Everything 1,000 Simulations Had To Expose About Auburn’s Florida Matchup

After sifting through a plethora of simulations, the Auburn Tigers had these main outcomes with Florida looking ahead.

Sep 12, 2026; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers wide receiver Jeremiah Koger (4) celebrates after a play against the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles during the first quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Auburn Tigers are slated to take on the first SEC program of the season this Saturday against the Florida Gators, in a matchup that is seemingly getting harder to predict every single day. Just about everyone involved in this world has shared their opinion as to how this game will go, but recently, a novel method of predicting matchups released its findings.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each game 1,000 times, though it is only running at 33-21 on the season in terms of what the site refers to as ‘top-rated moneyline picks,’ so take these predictions with a grain of salt.

“The simulations average out to Byrum Brown throwing for 243 yards and 1.7 TDs for the Tigers, with Brown and Jeremiah Cobb each gaining 50-plus yards on the ground,” SportsLine’s Adam Thompson wrote. “For Florida, Philo goes for 236 pass yards and 1.7 TDs, Baugh for 74 rushing yards and another score.”

The model still likes Florida in this matchup, though ESPN’s FPI still gives a 0.2% edge to the Tigers as of the time of this article’s writing. Clearly, this game is going to be one for the ages, due to several key pieces on each team.

For Florida, 74 yards and a touchdown from Baugh would be a massive drop-off from his production this season, and given the quality of defense Auburn has, it would be quite difficult to imagine a scenario in which Baugh has that limited of a day and the Gators still win.

243 yards and (rounding to) two touchdowns for Byrum Brown would be a solid day for the veteran AAC transfer, who beat that number against Baylor but fell short against Southern Miss, though the number I am more interested in for this projection is the 50-plus rushing yards from Brown.

The Tigers’ quarterback, following a 1,000-yard rushing season last year at USF, has rushed for just 115 yards this season through two games, most of which came from a few long carries against Southern Miss. Against Baylor, Brown had just 27 yards on the ground, so nearly doubling that number against a strong Florida defense would be quite a step in the right direction.

As the model suggests, a lot will need to go the Tigers’ way to take down the Gators on Saturday, but if the team has improved as much this week as they did between the Baylor and Southern Miss games, the Tigers could very well surprise some people this weekend.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Enjoy our content? Make AuburnOnSI a preferred source to see more stories from us on Google by clicking here.