Where Auburn's NCAA Tournament Chances Stand as Selection Sunday Nears

It’s setting up to be a long two days and change for the Auburn Tigers, as they now await Selection Sunday to learn their postseason fate.

Auburn experienced an absolute implosion on Thursday afternoon in Nashville, Tenn., as it surrendered a 10-point lead with 10 minutes remaining to Tennessee to fall out of the SEC Tournament after just two games. An extended offensive collapse and defensive struggles allowed the Volunteers to go on a 20-0 run in the late stages of the second half, putting Auburn’s NCAA tournament hopes in further jeopardy.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi released his updated tournament projections on Friday morning, which had the Tigers as the second team out of the field. They entered Thursday as the Last Team In, but a Miami (OH) loss, along with a loss of their own, was enough to back them out of Lunardi’s bracket.

CBS Sports’ latest projection didn’t feature Auburn in the First Four Out nor the Last Four In, as they apparently believe the Tigers shouldn’t even be in consideration for one of the final at-large bids.

Overall, the situation concerning Auburn and multiple other teams on the bubble is certainly fascinating, with many moving parts that could alter the trajectory of the field.

Miami (OH) finished the regular season undefeated, but the Redhawks fell to UMass in their first game at the MAC Tournament on Thursday. Although they only boast one loss, some now have Miami on the verge of the tournament due to their weak strength of schedule.

However, Miami losing in its conference tournament is also bad for Auburn, as it means that the two MAC squads will likely find themselves in the field due to an automatic-qualifying bid from another team in the conference. Assuming Miami receives an at-large spot, a two-bid MAC would mean one less available at-large bid for the Tigers.

Currently, Lunardi’s Last Four In consists of Missouri, VCU, SMU, and Texas. His new First Team Out is Oklahoma, which defeated Texas A&M in dominant fashion on Thursday night.

Auburn holds a higher NET rating than four of those five teams, ranking No. 39 in the metric. Missouri ranks No. 58, VCU sits at No. 44, Texas ranks at No. 42, Oklahoma is listed at No. 47, and SMU is the only team to rank higher at No. 37.

Missouri, Texas, and SMU have already been eliminated in their respective conference tournaments, while VCU awaits its first matchup with Duquesne in the quarterfinals of the A-10 Tournament. The Sooners, however, are one of the hottest teams in college basketball right now, as they play their third game in as many days on Friday night against Arkansas in the quarterfinals.

Auburn head coach Steven Pearl went on a nearly 3-minute “rant” following the Tigers’ loss to Tennessee, making his case for why his team should earn an NCAA Tournament bid.

"So we scheduled a really hard out-of-conference schedule. We had some really quality wins in that streak,” Pearl said. “If you look at – this tournament is a team of who you can beat. If we're going to look at six teams on the bubble right now, Texas, SMU, VCU, Miami Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico, we have more top-25 NET wins than everyone in that group but Missouri. We have more top-50 (NET) wins than everyone in that group. We have two top-25 road neutral wins, more than everyone else on the bubble. We have more wins over the projected field than anyone else on the bubble.”

"If you look at the major metrics that they use — NET, KenPom, KPI, Strength of Record, and Wins Above the Bubble — we are better than every team in that group in at least five out of the seven categories, and in a couple of them six of the seven,” Pearl continued.

Overall, there isn’t much the Tigers can do to help their case before Selection Sunday. They faced numerous opportunities to secure a March Madness berth, but failed to perform on multiple occasions down the stretch of the season. Auburn’s metrics may be in its favor, but Pearl and company also own 16 total losses – no team has ever received an at-large bid with 16 or more losses.

All Auburn can do now is wait and sweat, but it’ll be interesting to see what the committee values more. Will they look at Auburn’s elite strength of schedule, NET ranking, and four Quad-1 wins, or is the Tigers’ overall record too much to overlook?