Lastest Numbers Say Arkansas Razorbacks Likely to Be Chosen

Hogs see huge bounce in NET rankings, look to break day curse, lock in NCAA Tournament

Arkansas forward Trevon Brazile (4) scoops up the ball against Vanderbilt during the first half at Memorial Gym in Nashville. / Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — There was a lot of talk heading into this week about how many wins Arkansas needed to find a way into the NCAA Tournament.

The general consensus was two, but one might be enough if it was the right win. It turns out, the Razorbacks did just that.

The Hogs were sent tumbling in the NET rankings following their no-show performance against South Carolina. After weeks of staying relatively static around No. 40 with quality wins, Arkansas plummeted to No. 47.

However, by virtue of a 90-77 Quad 1 win in Nashville over Vanderbilt Tuesday night to push the Hogs to 5-9 in such games, the Razorbacks have catapulted back even higher than before to No. 39. This finally vaults Arkansas over Texas while also surpassing Vanderbilt.

This is a big deal because Mississippi State, which was slated to be a Quad 1 game Saturday, is now a Quad 2 opportunity thanks to Texas holding on in overtime in Starkville Saturday night. The Bulldogs were No. 30 in the NET prior to the loss, which is as low as a team can be and still count as a Quad 1 in a home game.

Instead, Chris Jans' team will come to Fayetteville ranked No. 33 despite seven Quad 1 wins and no bad losses. With Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Boise State all winning Wednesday, Tuesday's win was important because a loss without another regular season opportunity at making up a Quad 1 win would have possibly brought a halt to Arkansas' tournament dreams.

As for the Longhorns, their hopes are still alive. They jumped five spots to No. 41.

This allowed them to pass Vanderbilt, which is already a NCAA Tournament lock, despite Texas having three fewer overall wins, a worse winning percentage against Quad 1 teams (35.7%-41.7%) and a worse record agains Quad 2 (33.3%-57.1) while both are undefeated against the lower two quads.

Now Arkansas turns its attention to locking in its invitation. For a few weeks now, the Hogs have been a couple of conference tournament upsets away from potentially getting knocked out of the tournament all together despite their current 7-5 record against the SEC in the last dozen games.

A win over Mississippi State would not only pull the Razorbacks out of the possibility of having to face a team like Ohio State in the dreaded play-in game, but it would also likely move the Hogs up to the No. 10 line out of harm's way from being one of the last teams bumped from the tournament.

More importantly, it would put an end to the mental block Arkansas has when it comes to games played before 7 p.m., especially when in early time slots. The Hogs are currently 0-6 in day games against the SEC, and John Calipari desperately needs his team to shake its consistent bad play during daylight hours before the SEC and NCAA Tournament.

As for the win over Vanderbilt, it proved to the selection committee that Arkansas is still a quality team without forward Adou Thiero should his injury prove to be too bad to allow for a return. Winning in double-digit fashion on the road against a Commodores team that had just knocked off three consecutive ranked SEC teams shuts down that avenue for splitting hairs.

The Razorbacks close the regular season against No. 25 Mississippi State at Bud Walton Arena Saturday at 11 a.m. on the SEC Network.

HOGS FEED:

• Calipari, Hogs fighting Kentucky to add 5-star forward late, claim No. 1 class

• Legislators take second shot at passing Arkansas raffles act

• Razorbacks struck by lightning delay; come within strike of ending game

• Find out who, what to blame for long SEC basketball games

• Will selection committee punish Hogs' for Thiero's injury?

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