What's at Stake as Auburn Tigers Take on Ole Miss Rebels

After starting SEC play 5-3, the Auburn Tigers have lost six of their last seven games, with the lone win coming last Saturday at home against Kentucky. With just three games remaining and head coach Steven Pearl’s squad near the bubble, is Auburn’s game against the Ole Miss Rebels a must-win if the Tigers want to be in the NCAA Tournament?

Auburn takes on Ole Miss at home on Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. CT on the SEC Network.

The short answer? Probably. Auburn enters the game as one of the last four teams in the field via ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s version of Bracketology, USA Today has Auburn as an 11-seed, and CBS Bracketology currently has the Tigers listed as a 10-seed.

Even with the No. 1 strength of schedule in the country and six wins against the projected field, 14 losses on the season would be difficult to overcome, especially if the latest were to come at home against an Ole Miss team that is No. 84 in Kenpom and No. 92 in the NCAA Net Rankings.

Auburn has already beaten the Rebels once this season, securing a 78-66 win in Oxford behind 19 points from Keyshawn Hall, 17 from Tahaad Pettiford, and 16 from KeShawn Murphy. Though, if recent form is any indication, I would count on Murphy and Pettiford to lead the way for the Tigers in the second game of the season series.

The only possible way for Auburn to still be an at-large team with a loss to the Rebels would be for the Tigers to follow it up seven days later with a blowout victory at Alabama, and even that might not be enough given Auburn’s dreadful recent form.

Though it is not unheard of for power conference teams with less-than-stellar records to make the tournament thanks to standout wins and difficult schedules, the alarming rate at which Auburn’s season has come undone will be a major concern for the selection committee.

The Tigers’ main weakness has been their defense, which has been nearly unfathomably bad in the last seven games. Auburn has allowed 85.9 points per game during that span, including 91-point performances by Oklahoma and Mississippi State, two of the worst teams in the SEC this season. For perspective, Alabama is last in the SEC in points against at 83.6 points per game on the season.

College basketball’s vast array of advanced metrics reflect the struggles, too, with Auburn rated an abysmal No. 112 in defensive rating via Kenpom and No. 108 in defense via EvanMiya Analytics. That rating would be Auburn’s lowest since the 2020-21 season, when the Tigers ranked No. 102 in defensive rating and missed the NCAA Tournament after a 13-14 season.

Even with some of the best wins this season by any of the teams near the bubble (at Florida, vs. St. John’s, and vs Arkansas), Auburn can not afford to lose any more games in the regular season, lest it force the committee to make an extremely tough decision.