunday, November 19, 2023. | Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

Quad 1 wins: 3
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 2
Record over last eight games: 6-2
Wins over projected tourney teams: 3
Wins over NET Top 15: 0
Current NET Ranking: #46
Total score: 10

Pitt Panthers

Pitt Panthers head coach Jeff Capel (right) talks to guard Jaland Lowe (15) during the first half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Quad 1 wins: 1
Losses to Quad 3, 4: 1
Record over last eight games: 3-5
Wins over projected tourney teams: 2
Wins over NET Top 15: 0
Current NET Ranking: #55
Total score: 5

So, after all of that, here are the final rankings of the teams trying to squeeze into those final spots of the NCAA Tournament. The Top 8 are considered to be into the field of 68.

1. West Virginia (15)
2. Arkansas (15)
3. Nebraska (15)
4. Vanderbilt (13)
5. Oklahoma (13)
6. Texas (12)
7 San Diego St. (12)
8. Boise St. (10)
-----------------------
9. Indiana (9)
10. Xavier (9)
11. Georgia (7)
12. VCU (7)
13. Wake Forest (6)
14. SMU (6)
15. Pitt (5)
16. North Carolina (5)

The one thing that becomes painfully obvious when doing a breakdown like this is not only how powerful conferences like the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten are overall, but how far a conference like the once mighty ACC has just dropped off the map. The big concern for No. 2 Duke is the Blue Devils played a small handful of tough games early in the season, but haven't had much challenge after the turn of the calendar.

It will be interesting to see how things shake out the final three games of the season, but as long as the top four teams on this list, including Arkansas, manage to win a couple of games, their spots should be secure.

HOGS FEED:

• Missouri coach heaps praise on Razorbacks

• Three storylines to watch ahead of spring football

• Davis' performance against Missouri is first by Hog in 20 years

• Hogs cinch NCAA Tourey bid by beating No. 15 Missouri

• Big Z's promise to Calipari gave Razorbacks leadership needed

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