Razorbacks Wake Up to Startling Reality After Win Over Texas

Arkansas still in exact same danger of missing NCAA Tournament after perceived big win

Arkansas Razorbacks guard Billy Richmond sets up on defense against the Texas Longhorns at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. / Nilsen Roman-Hogs on SI Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — It wasn't the intention to wake up this morning and shower Arkansas fans in a lethal dose of crazy juice, but that's exactly what the facts dictate must happen. Just remember to not shoot the messenger.

According the most heavily relied upon metric the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses, the Razorbacks' dramatic, hard fought overtime win over Texas meant literally nothing last night. When the numbers were crunched, the NET rankings took at look at the Hogs' body of work and decided nothing happened at Bud Walton Arena late Wednesday night.

Despite having gone to Austin and beating Texas head-to-head earlier in the year while possessing the exact same overall record, SEC record, and number of Quad 1 wins, the Razorbacks came into Wednesday night's game ranked No. 40 while looking up at the Longhorns in the No. 39 spot. That left tournament prognosticators pretty much in lockstep agreement that Arkansas would need to prove itself by playing its way into the tournament as a No. 11 seed while Texas would get one of the last guaranteed slots as a No. 11 officially in the field.

Then the Hogs held off disaster and took down freshman Tre Johnson and technically his fellow Longhorn teammates who came along to watch him play, 86-81 in overtime. Their reward for the stoic performance down the stretch by veteran guard Nelly Davis at the free throw line was to wake up Wednesday morning, open up the newest NET rankings, and stare in disbelief as the Razorbacks continue to look up at No. 39 Texas from the exact same No. 40 spot the Hogs were in before the game tipped.

Sure, Arkansas has a better overall record than the Longhorns. Sure, it has a better SEC record.

There are those pesky head-to-head wins both at home and on the road. However, perhaps because of one simple metric, Texas is technically the better team — Quad 1 wins.

A lot of Hog fans probably went to bed last night and slept secure under the blanket of thought that John Calipari's team just picked up its fifth Quad 1 win. After all, it's been pounded into everyone's head that pretty much every SEC game would be a Quad 1 because of the difficulty of the league.

However, while Texas is a Quad 1 in Austin, the Longhorns fall just short of being a Quad 1 in Fayetteville. A team has to be in the Top 30 in NET rankings to be considered a Quad 1 at Arkansas.

With Texas sitting at No. 39, it was a Quad 2 win the Hogs picked up instead. Both teams are .500 in Quad 2 games and undefeated in anything lower, so the tiniest degree of separation surely has to come from quality of Quad 1 wins.

For Arkansas, the most notable win over a Quad 1 team comes on the road against NET ranked No. 14 Kentucky. Technically, the Razorbacks' win over NET ranked No. 12 Missouri should be a bigger win, but since it happened in Fayetteville, it doesn't carry as much weight in the eyes of the selection committee.

As for Texas, the Longhorns have Quad 1 wins over Kentucky and Missouri, although both are at home, which gives the slight edge to Arkansas. However, the last second comeback win over Texas A&M, which recently fell to No. 20 in the NET rankings, swings things back in the Longhorns' favor until further analysis.

The Razorbacks' other Quad 1 wins are a neutral site win over Michigan, currently rated No. 21 in NET, and Texas. Meanwhile, the Longhorns get credit for No. 50 Oklahoma on the road.

That brings the direct comparison to this:

Arkansas:
No. 12 Missouri (H)
No. 14 Kentucky (A)
No. 21 Michigan (N)
No. 39 Texas (A)

Texas:
No. 12 Missouri (H)
No. 14 Kentucky (H)
No. 20 Texas A&M (H)
No. 50 Oklahoma (A)

Logic says the Razorbacks beat, on average, higher ranked Quad 1 teams while only using home court advantage once. Yet, the Longhorns, with their lower overall average of Quad 1 wins and reliance on home court advantage, still edges an Arkansas team that has beaten them everywhere they've played.

That is presumably because of the final part of the equation. The NET rankings factor in not only average opponents' winning percentage, which considering how many tournament bound teams pile up on the Hogs' schedule one would assume goes in their favor, but also opponent's opponents' willing percentage.

Talk about drilling down to the tiniest detail.

That's right. The most likely explanation, and it should be noted that no one on the Razorbacks on SI staff stayed up all night calculating the win percentage of the opponents of all 25 teams Arkansas has played this year, for how Texas gets to claim it is a better team than the Hogs is their opponents' opponents.

Had Calipari thought things might be this tight when frantically putting together the schedule, he might have avoided Maryland-Eastern Shore and their schedule consisting of college basketball stalwarts Cairn University, Bryn Athyn and Gallaudet College.

Still, the best thing Arkansas can do right now is ignore the NET for now and push ahead. Beating South Carolina in Columbia this weekend, which is a much taller task than the average fan realizes, would give the Razorbacks another direct data point over Texas. The Longhorns got blasted in Columbia last weekend for the Gamecocks' first SEC win, which is a highly deceptive stat.

Right now Mississippi St. will count as a potential Quad 1 win at home, although if the Bulldogs fall a single spot, that opportunity goes away. Vanderbilt in Nashville is the only guaranteed Quad 1 game left on the Hogs' schedule.

That means even though so many Arkansas fans feel swell about their NCAA Tournament chances after knocking off Texas again, there is little breathing room for error. After all, nothing changed in the Razorbacks' world Wednesday night.

HOGS FEED:

• Hogs team no one in NCAA Tournament wants to face right now

• Arkansas avoids late collapse; makes free throws to sink Texas

• Predicting Razorbacks' entire football season now hilarious

• Former Razorbacks' QB Calcagni excited for new opportunity

• Signs clear Burks' time in Tennessee over

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