Respected CFB Analyst breaks down Baylor vs Auburn
The Baylor Bears and Auburn Tigers are just a couple of days away from their week one showdown in Waco. Both teams have high expectations for this season, but only one team will come out of this game with a 1-0 record.
Earlier this week, respected CFB analyst Josh Pate dove into the matchup and gave his prediction for this Friday night clash.
“Sawyer Robertson, it’s pretty safe to say edge goes his way if it just comes down to a quarterback vs. quarterback matchup," said Pate. "The funny thing about this is, you kind of know the ceiling and the floor for Robertson. I’ve got no clue what the ceiling or the floor is for Jackson Arnold."
Sawyer Robertson enters this season as one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12. He had a breakout season in 2024, and now some are even picking him to win the Heisman Trophy. He'll clash against former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold, who is taking over at quarterback for Auburn. Arnold's struggled early in his career, but if he can finally live up to expectations with the Tigers, he's going to be hard to beat. So far, there's no evidence to believe he'll make a complete 180 in his first games with his new team, so the advantage goes to Robertson.
“I’ve got as much respect for Dave Aranda as the defensive coach as almost anyone in the country," said Pate. "So I think to myself, if there’s a turnover-prone quarterback who’s starting his first game at a new school and his team has really good offensive line play and I know they want to run the ball on me, what’s the last thing personnel-wise I’m gonna let them do? So I think Dave Aranda sells out in every way imaginable to try and stop the run. If he’s still defenseless against it, it’s a long night. It’s 30-10 final score, edge Auburn. But if you blow folks off the ball all night, the quarterback problem takes care of itself. Baylor was not great against the run last year, so that’s kind of a non-negotiable.”
Last year, Baylor ranked 70th in rushing yards allowed per game. They've made some additions to their front seven to help out in the run game, but will it be enough? Auburn's offensive line is big and nasty, and if they let the Tigers run the ball down their throats, it's going to be a long night. They need to stuff the run and force Arnold to beat them with his arm.
“Auburn’s wide receiver group can take over the game," Pate explained. "This is yet another area of this game where I look at guys like Cam Coleman and, frankly, I don’t know that Baylor’s got an answer for him. Size-wise, I don’t think they’ve got a guy that can man up with him and then secondly, if Auburn’s running the ball effectively, Baylor’s gotta make a decision. I don’t think these DBs are gonna have a ton of help and that Auburn wide receiver group could take over the game if the quarterback play lets it.”
While Baylor wants to make Arnold drop back and throw the ball, they'll still be putting themselves in some disadvantaged situations. The Bears' passing defense was not good last year, and Auburn has some of the best receivers in the country. They can make an average quarterback look good, so the Bears must find a way to stay glued to Auburn's receivers and force Arnold to throw into some tight windows.
“Auburn’s gonna win this game,” Pate claimed. "It may not be pretty, but it’s the kind of game where you go in there, you get your win and then you get to the airport as quick as you can. As you take off you say, ‘A ton of mistakes tonight. We’ll get ’em cleaned up. But we avoided disaster.’ I think Auburn’s going to avoid disaster and they’re gonna win in Week 1.”
This matchup seems like a coin flip. Vegas has Auburn as a two or three-point favorite, and ESPN's FPI gives Baylor a 51.8% chance to win. This game could go either way, but Pate expects Auburn to win an ugly game in McLane Stadium.
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Luke is a writer for the Baylor Bears On SI. He's an LSU graduate and previously covered the Tigers for two years. He also covers the New Orleans Saints and Formula 1. Luke's passion for sports and storytelling led him to become a sports writer.